Baltimore Ravens vs. Cleveland Browns betting guide: how to bet Week 11 matchup

The Cleveland Browns head back home to take on their AFC North Division rival, the Baltimore Ravens, this week. The Ravens, with a healthy Lamar Jackson at the helm, are heavy 7.5 point favorites on the road. The total for this game is set at a low 39.

The Browns got smacked by the Ravens in Baltimore in Week 2, 41-17. Remember, Quinshon Judkins was in his first NFL game due to his beginning-of-the-year suspension. While one player does not make a team, a balanced offensive attack does. Nothing against Dylan Sampson or Jerome Ford, but they are no Quinshon Judkins.

In that game, Judkins carried the ball ten times for 61 yards, for an average of 6.1 yards per carry. The Ravens’ defense has only gotten worse over the year, mainly due to injuries, so expect more Judkins this go around for the Browns.

Judkins returned last week against the Jets from a shoulder injury he sustained against the New England Patriots. It was not the most efficient game for Judkins, but he got more than 20 carries for the fourth time this season.

Believe it or not, this week’s rushing attempts prop is set at 17.5. That is a number he has gone over five times this season. As for his rushing yards, that is set at 70.5. He nearly reached this number on just ten carries in his first-ever NFL game. That game was also a blowout, which usually prevents the losing team from running the ball. Expect Judkins to get a lot of touches and a lot of yards this week.

Jerry Jeudy came back to life this past week against the Jets. Yes, the Jets traded away all their cornerbacks, but Jeudy has struggled against the worst secondaries in the NFL all season long.

Against the Jets, fresh off the bye, Jeudy caught six balls on 12 targets for 78 yards and a touchdown. That was the first time Jeudy eclipsed 50 yards receiving since Week 2 against the Ravens, where he caught four balls for 51 yards.

Again, the Ravens’ defense is beat up and also bad. They rank in the bottom third in the NFL when it comes to opponent passing yards. If Gabriel can keep his play clean and find Jeudy in the inevitable open spots Baltimore will leave, Jeudy should have no problem having a productive afternoon.

Jeudy’s receiving prop is set very low, as it has been most of the season, at 38.5. His touchdown prop is set at an enticing +425. It really depends on which Jerry Jeudy shows up to play this week. If we get last week’s rendition of Jeudy, he will sail over these numbers, potentially making you a lot of cash.

Like last week, you should focus on the tight ends. The Ravens are actually very good against tight ends, allowing only two touchdowns from that position all season long. That does not mean that Harold Fannin Jr. cannot go over his 34.5 receiving yards prop.

Fannin only went under that number three times this year, and they came in consecutive games, from Weeks 3-5. In Week 2 against the Ravens, Fannin Jr. hauled in five balls for 48 yards.

Lastly, Dillon Gabriel has his passing yards set at a very low 176.5. That number is deserved, though, as he has only eclipsed this in two games this season. Again, this Ravens defense is not good. Gabriel will have his opportunities to sling the ball if he wants to. Gabriel, though, will likely decide to play it safe and check the ball down with short and safe passes.

The spread and total are scary; it may be safer to just stick with some of your favorite player props in this bout. There is little reason to expect and sort of downturn from Quinshon Judkins when it comes to attempts, even if the team is down. Judkins is their best offensive player and is capable of explosive plays at any given moment.

The Browns may be in the middle of a ‘lost’ season, but these are the games that can rejuvenate a team and its fanbase, beating a successful division rival at home. The Ravens need to stack wins thanks to their sluggish start to the season. The Browns can put all their progress in the back seat if they come out and beat the Ravens. That path lies in the hands of the rookies, Judkins and Gabriel.