Cleveland Browns vs. New York Jets betting guide: how to bet Week 10 matchup

The Cleveland Browns are fresh off their bye week and are ready to head to the Meadowlands to face the New York Jets. This line, along with player props, has seen a ton of movement following the trade deadline earlier this week.

This spread opened at Browns +2.5 and has since moved to Browns -2.5. The total was also set low and has barely moved, at 37.5.

The Jets have traded their two cornerbacks, Sauce Gardner and Michael Carter II, and their top defensive lineman, Quinnen Williams. There were rumors that Jermaine Johnson and Breece Hall could have been moved as well, but they are still Jets.

This opens up many possibilities for a Browns team looking to get back on track. Dillon Gabriel had arguably the worst game of his career before the bye up in Foxborough against the Patriots. He threw two interceptions and had a QBR of 15.9. Expect positive regression against a Jets defense that has no one left, especially in the secondary.

Gabriel’s passing yards prop is at 185.5, a number he has exceeded in just two starts, against the Vikings (190) and the Steelers (221). Before the trade, the Jets were nearly a top-ten unit against the pass. That number will certainly go down with the absence of their two top corners. Do not expect Gabriel to go wild through the air, as the passing game is likely to run through the tight ends yet again.

Expect Quinshon Judkins, who is off the injury report this week, to go bananas against a depleted Jets defense that was already in the bottom third of rushing yards allowed per game. Judkins, despite his three TD performance, was not efficient in his last full game. He also struggled early against the Patriots before leaving with an injury. The Jets provide a spot to touch the ball 20+ times, score a touchdown or two, and really set the tone for the entire game.

Judkins’ rushing prop is set at a high 85.5, which he has only surpassed twice this year. He did it against much better defenses in the Packers and Vikings. There is no reason to doubt that Judkins can not approach 100 yards in this game. In case you were wondering, 100+ rush yards for Judkins is priced at +180.

If you are not sold on the yards, his rush attempts are at 19.5, which he has eclipsed three times this season. Again, the Browns will do what they can to build Gabriel’s confidence back up by controlling the clock with their running game. 20 carries for Judkins is most certainly not out of the question.

As for the pass catchers, Jerry Jeudy can't be trusted. There have been too many goose eggs on his stat sheet to place any American Dollars on him to do anything worthwhile. Instead, focus on David Njoku and Harold Fannin Jr.

Both of these stud tight ends are working their way back from injuries that were not considered to be overly serious. Fannin Jr. and Njoku are both off the injury report for this week’s game. Both Fannin Jr. and Njoku have had 35 or more yards in five of their last seven games. Both are almost guaranteed to catch three or four balls at least. Forget Jerry Jeudy and target both of these tight ends for receiving yards or even receptions. You could also sprinkle on their anytime touchdown props.

The only good news coming out of Florham Park, NJ, is Garrett Wilson returning to practice. Fortunately for the Browns, they have a great passing defense. Justin Fields’ passing yards are set even lower than Gabriel’s, believe it or not, at 171.5. Fields has three games this season with less than 50 yards passing. In the other four games he has started, he has eclipsed 200 yards. If the Jets are down in this game, it is likely Fields will have to make things happen through the air.

The best way to attack this game as a bettor is to look at a fresh Browns team off the bye and see what their game plan will be. They will want to control the clock with their running game and short, safe passes. The Browns should win this game, as highlighted in SI's bye-week win total breakdown, but there are other, maybe even safer, ways to approach it from a betting perspective.