Cleveland Browns vs San Francisco 49ers Betting Guide: How to bet the Week 13 matchup

The Cleveland Browns are looking for back-to-back wins for the first time this season. They get an opponent that is coming off consecutive wins and has not lost on the road since Week 8 in Houston.

This is also the perfect opportunity for Shedeur Sanders to grab a hold of the starting QB job and not let go of it for the rest of the season.

The Browns are 4.5-point underdogs at home, and the total is extremely low yet again, sitting at 36.5.

The 49ers do not have a world-beating defense with their injuries to players like Nick Bosa and Fred Warner. That being said, they did hold the Panthers to just nine points in Carolina last week.

The 49ers are very vulnerable against the pass, ranking 26th in the NFL in pass yards against per game. They are a top-ten unit against the run, however.

As highlighted in last week’s betting guide, Quinshon Judkins has been getting less and less efficient as the season has worn on. Last week, against a weak Raiders defense and playing with the lead, Judkins had 16 carries for 47 yards. That is 2.9 yards per carry, his worst since the Patriots game in which he sustained an injury.

This week, Judkins’ attempts sit at a juiced 17.5, and his yards sit at 67.5. If he can somehow find his efficiency against a top-ten rush defense, these numbers are very low. If he continues to get worse and worse, unders may be the look for Judkins this week. Also, the 49ers are going to want Shedeur to throw the ball, likely stacking some boxes to prevent Judkins from getting going.

As for Shedeur, he had a modest game against Las Vegas. He was 11 for 20 for 209 yards, including a beautiful downfield pass and a long touchdown. The 49ers are near the bottom in pass defense, so Shedeur will certainly look to get going.

There were comments that Shedeur will look to throw the ball downfield more, and he did just that last week. Expect that to continue against a bad pass defense. Cedric Tillman is getting healthier and healthier, and Jerry Jeudy seems to have found some sort of stride. Add in Harold Fannin and David Njoku, and Sanders will have plenty of capable options to throw to all over the field. You can include Dylan Sampson as well, the recipient of Sanders’ first career touchdown.

We all know the Browns' defense is very good. Unfortunately for them, they go against arguably the best back in the NFL in Christian McCaffrey. McCaffrey has not been super efficient rushing the ball on the ground, but he has been a monster receiving the ball. If the front seven can find a way to slow down McCaffrey, the Browns may be able to keep this close.

Shutting down McCaffrey is obviously key number one, but the 49ers’ receiving core is healthy again, sans Brandon Aiyuk. Purdy will look to push the ball downfield to McCaffrey, Kittle, and his healthy receivers. If the Browns can make his life difficult by shrinking the pocket and pressuring and hitting him, the score will remain low. A low score leads to a better chance for the Browns to cover and maybe even win outright.

The 49ers need a win to keep pace in both the NFC West and the NFC Wildcard picture. The Browns are looking to gain momentum heading into the final weeks of the year and decide if Shedeur Sanders is their QB of the future.

The total is 36.5, so points will be at a premium. Coming off a short week, having to travel to a cold-weather environment only gives the Browns an advantage. The rest is up to Shedeur Sanders and this defense to slow down an offense that wants to confuse you, creating space for big plays downfield.

That being said, there just may be value on the Browns to cover the 4.5 at home. At worst, they can be a great leg for your Wong teaser, boosting them to +10.5.