One Advanced Analytics Model Projects Another Disaster of a Season for Browns

While Cleveland attempts to right the ship after two straight losing seasons, the turnaround might be further away than some want to admit.

Cleveland Browns head coach Todd Monken calls out to his players during team OTAs at CrossCountry Mortgage Campus of the Cleveland Browns in Berea, Ohio on June 2, 2026. | Mike Cardew / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Everyone seems to be feeling upbeat this week at the Cleveland Browns home in Berea. Jared Verse showed up looking explosive in his first practice with the team, head coach Todd Monken said the team has not one, but two starting-level quarterbacks, and the team has been sending out viral posts from the throwing sessions on a daily basis.

However, not everyone seems to be sharing this optimism for the Browns’ upcoming season.

ESPN published its initial Football Power Index ratings and projections for the 2026 season, and the Browns appear further away from the stated goal of winning it all, than where they finished last season.

According to ESPN’s model, Cleveland is ranked 30th in the 32-team league, due to a -5.5 rating. Only the Jets and Dolphins are ranked below the Browns, according to ESPN Analytics.

ESPN’s model also gives the Browns a 0.1 percent chance of winning Super Bowl LXI, and a 0.3 percent chance of even making it that far. Cleveland’s odds within the division aren’t great either, with ESPN Analytics giving them just a 1.1 percent chance of taking the AFC North. Only the Dolphins and Cardinals have less chances of winning their respective divisions, according to the model.

The only spot where the Browns look to be high on any list within ESPN Analytics’ projections is when it comes to projecting the first overall pick, where Cleveland appears with the fourth highest probability: a 12.8 percent chance that’s only surpassed by the Dolphins, Cardinals and Jets. Cleveland’s chances at landing a Top-5 pick for next year’s draft are also better than a simple coin flip, at 53.3, according to ESPN’s model.

What do these projections actually mean for the Browns?

For the team itself, absolutely nothing. Players and coaches must focus on the task at hand, striving to get better with each passing day. Games that count won’t be played until September, so there’s a lot of work to be done from now until then. 

However, ESPN’s model could serve as a warning for those who believe a big leap forward is inevitable for Cleveland under Monken’s guidance. 

Remember, he’s never been a head coach before, none of his three coordinators have held these positions before, either. The team’s quarterback position is still unresolved, despite what we’ve been hearing during the voluntary portion of the workouts, and the team just did away with its most talented player since Jim Brown. 

While the Browns may be reluctant to admit the team is in full rebuilding mode, trading Myles Garrett away in the same offseason as a dramatic staff overhaul took place signals otherwise. And during these rebuilding processes, sometimes things do tend to get worse before they get better.