Latest Buccaneers Win Total Projection Should Worry Fans

If this win projection is reality, this would be a stressful 2026 season.

Nov 9, 2025; Tampa, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) stands on the field during the fourth quarter against the New England Patriots at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jonathan Dyer-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

We are just over a week away from training camp, and there are still plenty of unknowns when it comes to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

The team went through a roster and staff overhaul this offseason, so the anticipation of seeing whether or not this team can eclipse its win total and return to the postseason after missing out in 2025 is at an all-time high.

Many sources have the Bucs' win total around 8.5 wins in 2026, but according to Pro Football Focus, Tampa Bay won't go over that, which would likely keep them out of the playoffs for a second consecutive season.

PFF Averages 8.32 Wins for Buccaneers

8.32 wins would result in the Buccaneers not hitting their win total, but while many would believe this would prevent them from getting into the playoffs, they might get lucky.

While the PFF win average for the Bucs is low, it is still the highest of the NFC South.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers head coach Todd Bowles Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The next closest in wins is the New Orleans Saints with 7.65, followed by the Atlanta Falcons with 7.36 and finally the Carolina Panthers with 7.01.

It's expected to be another tight race in the South, but if PFF is correct with their projections, then that would mean the Bucs get into the playoffs as the division champs despite not hitting their win total mark.

Bucs Must Hit Mark

While PFF's average win totals indicate the Bucs would get into the playoffs, it's hard to imagine them getting to that point in a division that seems to have improved this offseason.

The Saints and Panthers improved their rosters, and while the Falcons may look like the odd man out of the group, they could always surprisingly make some noise with a new coaching staff of their own.

With that, it would be important for the Bucs to make sure they get over the .500 mark to position themselves well to reach the postseason.

The NFC South may still be the NFL's worst division, but it's gotten better.

And if the Bucs want to make sure they don't turn one down year into an avalanche, they must hit on all cylinders throughout the season in order to secure a playoff spot — whether it be as a division champ or as an at-large qualifier.

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