3 Reasons the Buccaneers Will Beat Out the Saints in the NFC South in 2026

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers split their series with every NFC South rival in 2025, finishing with an 8-9 record and missing out on a division title for the first time since 2020.

Now, they seek to climb back atop the pile and be crowned NFC South champions once again in 2026, and to do that, they'll have to best their division rivals and do better than they did last year. We went over why the Bucs should be able to do that against the Panthers and Falcons, but the last NFC South team could be a bigger challenge.

The New Orleans Saints have been a pain in Tampa Bay's side for some time now, and although they finished with a 6-11 record last season, they've made a few improvements and shown enough life to prove they could be Tampa Bay's biggest threat in 2026.

That being said, the Buccaneers can still get the job done against New Orleans in 2026. Here are a few reasons why Tampa Bay should have the upper hand:

The Saints' Roster is Still Missing Some Crucial Pieces

New Orleans Saints wide receiver Ronnie Bell (85) celebrates with quarterback Tyler Shough (6) and wide receiver Kevin Austin Jr. (81) | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

There are a few things to be excited about with New Orleans' roster. Quarterback Tyler Shough still looks like he could be the real deal, and the Saints bolstered their receiving corps with the selection of wideout Jordyn Tyson. Additionally, they picked up running back Travis Etienne in free agency.

Outside of that, though, things get rough. The addition of David Edwards to the offensive line in free agency might not be enough for a pass-blocking unit that finished 29th in pass-block win rate last year. Chris Olave could be a strong option at wide receiver when he's healthy alongside Tyson, but they don't have impressive receiving depth outside of that.

On the defensive side of the ball, Demario Davis' departure has left a hole in the linebacker room that the re-acquisition of Kaden Elliss might not be able to fill. New Orleans' cornerback room, headed by Kool-Aid McKinstry, is still a major question mark heading into 2026 (just like Tampa Bay's is).

The Saints have improved, but overall, they have fewer answers across the board than Tampa Bay does.

Tyler Shough Still Has to Prove Himself

New Orleans Saints quarterback Tyler Shough (6) in action against the Atlanta Falcons in the third quarter at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

We gave our props to Shough above, and he earned them after a string of strong performances toward the end of the year. But he has to prove he can play like that consistently.

Shough ranked a dreadful 41st among qualifying quarterbacks in pressure-to-sack rate, so that's a huge aspect of his game he'll have to work on. Shough had a decent depth of target, but he converted just 20.6% of his 34 deep-ball attempts, and both his success rate (45.1%) and his EPA/play (0.029) were middling.

There was a lot to like about what Shough did last season. But he's unproven as a quarterback, and he'll have to perform in 2026 with more film on him and higher expectations. That's something the Buccaneers can take advantage of next season.

Tampa Bay Can Shut Down Their Run Game

New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara (41) high fives New Orleans Saints running back Devin Neal (24) | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Saints brought on new running back Travis Etienne from the Jacksonville Jaguars, and on the surface, that should help their rushing attack. But the Bucs should be a good match for New Orleans in the run game defensively.

The Bucs were the No. 5 defense in the NFL last year in rushing yards per play, and they were able to play the Saints well on that front. In two games against the Bucs, New Orleans racked up just 3.98 yards per carry, below league average, and had just 187 total yards on the ground.

Etienne could help here, but he also only averaged 2.0 yards per carry in the only game he played against Tampa Bay in his career. The Bucs defense is always very stout against the run and proved it could be against Kellen Moore's offense, too, and if that trend continues next year, Tampa Bay will make Shough have to beat them through the air.

New Orleans will also have Alvin Kamara still a part of the squad, but at his age and given his recent production, he shouldn't move the needle too much. Stop Etienne, and the Bucs stop New Orleans' rushing offense.

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