Was the Buccaneers' Win Over the Panthers a Fluke? What the Data Says

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers dominated the Carolina Panthers. But how real was the turnaround?

Tampa Bay Buccaneers head coach Todd Bowles before the game at AT&T Stadium. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers won a must-win game in a huge way last Sunday, beating the Carolina Panthers 43-13 on the road. That win puts them third in the NFC South, but now, they're the only NFC South team with a positive point differential.

The win could be exactly what they needed to get back on track. But is Tampa Bay really finding a rhythm? Or will it burn out and revert back to its losing ways against the Atlanta Falcons?

The Bucs still have a lot of work to do. But the data indicates that at least one aspect of Tampa Bay's squad is as real as it gets.

Tampa Bay's Defense is No Fluke

Tampa Bay Buccaneers linebacker Yaya Diaby (0) and defensive tackle Vita Vea (50) | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Bucs had a slow start to the year on defense against the Cincinnati Bengals and the Cleveland Browns. After that, though? The defense has been excellent, and it has kept Tampa Bay in just about every game it's played so far this year.

The Bucs are third overall in EPA/play on defense, per Sumersports (they're also ninth in success rate allowed, which is also impressive). Based on that metric, they're third overall in pass defense and sixth overall in run defense. The Bucs are led by their excellent secondary, and while the pass rush has faltered, it came alive against the Panthers on Sunday to the tune of five sacks.

Rookies like Josiah Trotter and Keionte Scott are playing good football. Tampa Bay's run-stopping prowess remains, but the pass defense has elevated after strong performances by Zyon McCollum and Jacob Parrish.

The defense has proven that it can play football. But what about the offense? Was their performance on Sunday indicative of what the Bucs can do going forward?

The Run Game Impresses... But What About the Passing Game?

Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Sean Tucker (44) celebrates with quarterback Baker Mayfield | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Tampa Bay has won just two games this year, and both times, they did it off the back of running back Bucky Irving. Tampa Bay's running game is currently seventh overall in the NFL, and Irving is 11th in EPA/play (+0.015) and 15th in success rate (43.3%).

The passing game, though, remains a mystery. It's been abysmal so far in 2026, ranking 31st in the NFL in EPA/play and dead last in passing yards per game. It was barely tested against Carolina, as quarterback Baker Mayfield only threw 11 passes.

The Bucs need a better passing game to win some football games, and Sunday's game did not prove that they can do that.

They'll have another chance to try and get better in that area against the Atlanta Falcons next Sunday at home. A win in that game would put Tampa Bay firmly in contention of the division title, as the Bucs are just 1.5 games back of the division lead as it stands.

Mayfield will have to throw more against Atlanta than he did against Carolina. Will he improve on a rough start at the beginning of the year? Or will the pass game continue to falter? We'll find out soon.

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