Super Bowl LVII Betting Guide: Five Eagles-Chiefs Bets to Hammer

Super Bowl LVII is here. Here's five bets to absolutely hammer on Sunday to roll in the dough.

Author:
Logan Bell
Publish date:
Feb 11, 2023 5:53 PM EST

In this story:

Kansas City Chiefs

Philadelphia Eagles

Super Bowl LVII is here, and millions of dollars will be wagered on the game across the country.

Here's our picks for the big game between the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs:

Total Points: Under 51 (WynnBet -108)

There’s nothing that gets the Super Bowl blood flowing like a sweaty, uncomfortable, and downright unenjoyable, under bet. While this game involves two NFL All-Pros at quarterback and two potent offenses, that doesn’t always translate into a shootout. There are many avenues and trends that can help us get us under a key number of 51.

You’ve only need to see the last two Philadelphia Eagles playoff games to know that they are very willing and capable of sitting on their leads. The combination of their elite offensive line, Jalen Hurts’ legs, and their solid group of running backs, the Eagles will run the ball on consecutive plays and turn on “Chew Clock”.

In the event they get a one or two-score lead in the second half, we can see this strategy in full effect to keep the ball away from Mahomes. Meanwhile, the Chiefs have become more comfortable playing ball control and sustaining long drives in the last two years.

While outstanding at their positions, Mahomes and Hurts aren’t fully healthy. The last time we saw these players, Mahomes and his sprained ankle gimped down the right sideline to help set up the game-winning field goal in the AFC Championship.

In the NFC, Hurts looked as inaccurate as we’ve seen him all year as he’s been nursing an injury to his throwing shoulder. No one wants to see it in a game of this magnitude, but if one of these stars were to leave the game, our under benefits. It’s also worth noting that three Chiefs receivers left their last game early and did not return.

Under Trends:

- Since 2017, Playoff Underdogs (Chiefs) that average 9+ MORE Passing Yards than their opponent:

11-4 to the Under

11-3 Against the Spread

- Since 2011, Playoff Underdogs (Chiefs) that average 265+ Passing Yards and their opponents average less than 265 Passing Yards:

13-6 to the Under

14-3 Against the Spread

- Since 2019, Underdogs with 11+ Days of Rest:

4-0 to the Under

0-4 Straight Up

- Playoff team coming off a game that included 10 or less Passing First Downs from both teams (Eagles and 49ers combined for 10):

12-4 to the Under

1st Quarter vs 3rd Quarter – Most Points Scored: 3rd Quarter (FanDuel -144)

Buried in the Scoring Props section of FanDuel, under Quarters, we have a bet that’s been more lopsided in the past than the odds would suggest. Since Super Bowl XLIV in 2010, the third quarter has posted 10-2-1 record against the first quarter. This includes a 5-0-1 record in the last six Super Bowls.

- Last 13 Super Bowls:

Third Quarter – 172 Total Points (13.2 per game)

First Quarter – 107 (7.92)

- Last 6 Super Bowls:

Third Quarter – 96 (16.0 per game)

First Quarter – 42 (7.0 per game)

The -144 odds imply a 59.02% chance of winning, meanwhile the third quarter has won 76.9% since 2010.

Miles Sanders Over 13.5 Rushing Attempts (FanDuel +102)

When the Eagles do go into their conservative, run-heavy approach, we typically see Miles Sanders replaced by backup running backs Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott. This was most likely to preserve Sanders’ health for future contests.

Well, this is the last game of the season and Sanders is a free agent this summer. It’s more likely than not, that this is the former 2 nd round pick’s last game with Philadelphia, so injury isn’t on the list of concerns anymore.

This postseason, we’ve seen Sanders carry the ball 17 and 11 times in two no contests. The matchup against Kansas City boasts one of the closer spreads (-1.5) that Philly has seen this season. In a close game, we would anticipate the Eagles using their best runner as much as possible against a team that has been average to below average against the run in recent years.

If you’re feeling bold, Miles Sanders to lead the playoffs in rushing is +600 on FanDuel. Sanders needs 107 yards to pass Christian McCaffrey.

Chris Jones to Record a Sack: NO (FanDuel -108)

Chris Jones registered his first career playoff sack against the Bengals in his last game, but unfortunately, this isn’t the injured Cincinnati offensive line. This Eagles offensive line features two Hall of Famers and two more Pro Bowl talents.

According to Pro Football Focus, the Philadelphia starters were credited with only eight sacks allowed on the season. Center Jason Kelce and tackle Lane Johnson gave up zero, guards Landon Dickerson and Isaac Seumalo each allowed one, and left tackle Jordan Mailata sacrificed six.

Not only is the interior offensive line talented but they will be paying extra attention to Chris Jones when he lines up on the inside. If Jones does break free up the middle, Jalen Hurts’ mobility will be more than enough to escape the All-Pro. The Chiefs tend to line Jones up on the edge when they’re in need of a pass rushing spark. Lane Johnson won’t allow that spark, so the best target would be Mailata.

First Team to Record a Timeout: Kansas City Chiefs (BetMGM -120)

Kansas City Head Coach Andy Reid has never shown hesitation to call an early timeout to start off the game. This season, the Chiefs called the first timeout in 15 of their 19 games. On the opposing sideline, Nick Sirianni continually holds onto his for potential high-leverage situations.