Experts Pick Eagles-Cardinals Prop Bets
ARIZONA -- It's nearly time for kickoff between the Arizona Cardinals and Philadelphia Eagles - which presents another opportunity for people to earn some nice change from NFL action in Week 17.
Some of the best we could find across the web:
ANYTIME TD: Kyler Murray + Dallas Goedert
Action Network's Gilles Gallant: "I get that the Eagles defensive line is a handful, but this is still one of the fastest players in the NFL and has three rushing touchdowns in six games since returning from injury. Even against the 49ers, he only had +300 odds and had a red-zone carry before RB James Conner eventually scored. I had expected odds at +300 so I'll bet +350.
"With the Eagles, I’d go with Dallas Goedert. He’s seen back-to-back nine-target weeks, and the Cardinals are 30th in DVOA against opposing TEs with six touchdowns allowed to the position. I wouldn’t invest in too many Eagles pass-catchers since this game could be a blowout that would see Philly milk the clock and run the ball."
DeVonta Smith OVER 23.5 Yards Longest Reception
Sharp Football Analysis' Ryan McCrystal: "Arizona allows a league-worst 57.6% completion rate on throws 15 or more yards downfield, per TruMedia. For this reason, we often take longest receptions props against the Cardinals defense.
"It’s reasonable to play this prop with A.J. Brown or DeVonta Smith, but we’ll select Smith based on how he matches up with Arizona’s coverage scheme.
"The Cardinals use two-high safety coverages on 54% of snaps, the league’s second-highest rate per TruMedia.
"That trend bodes well for Smith’s usage, as he leads the Eagles in overall target share against two-high coverage (26%) and on downfield targets against two-high coverage (53%)."
D'Andre Swift OVER 63.5 Rushing Yards
Covers.com's Jared Hochman: "Philadelphia's offense has always been at its best when it runs the balls consistently, and with the likelihood that the Eagles are nursing a lead (currently sitting as double-digit favorites), we could see a lot of Swift in the second half to wear down the defense... and the clock.
"Some projection models forecast as much as 74 yards for Swift, with the industry consensus around 68 yards, giving a little buffer on this number.
"The only concern is this game gets too out-of-hand, and the starters all get extended rest, but considering Philadelphia's defense has struggled and the team overall has lost three of four and failed to cover the spread in five straight, I think this stays close enough that Swift and the ground game will be used to the bitter end."
