Cardinals Shockingly Favored by One Metric Against Seahawks in Week 2

The Arizona Cardinals have one metric leaning in their favor.

Nov 9, 2025; Seattle, Washington, USA; Arizona Cardinals quarterback Jacoby Brissett (7) throws a pass during the fourth quarter against the Seattle Seahawks at Lumen Field. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Ng-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

ARIZONA — The Arizona Cardinals have lost their last nine matchups to the Seattle Seahawks, a streak that dates back to the 2021 season.

One metric believes that's due for an end this week.

ESPN's matchup predictor for the Cardinals' Week 2 bout against Seattle has Arizona with a slight edge over the defending Super Bowl champion Seahawks. The Cardinals have a 53.7% chance to win at State Farm Stadium while Seattle was given a 45.9% chance.

ESPN Analytics matchup predictor has the Seahawks as underdogs in Arizona this week...

Seahawks 45.9%
Cardinals 53.7%

I like it. Seahawks play best with the underdog mentality 🤷‍♂️ pic.twitter.com/a59HnH3gSG

— Seattle ON Tap (@SeattleONTap) September 16, 2026

Seattle's low probability likely resides in the fact that starting quarterback Sam Darnold has officially been ruled out, propping Drew Lock into the saddle to face a Cardinals defense that allowed just 14 points to Justin Herbert in their Week 1 win.

Both teams are 1-0 entering Sunday, though head coach Mike LaFleur still gave Lock his flowers during a press conference.

"I want to say he's started 28 games I think in his career. He's played 41 career [games]. I think he was 16 to 22 for 187 in a touchdown [last week]. I thought he was efficient," LaFleur said of Lock.

Darnold suffered a glute injury early in last week's season opener but isn't expected to land on injured reserve, according to the Seahawks.

"Sam's a great quarterback. I'd say I know Sam a little bit better than Drew because I did have I guess you could say a month or so with him even though he wasn't in the building in New York," LaFleur continued, referencing his short tenure as an offensive coordinator with the Jets.

"But I've always really respected him dating back to USC, understanding that he was a young quarterback going through — every situation is different by the quarterback and by the club. He got himself in a very stable situation. I think starting in San Francisco, Minnesota, and then obviously in Seattle. It's not shocking that they got the result they did last year.

"In my opinion, they are the best coach team in football. I think they have the best defense in football, and now, in my opinion, they have a really, really good quarterback with it, and yeah, he's down this week. But again, like I just said with Drew, the moment's not too big for him. I think he's a good quarterback who's played a lot of good football."

It's an early NFC West battle, where anything can happen — though it's surprising to see the Cardinals favored in any capacity given recent history and projected outlook for 2026.

Then again, football's played on grass. Not paper.