The Biggest Decision Jim Harbaugh Got Wrong Against the Bills and It's Deeply Rooted

The Chargers defense gave the offense chances to win the game but the offense failed to deliver. See Jim Harbaugh's conservative choices that did not work.

Sep 27, 2026; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Los Angeles Chargers head coach Jim Harbaugh looks on from the sideline in the first half against the Buffalo Bills at New Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Los Angeles Chargers dropped their third straight game to start the 2026 season 0-3. Los Angeles' defense gave the Chargers every chance to win this game by forcing five turnovers against arguably the best offense in the NFL. The Chargers offense failed to capitalize and never pulled away from the Bills.

The Chargers had their opportunities to put up points but in several cases they simply Chargered. Kicker Cameron Dicker missed a field goal, Justin Herbert threw an interception in the redzone and despite advanced analytics suggesting going for it on fourth down, Jim Harbaugh opted for the easy points of a field goal.

Jim Harbaugh is not a play caller. He never has been at any point of his coaching career. Harbaugh is the quintessential CEO style head coach and culture builder. That is the main reason the Chargers hired him after he won a national championship at the University of Michigan.

One thing that Harbaugh is not good at, and it's his philosophical choice, is going for it on fourth down. Chargers fans may remember the first year under Brandon Staley was the wild west when it came to going for it on fourth down. Former coach turned analyst Rex Ryan, among others, would lose his mind over some of those fourth-down attempts. Jim Harbaugh is the exact opposite.

Harbaugh rarely makes the decision to go for it on fourth down. Several analytics models suggested the Chargers should have gone for it in lieu of kicking a field goal but Harbaugh sent out Cameron Dicker for a 31-yard field goal.

On the broadcast, Tom Brady actually praised the move to get points early, but the sequence which lead to the kick was questionable. The Chargers ran the ball on third down with five yards to go and it appeared that going for it on fourth down, based on the play call, was the agreed-upon outcome should the third-down run fail. Choosing to send out the kicking unit in this case was not the most egregious decision but it was puzzling.

The next fourth down call came on Los Angeles' next possession. Up 10-0, fresh off another turnover courtesy of a Genesis Smith interception, the Chargers made it to the Bills' 27-yard line and faced another fourth down with three yards to go. Kicking the field goal would have added points but it would have still been a two-score game. Instead, Dicker missed the kick and the momentum immediately swung back to Buffalo.

Sep 13, 2026; Inglewood, California, USA; Los Angeles Chargers kicker Cameron Dicker (11) kicks an extra point against the Arizona Cardinals during the second half at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

In fairness, no one expects their kicker to miss the field goal and had the Chargers tried and failed on fourth down, the resulting momentum shift would have been the same. However, in terms of risk versus reward. Kicking the field goal, had Dicker made it, would have still left the game within two scores for the Josh Allen led Bills offense. Had they gone for it and eventually scored a touchdown, the dynamic of the game would have shifted as now it would have been a three-score game.

The Chargers under Jim Harbaugh have been one of the most conservative teams in the NFL on fourth down, a stark 180-degree turn from the early years under Brandon Staley. The Chargers currently never go for it when the advanced analytics say to go for it and the conservative approach has always been Harbaugh's preferred method of operating.

https://t.co/vQIpiu3O8i pic.twitter.com/o8mYaAtQqO

— Alex Insdorf (@alexinsdorf99) September 29, 2026

The biggest mistake that Harbaugh made in relation to the loss to the Bills and going for it on fourth down came with just over five minutes left in the game. The Chargers, down 17-13, got the ball back with over seven minutes left in the game. The offense only gained one first down and were facing a fourth and 10 from their own 45-yard line. Harbaugh opted to go for fourth and ten with over five minutes left on the clock, down by four and with timeouts remaining.

The advanced models said that was a moment to punt the ball and play defense to try to get the ball back. The Chargers looked lost and unprepared for the play, they were struggling to get lined up for the play call and predictably failed to convert. The failure then gave the Bills momentum and a short field. The sequence set the defense up in a tough situation and they could no longer hold the Bills out and gave up a touchdown, essentially sealing the game.

No clue why Jim Harbaugh felt the need to go for that fourth down. NGS model strongly recommended a punt.

— Benjamin Solak (@BenjaminSolak) September 27, 2026

The Chargers famously did not have much of an analytics staff prior the 2020 season when then general manager Tom Telesco finally created the department and hired their first Director of Football Research and Analytics in Aditya Krishnan from the Cleveland Browns front office.

Analytics transaction: the Chargers hired Aditya Krishnan from the Browns as their new director of analytics. Krishnan was a football research analyst in Cleveland.

Prior to hiring Krishnan the Chargers didn’t have any analytics employees.

— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) February 27, 2020

Krishnan was a prominent member of the Chargers front office and aided the Chargers moving into a more data driven era under Brandon Staley. Krishnan did not survive the hiring of new general manager Joe Hortiz and Jim Harbaugh and left the team during Harbaugh's first summer.

Aditya Krishnan, who was the Chargers' Director of Football Research & Analytics, is no longer with the team, per source.

— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) June 24, 2024

Additionally, another analytics focused member of the front office, whom helped shape the models and analysis for in-game decision making Alex Stern, left the Chargers after one year with Harbaugh and Hortiz.

Chargers Senior Analyst Alex Stern is leaving the team for a role at Teamworks Intelligence (formerly Zelus Analytics), a major third-party sports analytics company with NFL clients, per sources.

Stern spent four years with the Chargers.

— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) June 30, 2025

The Chargers famously did not have an analytics team and were the last franchise in the league to finally create and hire a team. It appears that version of the analytics department is gone and now focused solely on player development. A decision that may be driven by Harbaugh's style and decision making and that would be evident in the choices and results on the field.

Jim Harbaugh famously faced a fork in the road in Ann Arbor after going 2-4 in the covid-19 shortened season. He evolved, pivoted and brought in a new wave of young coaches including current Seattle Seahawks head coach Mike Macdonald who was Michigan's defensive coordinator in 2021 where the Wolverines finished with a 12-2 record.

Harbaugh may be faced with another pivot point and required evolution. The decision-making on fourth downs has not been good and the results speak for themselves.