Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills: AFC Championship Game Preview and Prediction
Coming this Sunday, the Kansas City Chiefs will play in their third consecutive AFC Championship Game, all right at home at Arrowhead Stadium. This time, the opponent is the Buffalo Bills, who will stand opposite the Chiefs to fight for the right to play in Super Bowl LV on February 7. The Bills are led by their star quarterback Josh Allen, who has gone on a tear in the 2020 season after an up-and-down first two years of his career. Allen is a rightful MVP candidate and he has put on arguably the best and most impactful season in Bills history, which is saying something with competition like Jim Kelly, who took the Bills to four consecutive Super Bowls.
The top storyline for this game has revolved around the health of quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who had a bizarre collision with Cleveland Browns linebacker Mack Wilson in the third quarter of the Chiefs' win over the Browns in the divisional round on Sunday, knocking Mahomes out of the game.
Mahomes is now a certainty to play on Sunday, as he is no longer in concussion protocol, so it will be very interesting to see how Mahomes looks in his return.
Fact to Know: Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen were basically equals this season.
EPA = Expected Points Added, SR = Success Rate, CPOE = Completion Percentage Over Expectation (Completion Percentage minus Expected Completion Percentage)
Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen for the right to go to the Super Bowl: What more could you want? These two electrifying young stars are certain to have a duel for the ages after the incredible seasons they both had, especially considering neither of the defenses that they will face are especially good.
As you can see, the margin for these two is quite narrow for their production on the season. In recent weeks, they have been trading second place in EPA+CPOE composite score like they're playing hot potato, and now, Mahomes currently has a lead by the slightest of margins. Both are also remarkably similar in their air yards, expected completion percentage and success rate.
Matchup to Watch: Tyreek Hill vs. Tre'Davious White
I almost went with another wide receiver/cornerback matchup, with Bills wide receiver Stefon Diggs and Chiefs' cornerback L'Jarius Sneed as another very enticing matchup in its own right, but this one is just a bit more intriguing as long as these two match up often.
Tyreek Hill has had yet another outstanding season, hitting a career-high 15 touchdowns this season, along with the second-most receiving yards of his career entering this game (1,386, including postseason). Hill was highly impactful in last week's divisional-round game against the Browns as well, totaling eight receptions for 110 yards over 10 targets. In the first Bills game this season, however, Hill was quite unproductive, as he had just three targets and 20 yards, both season-lows for him.
Tre'Davious White is known for being one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL, and for good reason, really. In the first game against the Chiefs, White allowed zero yards in coverage over 34 coverage snaps according to Pro Football Focus (PFF), an incredible accomplishment when facing one of the greatest offenses in NFL history. Despite that, White may also be having the worst season of his career, allowing a career-high in touchdowns (five), completion percentage (61.2%) and passer rating (95.4), according to PFF. While the Chiefs obviously shouldn't try to target White, they probably don't need to completely avoid him either.
Key to the Game: Can the Chiefs defense get enough stops?
In this game, every drive that doesn't result in a touchdown is a sizable win for the defense. However, I have way more trust in Patrick Mahomes to dig the Chiefs out of a bad deficit than I do in Josh Allen to dig the Bills out of one. We have seen Mahomes do that several times, and Allen hasn't done it often. If the Chiefs can hold the Bills to field goals consistently or get some stops to get Mahomes the ball back, that would be a massive step in taking this game and going to Tampa on February 7.
Prediction: Chiefs 31, Bills 24
I expect this game to be just a blast. Two elite quarterbacks who are on two of the three most high-powered offenses in football with bright offensive minds running them in Andy Reid and Brian Daboll. While I acknowledge the Bills have a solid chance of winning this game to make their first Super Bowl in 27 years, I believe that Mahomes puts on a clinic and brings the Chiefs to their second consecutive Super Bowl to give us the matchup we have waited years for: Patrick Mahomes vs. Aaron Rodgers on the grandest stage of them all.
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