Why Sunday Means Just as Much to Texans as Chiefs

KANSAS CITY, Mo. – In Battle Red ink, the Houston Texans have circled Sunday’s date on their calendars since they first saw the NFL schedule in May.

A time-flies 323 days ago, the Texans were in Kansas City facing another cold-weather game in front of the entire country. And looking a lot like this year’s version of the Chiefs, Houston dominated statistically but still lost.

karlaftis, strou — Jan 18, 2025; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) is sacked by Kansas City Chiefs defensive end George Karlaftis (56) during the fourth quarter of a 2025 AFC divisional round game at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images | Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

Thanks to eight Chiefs sacks – a pass rush Kansas City has painfully lacked this season -- and a few costly penalties, Kansas City advanced in the divisional playoffs, 23-14. Patrick Mahomes had his team in an seventh consecutive AFC championship game.

That streak looks ominously close to crashing this season, and the Texans (7-5) would love nothing more than to solidify that course on Sunday Night Football (7:20 p.m. CT, NBC/KSHB-TV, Channel 41, 96.5 The Fan).

jaden hick — Jan 18, 2025; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs safety Jaden Hicks (21) returns a blocked field goal attempt by Houston Texans place kicker Ka'imi Fairbairn (not pictured) for 10 yards during the fourth quarter of a 2025 AFC divisional round game at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-Imagn Images | Denny Medley-Imagn Images

Humongous implications in Houston

According to Hall of Fame Houston writer John McClain, Sunday marks the most important regular-season game in franchise history – among those without a clinching scenario at stake.

Texans are trying to overcome an 0-3 start and win a third consecutive AFC South title. They're 7-5 with a 4-game winning streak entering tonight's game at KC, the biggest regular season game in team history not involving clinching a division title or postseason berth.
— John McClain (@McClain_on_NFL) December 7, 2025

McClain, who’s covered the Texans since before their inaugural season in 2002 and the Houston Oilers prior to that, said Houston badly needs a win in Kansas City. The Texans haven’t won at Arrowhead Stadium since 2019 but if they end that streak, they’ll sit just one game out of the AFC South lead.

That’s critical because a loss would mean Houston would be two games out with four to play.

texans colt — A pass intended for Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Josh Downs (2) falls incomplete Sunday, Nov. 30, 2025, during a game against the Houston Texans at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. | Christine Tannous/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Critical in Kansas City as well

But the game is critical for Kansas City, too. In fact, it arguably holds the same stature for the Chiefs as it does the Texans, the most important regular-season game at least in the Mahomes era without a direct clinching implication.

“It’s a challenge and we're up for a challenge,” running back Isiah Pacheco said Friday. “And that's what it's all about, coming out to work and to compete every day. And when there's a competition, it's fun. And that’s what we love doing, competing.”

The Chiefs’ playoff hopes with a loss would dwindle to 14 percent, according to ESPN analyst Evan Kaplan.

There are 7 teams whose playoff chance will swing by at least 25% with a win or loss in Week 14 according to ESPN Analytics.

Steelers (65% > 18%)
Ravens (76% > 31%)
Chiefs (56% > 14%)
Texans (76% > 37%)
Lions (57% > 23%)
Colts (88% > 58%)
Cowboys (35% > 8%)
— Evan Kaplan (@EpKap) December 3, 2025

No aspect of the game looks easy for the Chiefs, especially when Kansas City has the ball. The only miniscule Achilles’ heel on the No. 1-ranked Texans defense could be their slightly-below-average tackling grade.

chris jone — Jan 18, 2025; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs defensive tackle Chris Jones (95) reacts during the fourth quarter of a 2025 AFC divisional round game against the Houston Texans at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-Imagn Images | Denny Medley-Imagn Images

The other small advantage the Chiefs could have on Sunday is the weather. Texans quarterback is only 1-4 in cold-weather games. His only win came in a playoff-tuneup last season at Tennessee, where he played only the first series in 35-degree conditions. And two of his four losses came during a month-long stretch last season at Kansas City.

But that cold-weather advantage goes beyond Stroud, and it encompasses both mental and physical aspects.

“Guys don't want to run down there and tackle in the cold weather,” Chiefs special-teams coordinator Dave Toub said Thursday. “I mean, a lot of guys don't. But I just think it gives you an advantage, a mental advantage, if you’ve had success in that kind of environment. And we have.”

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