On St. Patrick’s Day, Chiefs Can Bet on This Luck Improving

KANSAS CITY, Mo. – Close wins in the NFL are like four-leaf clovers. They’re hard to find and teams are lucky to have them.

So, on St. Patrick’s Day, the Chiefs can look forward to a season with better luck than 2025. After all, an NFL team couldn’t have experienced more footballs bouncing against them than finishing an NFL-worst 1-9 in one-score games, as Kansas City did last season.

mahome — Jacksonville Jaguars linebacker Dennis Gardeck (47) pressures Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) during the first quarter of an NFL football matchup at EverBank Stadium, Monday, Oct. 6, 2025, in Jacksonville, Fla. The Jacksonville Jaguars edged the Kansas City Chiefs 31-28. [Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union] | Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Things in Chiefs' control, things out of Chiefs' control

Reducing penalties, scoring non-offensive touchdowns and creating takeaways – areas in which they struggled significantly last season – are within their control. But they couldn't have scripted an unluckier opponent kicking percentage.

“They need to improve in these areas, but they should fare better in 2026 simply by pure regression,” Sharp wrote last month. “One thing that surely will go the Chiefs' way next season is the rate at which opponents make field goals against them. That alone should turn many of those one-score losses into wins.”

dicke — Dec 14, 2025; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Los Angeles Chargers kicker Cameron Dicker (11) warms up prior to a game against the Kansas City Chiefs at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images | Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

He wasn’t kidding. Opponent kickers converted 31 of 32 field-goal attempts (96.9 percent), the highest rate in the league, just ahead of Denver (37 of 39, 94.9 percent). Kansas City’s opponents tied for the 11th-best field-goal percentage by an NFL team this century. Over the last decade, only the 2018 Falcons (22 of 22, 100.0) and 2023 Titans (46 of 47, 97.9 percent) had higher opponent percentages.

62 of 64 kicks

What’s more, opponent kickers also made 31 of 32 extra-point attempts. That means opposing teams converted on 62 of their 64 kicks (96.9 percent). Obviously, the Chiefs could’ve played much better in end-of-game situations, but no question, that amount of luck certainly affected their 2025 trajectory.

The Chiefs lost six games by three points or less, the most painful of which were at Denver right after the bye and in Patrick Mahomes’ final appearance, a Week 15 home loss to the Chargers.

carlso — Jan 4, 2026; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Las Vegas Raiders place kicker Daniel Carlson (8) leaves the field after the game against the Kansas City Chiefs at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Kansas City had its opportunities in that Week 11 setback at Denver, especially disappointing since the Chiefs had an extra week to prepare. Mahomes couldn’t connect on sure touchdowns to Xavier Worthy or Tyquan Thornton on the first drive against Denver’s vaunted defense. Then,

Wil Lutz hit all five field-goal attempts, including a 54-yarder to knot the game at 19 with four minutes left, and a 35-yarder with no time remaining.

lut — Jan 17, 2026; Denver, CO, USA; Denver Broncos place kicker Wil Lutz (3) celebrates with teammates after kicking a game-winning field goal during overtime of an AFC Divisional Round playoff game against the Buffalo Bills at Empower Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

Four weeks later, Cameron Dicker hit all three field goals – including a 49-yarder to give the Chargers’ their first lead with 51 seconds left in a 16-13 victory over the Chiefs.

And while the season finale was only for pride, Kansas City had to watch Daniel Carlson nail all four field goals – including a 60-yard kick in the final seconds – of a 14-12 loss. Talk about a sour taste in the mouth for an entire offseason.

butke — Dec 7, 2025; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs place kicker Harrison Butker (7) reacts after missing a field goal as Houston Texans cornerback Ameer Speed (37) celebrates during the second quarter at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-Imagn Images | Denny Medley-Imagn Images

“All told,” Sharp explained, “in these 6 losses decided by 3 points or less, Chiefs opponents went 20 for 20, including 9 for 9 on attempts of 49 yards or more and 3 for 3 on attempts of 55 yards or more.”

Bet on the Chiefs getting wet this year when they fall out of a boat in deep water. Their luck left them dry in those situations in 2025.