Three Matchups That Will Decide Chiefs vs. Colts in Week 2

The last time the Kansas City Chiefs won a football game before Monday night was November 23, 2025, against these very same Indianapolis Colts. That win required an 11-point fourth-quarter comeback, a 23-20 overtime final, and a glimpse of a Patrick Mahomes performance that reminded everyone what this team looks like when it is firing on all cylinders.

A costly Kareem Hunt fumble at the start of that fourth quarter made it even more dramatic than it needed to be. Neither team made the playoffs, despite both being well-positioned in the standings after that game, which tells you everything about how the 2025 season went for Kansas City and Indianapolis, who were 8-2 heading into that Week 12 matchup.

Now the Chiefs are back, Mahomes is healthy, and the offense showed enough against Denver to feel good about Sunday night. But Week 1 can be fool's gold, and the Colts are coming in looking to prove their lopsided performance against the Baltimore Ravens was an aberration.

Here are the three matchups worth watching most closely.

1. Wide receiver Rashee Rice vs. cornerback Justin Walley

The passing game was largely absent against Denver. The Chiefs' receivers combined for just 37 receiving yards, which is not a formula that will hold up over a full season, even with the run game performing the way it did. Sunday night presents an opportunity to change that, and the matchup tape suggests it is there for the taking.

When these two teams met last November, a healthy Mahomes exploded for 352 yards in the fourth-quarter comeback, and Rice was the engine of that performance, hauling in eight catches for 141 yards. Much of that damage came against Kenny Moore II, who is now a free agent.

The player who figures to draw the Rice assignment on Sunday is Justin Walley, who handled most of the slot-corner snaps against Baltimore last week. It was not an encouraging debut.

Walley allowed all five of the targets he was the primary defender on to be caught, giving up 93 yards in coverage, according to PFF. For context, Lamar Jackson threw for 324 yards and a touchdown against the Colts, and Zay Flowers picked up nearly half of his receiving yards with Walley in coverage.

Rice is coming off a turbulent offseason and looking to establish himself as the receiver this offense needs him to be. If the matchup looked favorable on paper before Sunday, the stats against Baltimore make it look even more so. A Rice breakout game could change the entire complexion of this offense heading into the rest of the season.

2. Kenneth Walker vs. the Colts' rush defense

The easy storyline here is how each team's star running back performs, but let's start with Kenneth Walker, because what he did in Week 1 deserves even more attention than it has gotten.

Walker was dominant against the Broncos, and when you add his rushing and receiving production together, he actually gained more total yardage than Denver's entire offense combined. It was the kind of performance that validated everything the Chiefs envisioned when they signed him to a three-year, $45 million deal this offseason.

And Sunday's matchup suggests more of the same could be coming.

Derrick Henry ran wild against Indianapolis last week, carrying the ball 24 times for 144 yards and three touchdowns, exactly six yards per carry. If Walker can do anything close to what Henry did, and the Chiefs can layer in the play-action aggression they couldn't generate against the Broncos, this game could get away from the Colts quickly.

Kahlil Benson will also start at left tackle again with Josh Simmons still out, making a run-heavy game plan the logical approach for a second straight week. The Colts also rank among the league's highest in man-to-man coverage tendencies, and with the Chiefs' receivers still finding their footing against press coverage, another large dose of Walker would not be surprising.

3. Jonathan Taylor vs. the Chiefs' rush defense

Indianapolis has weapons on the outside. Alec Pierce, Josh Downs, Keenan Allen, and tight end Tyler Warren are all legitimate threats. But with Daniel Jones at quarterback, stopping Jonathan Taylor has traditionally been the formula for stopping this offense, and Spagnuolo knows it.

Taylor is coming off another dominant season, rushing for 1,585 yards, third in the NFL, and tying a career-high with 18 rushing touchdowns. Even in last week’s blowout loss, he still took 19 carries for 98 yards.

He is as dangerous as any back in the league when given room to operate. The Chiefs, however, have a recent track record against him that is worth noting. In their Week 12 matchup last season, Taylor managed just 58 yards and zero touchdowns on 16 carries, a 3.6-yard-per-carry average.

In recent years, Spagnuolo has consistently built game plans designed to take away a dominant rushing attack while putting the pressure on an average passing offense to beat him, and Jones fits that profile.

Following Week 1, the Chiefs rank first in team defense. This is the kind of matchup where they can reinforce that standing early and put the Colts in a difficult position. That said, you cannot take a back of Taylor's caliber for granted.

If he finds early success and the Colts can stay ahead of the sticks, the dynamic of this game changes entirely. Getting him under control on early downs is the priority, and based on what this defense showed last Monday, Spagnuolo has the personnel to do it.

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