Worrying Trend for Rueben Bain Should Concern Chiefs

In less than 30 days, the Kansas City Chiefs will be making an astronomically monumental decision that could be a turning point in the organization's history.

Ever since Patrick Mahomes took over as the starting quarterback in 2018, it would have been inconceivable if someone had suggested that the Chiefs would ever be picking inside the top 10 during the superstar quarterback's career. Yet, it is the reality for Kansas City after finishing with a 6-11 record last season. Not to mention, the 30-year-old quarterback suffered a torn ACL, which complicates the matter even more.

Dec 14, 2025; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) walks to the huddle from the sideline during the second quarter against the Los Angeles Chargers at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images | Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

Earlier last week, ESPN's NFL draft analyst Mel Kiper Jr. released his third mock draft, which included the Chiefs selecting Rueben Bain Jr. at No. 9. However, a conversation between Kiper Jr. and fellow draft analyst Field Yates ensued, and what was discussed could be a concern for the Chiefs with this specific prospect.

Assessing Bain Jr.

Jan 19, 2026; Miami Gardens, FL, USA; Miami Hurricanes defensive lineman Rueben Bain Jr. (4) defends against Indiana Hoosiers quarterback Fernando Mendoza (15) during the College Football Playoff National Championship game at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

"Rueben Bain Jr., you say, is just a great college football player," Kiper Jr. said. "Will that translate into him being, if you're taking him in the top 10, I'll ask you this. Are you convinced he will be a double-digit sack guy in the NFL?"

"No, I'm not," Yates began. "I'm not convinced that he'll be a double-digit sack guy in the NFL. I mean, we have the data since 1999, there's been no player with his arm length - 31 inches or shorter - that has had a double-digit sack season. So, could he buck the trend? Sure. I mean, it does happen. That's the beauty of sports as we see things that we either don't anticipate or we have literally never seen before. But it's been a while since a player with this archetype has gone on to become a dominant, high-level pass rusher."

Why This is Concerning for Chiefs

Dec 31, 2025; Arlington, TX, USA; Miami Hurricanes defensive lineman Rueben Bain Jr. (4) rushes the line during the 2025 Cotton Bowl and quarterfinal game of the College Football Playoff at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images | Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

Maybe Bain Jr. is taken off the board prior to Kansas City being on the clock, and the front office won't have to go through the mental gymnastics of justifying this pick. However, if the Chiefs find themselves in a position where they can draft the Miami pass rusher at the ninth pick, and are concerned with the arm length, will they have the gumption to either pass on Bain Jr. or trade down?

It is obvious that Kansas City needs an edge rusher, and general manager Brett Veach could be staring a potential solution right in the face. However, the statistic that Yates brings up provides a major risk for the Chiefs, who cannot afford to whiff on this pick. On the other hand, the backlash and scrutiny for passing on Bain Jr., especially if he proves to be an outlier, in terms of sack production for a player of his stature, could haunt Kansas City's front office for years to come.