Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars, Week 17: Colts Need Win, Help for Playoffs
INDIANAPOLIS — If the Indianapolis Colts are added to the dubious list of 11-5 teams unable to make the playoffs since 1978, it won’t be difficult to look back at what could have made a difference.
That starts with Week 1, when the Colts lost 27-20 to the Jacksonville Jaguars, who haven’t won since. Now the team with the NFL’s worst record makes a return visit to Lucas Oil Stadium on Sunday, where the Colts (10-5) must win and then get help to make the AFC playoffs.
Either the Tennessee Titans, Cleveland Browns, Miami Dolphins, or Baltimore Ravens lose on Sunday, or the Colts will have to stomach being on that short list spanning 42 years.
So much has changed since the AFC South Division rival Colts and Jaguars met the first time. Both teams are missing key players due to injuries — the Colts are without offensive left tackle Anthony Castonzo, safety Khari Willis, and cornerback Rock Ya-Sin while the Jaguars won’t have leading rusher James Robinson or top wide receiver D.J. Chark Jr.
Remember how Jaguars quarterback Gardner Minshew threw three TD passes in that Week 1 win? He lost his job and is the backup. And the Jaguars have already secured the No. 1 overall pick in April’s NFL draft, which analysts are convinced will be for a quarterback, presumably Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence.
As fate would have it, the Colts have everything to play for and the Jaguars are just showing up to play. And because of last time, considering the Colts’ playoff plight, the home team won’t have any problem with motivation.
Here’s all you need to know about Colts-Jaguars, Part II.
Philip Rivers throws a pass in the season opener at Jacksonville.
Reinhold Matay/USA TODAY Sports
Broadcast Information
— Sunday, Jan. 4, at 4:25 p.m. (ET).
— Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis.
— TV: CBS-4, Andrew Catalon (play-by-play), James Lofton (color), Sherree Burruss (sideline).
— Radio: WFNI 1070-AM ESPN “The Fan,” WLHK 97.1 HANK-FM, Matt Taylor (play-by-play), Rick Venturi (color), Larra Overton (sideline), Bill Brooks (pregame/postgame analyst); Compass Media Networks, Bill Rosinski (play-by-play), Brian Baldinger (color analyst).
All-Time Series
— Colts lead, 24-15. Jaguars have won three of four.
— Last meeting, Week 1, 2020. Jaguars won, 27-20.
Coaches
Colts: head coach Frank Reich; offensive coordinator Nick Sirianni; defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus, special teams Bubba Ventrone.
Jaguars: head coach Doug Marrone; offensive coordinator Jay Gruden; defensive coordinator Todd Wash; special teams Joe Decamillis.
Last Week
Colts lost at Pittsburgh Steelers, 28-24.
Jaguars lost vs. Chicago Bears, 41-17.
Injury Reports
Colts
— OUT: OT Will Holden (ankle); S Khari Willis (concussion), CB Rock Ya-Sin (concussion).
— QUESTIONABLE: WR Michael Pittman Jr. (concussion).
Jaguars
— OUT: WR D.J. Chark Jr. (shin), WR Collin Johnson (hamstring), RB James Robinson (ankle).
— QUESTIONABLE: RB Nathan Cottrell (hip).
Jonathan Taylor has scored six touchdowns in the past five games.
Douglas DeFelice/USA TODAY Sports
Storylines/Things to Watch
— Let Jonathan Taylor Run: The Jaguars are 30th in rushing defense and Colts rookie running back Jonathan Taylor has grown since starting his NFL debut at Jacksonville as a backup in Week 1. Taylor needs 84 yards to reach 1,000, and he’s been strong lately. In the past five games, he has 488 yards (97.6 per game) with six TDs (four rushing). Although the Colts have to do some shuffling on the offensive line, there’s absolutely no reason why the home team shouldn’t be able to count on their workhorse.
— Get After Mike Glennon: Despite four sacks, the Colts didn’t get enough pressure on Gardner Minshew in the season opener. Now journeyman Mike Glennon is the Jaguars quarterback, his fifth team in eight years. In four games, he’s completed 62 percent of his passes for 811 yards with five TDs, five INTs, and three sacks. On a lousy team, those numbers are respectable. That’s why an inconsistent Colts pass rush which had only one sack on a safety blitz last week must get in Glennon’s face more than in Week 1. Give an unfazed veteran passer too much time and anything can happen.
— Fortify Depleted O-Line: While it’s fair to point out the Jaguars are without leading rusher James Robinson and talented wide receiver D.J. Chark Jr., the Colts won’t have offensive left tackle Anthony Castonzo, who was placed on injured reserve this week because he needs ankle surgery. Not having the 10th-year veteran requires some shuffling, which the Colts have been mum about. Backup Le’Raven Clark is on injured reserve and backup Will Holden has been ruled out. Chaz Green has struggled. There’s talk about moving All-Pro left guard Quenton Nelson to tackle, where he played a series at Las Vegas, and using center/guard Joey Hunt at left guard. What’s clear is the Colts have to pass protect better than at Pittsburgh, the NFL’s sack leader which got to Philip Rivers for five sacks last Sunday.
Intriguing Matchups
— Colts CB Xavier Rhodes vs. Jaguars WR Keelan Cole Sr.: Rhodes has been the best cover guy, but he undoubtedly remembers losing track of Cole on a 22-yard, game-winning TD reception in the season opener. Because D.J. Chark Jr. is sidelined, Cole becomes the Jaguars’ best wide receiver with 52 catches for 619 yards and five TDs. Expect the Jaguars to move him around. He lost Rhodes on a crossing route when the defender evidently thought he was in zone. The Colts won’t have cornerback Rock Ya-Sin or safety Khari Willis, so it’s imperative that nickel cornerback Kenny Moore II and veteran reserve T.J. Carrie step up in the secondary, as well as safety Tavon Wilson. Defending Cole probably requires a team effort as opposed to just counting on Rhodes.
— Colts WR T.Y. Hilton vs. Jaguars CB Chris Claybrooks: Hilton was humbled by Jaguars rookie cornerback C.J. Henderson in the opener as the defender had an interception and Hilton dropped the last two passes the Colts threw on their final drive. Henderson is now on injured reserve, as is backup D.J. Hayden. Claybrooks, a rookie selected in the seventh round, will be playing in his 10th game. Hilton recently had four TD catches in a four-game stretch to suggest a return to past four-time Pro Bowl form. In his last five starts, Hilton is averaging 4.8 catches for 81.6 yards. His agent will be talking new contract after this season, so a strong finale could help in negotiations.
— Colts LT (who will that be?) vs. Jaguars DE Dawuane Smoot: No Anthony Castonzo means the Colts could turn to two-time All-Pro left guard Quenton Nelson outside. Or they could give ineffective journeyman Chaz Green another chance, but he’s been awful. The Jaguars pass rush isn’t near the same without injured star Josh Allen, who hasn’t played since November because of a knee injury. Smoot isn’t even listed as a starter, but leads the Jags with 5.5 sacks. Regardless of who lines up in Castonzo’s place, the Colts can’t allow Smoot or anyone else to put too much pressure on quarterback Philip Rivers.
Projected Weather
— Lucas Oil Stadium roof/window expected to be closed.
Referee Assignment
— Head referee: Shawn Smith (third year as referee, started as umpire in 2015). Click here to see all referee assignments for Week 17.
Betting Lines
— Favorite: Colts (-14).
— Over/Under: 49.5.
2020 Season Leaders
Colts
— Passing: QB Philip Rivers (4,005 yards).
— Rushing: RB Jonathan Taylor (916 yards).
— Receiving: WR T.Y. Hilton (735 yards).
— Touchdowns: Taylor (10).
— Tackles: LB Darius Leonard (122).
— Sacks: DE Denico Autry, DT DeForest Buckner, DE Justin Houston (7.5).
— Interceptions: CB Kenny Moore II (4).
Jaguars
— Passing: QB Gardner Minshew (2,259 yards).
— Rushing: RB James Robinson (1,070 yards).
— Receiving: WR D.J. Chark Jr. (706 yards).
— Touchdowns: Robinson (10).
— Tackles: LB Joe Schobert (132).
— Sacks: DE Dawuane Smoot (5.5).
— Interceptions: Schobert (3).
Comparing 2020 Stats
Colts
— Total offense: 14th (374.1 YPG).
— Scoring: 9th (28.2 PPG).
— Passing offense: 8th (259.3 YPG).
— Sacks allowed: T3rd (21).
— Rushing offense: 16th (114.9 YPG).
— Third-down offense: 23rd (40.11%).
— Red-zone offense: T17th (58.93%).
— Total defense: 8th (335.3 YPG).
— Scoring defense: T12th (23.2 PPG).
— Passing defense: 18th (242.5 YPG).
— Sacks: T15th (34).
— Rushing defense: 2nd (92.9 YPG).
— Third-down defense: 21st (43.09%).
— Red-zone defense: 13th (60%).
— Time of possession: 12th (30:50).
— Turnover differential: T3rd (+10).
Jaguars
— Total offense: 26th (329 YPG).
— Scoring: T29th (19.5 PPG).
— Passing offense: 20th (231.3 YPG).
— Sacks allowed: T22nd (38).
— Rushing offense: 27th (97.7 YPG).
— Third-down offense: 16th (41.15%).
— Red-zone offense: 19th (58.14%).
— Total defense: 32nd (416.4 YPG).
— Scoring defense: 31st (30.9 PPG).
— Passing defense: 27th (271.1 YPG).
— Sacks: 30th (18).
— Rushing defense: 30th (145.3 YPG).
— Third-down defense: 23rd (44.15%).
— Red-zone defense: 25th (64.41%).
— Time of possession: 30th (27:42).
— Turnover differential: 28th (-8).
Colts Notes
— Quarterback Philip Rivers is expected to make his 240th start, which ties Julius Peppers for the sixth-most games started in NFL history. He needs one TD pass to tie Dan Marino (420) for the fifth-most TD passes in NFL history. Rivers needs one game with a 100+ passer rating to tie Peyton Manning (112) for the third-most games in league history.
— Linebacker Darius Leonard needs six tackles to pass Patrick Willis (411) for the second-most tackles by a player in their first 42 games since 1987.
— Kicker Rodrigo Blankenship needs one field goal to pass Raul Allegre (30) for the most field goals made by a rookie in franchise history. He needs five points to pass Cary Blanchard (135, 1996) for the fifth-most, single-season points in franchise history. If Blankenship gets 10 points, he will pass Adam Vinatieri (140, 2014) for the third-most, single-season points in franchise history.
— Defensive tackle DeForest Buckner needs one solo tackle to reach 200 in his five-year career.
— Jack Doyle needs one reception to pass Marcus Pollard (263) for the third-most receptions by a tight end in team history.
— Running back Jonathan Taylor needs 84 rushing yards to reach 1,000 and become just the fifth rookie in franchise history to reach that plateau, and first since Joseph Addai in 2006. With 46 rushing yards, he would pass Alan Ameche (961) for the fifth-most rushing yards by a rookie in Colts history.
— Wide receiver T.Y. Hilton needs one touchdown to tie Marshall Faulk (51) for the eighth-most total touchdowns in team history. With one TD reception, Hilton will tie Jimmy Orr (50) for the fourth-most receiving TDs in team history.
— Running back Nyheim Hines needs six receptions to pass Bill Brooks (170) for the fourth-most receptions by a Colts player in his first three seasons.
— Safety George Odum needs one special-teams tackle to become just the seventh player in team history since 1994 with 20 in a season.
Click Before The Game
Inside AFC South: End Game Worth?
When New Year’s Resolutions Turn Into Indianapolis Colts Wishes for 2021
Late-Season Weaknesses Clarify Colts’ Obvious Needs for 2021 and Beyond
Colts’ Nyheim Hines Will Try to Block Out How Other NFL Games Are Going
Colts Need Help to Make Playoffs
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