Gus Bradley's Colts Defense Showed Critical Improvement in First Season
The Indianapolis Colts lost Defensive Coordinator Matt Eberflus to the Chicago Bears prior to the 2022 NFL season. Eberflus had a successful four-year stint with the team that led to his shot as a head coach in Chicago. Replacing him was longtime coordinator Gus Bradley and a massive change in a defensive scheme.
Bradley's first season with the Colts was a bit of a mixed bag, as the defense started off the year extremely strong before struggling late after the change at head coach. Even with the end of the season number not looking phenomenal, the Colts' defense did improve in a few key metrics on the season.
Today, let's take a look at the numbers and compare Bradley's first season as defensive coordinator to the four-year averages that Eberflus had to see what direction this team is heading.
Numbers in Regression
Eberflus, obviously, did some very good things with the Colts, which is why he is currently a head coach of another franchise. His biggest wins in Indy (from 2018-2021) were how many turnovers his defenses forced and his units' effectiveness against the run.
The Colts averaged 26.7 turnovers forced per season under Eberflus, which consistently ranked them within the top ten in the league in all four seasons (2nd back in 2021). As far as run defense goes, his defenses held teams to around 100 rushing yards per game over those four years, which consistently ranked around the top 5-6 in the league.
The Colts also did a good job of limiting scoring under Eberflus, holding teams to just 22.2 points against per game over those four seasons. The yardage numbers were sometimes a bit high, but Eberflus' defenses typically knew how to buckle it down once opposing offenses got into the red zone.
Flipping it over to Bradley's defense in 2022, we saw a bit of a regression in each of these categories. His defense allowed 25.1 points per game, which ranked 28th in the entire league. While this number is inflated slightly due to the Colts' offense turning the ball over a league-high 34 times, Bradley's defense did allow opponents to score touchdowns on nearly 68% of their red zone trips, which was the worst mark in the league.
The Colts also regressed in the turnover margin. The team took the ball away just 21 times last season, which was good for 19th in the league. Superstar playmaker Shaquille Leonard did miss a majority of the season, but this is still a concerning number overall. Slot cornerback Kenny Moore II finished the year with zero interceptions for the first time in his career.
Run defense also suffered a bit last year, at least in terms of total volume. While the Colts did allow the 6th lowest yards per carry in the league (4.1), they ranked 21st in total rush yards allowed per game (124). Just one of the many negative aspects of having your own offense unable to score points whatsoever.
Numbers Improving
While those regressing numbers above are a bit concerning, there were some positive elements to the Colts' defense last season. A majority of these improvements came in the passing game for the defense.
Under Eberflus, the Colts consistently ranked in the bottom half of the league in passing yards allowed per game (240 allowed per game over four years). Last season under Bradley, the Colts were able to limit teams to just 209 yards passing per game.
The Colts also saw improvement in net yards gained per passing attempt. NY/A is a metric that combines sack yardage into the yards per attempt calculation for passing offenses. This is achieved by this formula:
(Passing Yards - Sack Yards) / (Passes Attempted + Times Sacked)
This is a fairly stable metric that looks at how many yards teams are gaining per pass call, rather than just looking at attempted passes alone. Under Eberflus the Colts typically ranked outside the top 20 in this metric, allowing 6.4 net yards per attempt over four years. Last season, the Colts were able to bring that down a little bit, allowing just 6.1 net yards per attempt (16th in the league).
The Colts' pass rush also saw a bit of a boost this past season, totaling six more sacks than the four-year average under Eberflus (44 vs 38). Even when you factor in the extra game of play, the Colts still managed a climb in sacks per game under Bradley in 2022.
The team also managed to create more pressure this past season, totaling a pressure percentage of 22% (15th best in the NFL). Eberflus' four-year average with the Colts was roughly around 18.1%. Total pressures also climbed slightly from 131 on average under Eberflus to 134 this past season under Bradley.
So, in summation, the Colts' defense took a step back in run defense, red zone defense, and turnovers forced but did improve in pass defense and in pressures/sacks created.
Beyond the Numbers + Looking Forward
The Colts' defense underwent a fairly big change this past offseason from Eberflus to Bradley. Eberflus hails from the Tampa Two style of scheme, and he loves his two high safeties that keep everything in front. Bradley, on the other hand, is a single high guy that lives in cover one and cover three.
Last season, the Colts' go-to coverage was some variation of a single high look. Whether that was cover one man or cover three, the Colts would rely on middle-of-the-field closed looks to get the job done on high-pressure downs. This, in a way, limits which defenders are involved in each play:
The turnover numbers last season paint a good picture of where a majority of the action was against the Colts' defense. All but one interception for the Colts in 2022 came from a safety or an outside cornerback. This is a big change from Eberflus, where the turnovers and big plays mainly came from the slot corner and the linebackers.
Eberflus' defense was centered around making teams march down the field on a high volume of plays and hope they made a mistake. There isn't anything wrong with this approach, but Bradley's defense was a bit more aggressive in stopping offenses early.
We can even see this a bit in third-down percentage. The Colts were consistently near the bottom of the league in third-down defense under Eberflus, but they ranked 9th a year ago under Bradley in this metric. Eberflus' system relied on turnovers and red zone defense to get the job done, Bradley's is more about suffocating offenses early and getting off the field.
The Colts still aren't exactly where they want to be as a defensive unit, but I do believe they are heading in the right direction. Eberflus' philosophy isn't a bad one by any means, but you are asking for your defense to wear out late in the year with that type of ideology.
With Bradley's plan of attack/approach, the defense is dictating play much more often. While it was far from perfect in 2022, we saw glimpses of how good this unit could be (especially early this past season).
The Indianapolis Colts still have a ways to go with this retool/rebuild that they are undergoing, but I firmly believe that the defense is on the right track. If they can get some young players to take that next step forward in 2023, then I do think this unit will be a good one under Bradley for years to come.
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