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Colts Draft: Brian Thomas Jr. Could Be Key to Unlocking Offense
The Indianapolis Colts can take their offense to the next level by staying put at pick 15 and selecting LSU wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr.
The Indianapolis Colts are just under a week away from the 2024 NFL Draft, and the final countdown to the first round is officially on. The Colts have quite a few options in round one of this year’s draft, so it will be interesting to see how Chris Ballard navigates this important draft cycle.
Ballard and the Colts have been doing their homework on the top receivers in this draft class. There appears to be a concerted effort for the team to get more explosive on offense in 2024. One of the more explosive pass catchers in this entire draft class is LSU wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr.
Thomas is a fascinating prospect in this draft. He struggled to produce during his first two seasons with the Tigers but had a strong breakout campaign as the team’s number-two receiver option in 2023. He hauled in 68 receptions for 1,177 yards and 17 touchdowns (most in the FBS in 2023) in his third and final season in college.
At just 21 years old, Thomas has the athletic potential and the late production to be a first-round candidate for the Colts in this draft. If the team truly wants to be more explosive on offense in 2024, adding a 6’2” wide receiver who runs a 4.33 40-yard dash and averaged over 17.0 yards a catch last year is certainly one way to go about it.
With Thomas being a name linked to the Colts by a few analysts this offseason, let’s dive into how this young pass catcher could fit in Indy next year.
Shane Steichen’s Love of the Deep Pass
Colts head coach Shane Steichen is a disciple of the Norv Turner coaching tree, a branch of Air Coryell that believes in spacing and attacking downfield in the passing game. Steichen’s version of that style of offense has added some wrinkles, but the core philosophy remains the same. Steichen wants to use the short passing game to open up looks down the field.
In Philadelphia, with Jalen Hurts as his quarterback, Steichen lived and died by the deep ball. Hurts had 75 passes over 20 yards down the field in 2021, with an astounding 15.3% of his total dropbacks being targets over 20 yards down the field. Those numbers remained fairly high in 2022, with Hurts coming in at 71 passes and 13.0% of the overall throws, respectively. Those numbers dipped quite a bit in 2023 with Gardner Minshew and Anthony Richardson as Steichen's starting quarterbacks.
The Colts attempted just 59 total passes over 20 yards in depth last season, which was only 10.4% of the teams’ total pass attempts. The touchdown numbers on these attempts dropped quite a bit as well, as the Eagles averaged eight touchdowns a season on these attempts under Steichen and the Colts had just three last year. The return of a hungrier and more aggressive Richardson should raise these numbers up a bit, but adding another vertical option to the offense could lead to an explosion in downfield efficiency and volume.
In Philly, Steichen had A.J Brown. In Los Angeles, he had Mike Williams. Could Thomas be the next vertical option to emerge in Steichen’s vertical system?
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Brian Thomas Jr. is an Elite Vertical Option
Thomas is one of the better vertical pass options that I’ve personally ever evaluated. His ability to track the ball down the field combined with his late hands and next-level acceleration, make him a dangerous threat for opposing defensive backs. Teams were forced to live in off-man coverage against him, and even then he showcased an elite ability to pace his vertical route and eat up cushion in a hurry.
Thomas was targeted 20-plus yards down the field on 22 occasions last year. He hauled in 15 of those targets for 670 yards (44.7 yards per reception) and 12 touchdowns in 2023. His 12 touchdowns were tied for the most among all FBS receivers on such targets and his 670 yards were second only behind Rome Odunze (who had nearly double the targets on such throws). Thomas' 68.2% catch rate was the highest among all players who saw over 20 targets in this area of the field.
So it’s safe to say that Thomas is a truly elite difference-maker in the vertical passing game. His ability as a deep threat isn’t just elite in general, though; it’s especially elite for what the Colts want to do in the vertical pass attack. One of Steichen’s favorite vertical calls is to attack the one-on-one matchup on the backside of 3x1 pass sets.
This simplistic check in a 3x1 formation has led to good things in Steichen’s tenure as an offensive play caller. This check was a staple during his time with the Chargers and the Eagles, but only appeared sparingly last season. Alec Pierce did make some plays out of these looks when given the chance last year, but it’s reasonable to expect a player like Thomas to have a much bigger impact on these designs if selected by the Colts:
The Colts also had a handful of designed shot plays drawn up last season that mostly went Pierce’s way. Pierce had some good moments on these opportunities, but he wasn’t as consistent on them as the team would like. A player like Thomas would add another dimension to these types of plays.
As I mentioned at the top of this section, Thomas' late acceleration on vertical routes is truly special. He isn’t just a 4.3 guy in shorts; he has legit track speed on the field. At 6’2” and 209 pounds, Thomas’ long strides are enough to pull away from the best athletes on the planet. He was coasting past SEC talent last season, and it’s easy to see this ability translating over to the Colts on their designed shot looks:
The previous two points were primarily focused on how Thomas could take an already existing element in the Colts’ offense to the next level. The fun part of this equation is what he can add to the offense. Steichen was creative in Philly with his ability to isolate Brown and DeVonta Smith on vertical plays, and a weapon like Thomas could give him a similar threat to utilize.
Thomas was especially great on slot fades/slot shots last season at LSU. His spatial awareness and body control on these plays were fantastic and he showcased an added ability to win in contested situations when given the chance. This element was sorely lacking from the Colts’ offense last year, and Thomas' ability to win from the slot down the field could open opportunities for both him and Pierce on the field together.
If the Colts wanted to have fun with it, they could line up the 50/50 ball winner Pierce on the backside of the 3x1 with Thomas in the slot on the trips side. This would force the high safety to choose pre-snap which vertical threat to cover, leading to an opportunity down the field for the other player.
With a quarterback like Richardson in the backfield, the potential for explosive football out of these looks could be a sight to see:
The final point to make about Thomas' vertical ability is the mere gravity he has as a player. Defenders are pulled astray by his presence on the field and the simple act of him running vertical opens up the field for players underneath.
Pierce fulfilled this role for the Colts last season, but even he doesn’t have the same gravity that Thomas has. An elite deep threat’s gravity is a difference-maker for an offense:
The Bottom Line
Brian Thomas Jr. is a fascinating prospect to stack up in this wide receiver class. His ability as a deep threat is rare and that trait should carry over to the NFL from day one. Aside from that though, he currently doesn’t offer much more as a prospect. He has the ability to improve in other areas, such as route running and yards after the catch, but his only real calling card at the moment is in the vertical game.
How does an NFL team value a one-trick pony who has an elite one trick? Each team will see it differently, but I believe the Colts would be the type of team to take a chance on a player like Thomas. Ballard has hardly ever shied away from high-upside prospects in the past, and Thomas' explosive play ability lines up with the team’s vision and desire for this offseason.
Overall, Thomas is far from a perfect prospect but he may be the perfect prospect for the Colts. His elite vertical play would pair well with Indy’s alien at quarterback, and it could truly unlock the missing element needed in Steichen’s offense. He could truly be the missing piece that this team needs to push the offense over the top for 2024 (and beyond).
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