PFF: Colts' Ballard Among Best GMs at Draft-Day Trades

The Indianapolis Colts' team-building philosophy is, in a perfect world, to add foundational pieces through the draft and fortify the rest with free agency. Above all, the draft is gold.

The team lacks a first-round pick this year so that may run counter to the gold statement but when Colts general manager Chris Ballard lacks important picks, he tends to make them up elsewhere.

In fact, Pro Football Focus has declared Ballard the No. 3 GM in the NFL when it comes to making draft trades. Here is their data chart followed by a quick explanation:

Above the red dashed line means the front office regimes tend to gain more value on their trade downs than lose value when they trade up. Below the red dashed line denotes the opposite....

From this plot, we can look at the Y-axis difference between the point and the dashed line to determine a single number for how much extra value a regime gained or lost compared to strictly making fair trades per draft. We’ll only look at executives who currently have a 'general manager' title, an equivalent title or are known to take the primary role in their organization’s draft process.

In this exercise, Ballard finished only behind Scott Fitterer of the Carolina Panthers and the Seattle Seahawks' John Schneider.

Ballard is quite active during the draft, making multiple moves in each of his five drafts with the Colts to trade up, down, or either send or receive a veteran player in exchange for draft capital.

Here is PFF's evaluation of the job Ballard has done so far since 2017 considering his movement during the draft, featuring some of his best and worst moves:

3. Chris Ballard, Indianapolis Colts

Best Trade Down:

Sam Darnold @ pick 3 (gained 2626 points, 2nd overall pick)

Worst Trade Up:

Khari Willis @ pick 109 (lost 428 points, 160th overall pick)

Explanation:

Ballard’s overall score is tremendously boosted by the Darnold trade, but even if you remove trades involving QBs, which have their own market, he still ends up in the top five. His story is similar to many others on this list. Like Schneider, he generally favors trade downs, although he doesn’t typically gain more than the equivalent of an early Day 3 pick out of the deal. He makes up for this lack of efficiency in volume, which grants him the flexibility to make his rare trade-ups while making up for any capital he loses in the veteran QB market.

Next, we'll take a look at all of the players that the Colts have acquired in draft-related trades during Ballard's tenure as Colts GM, broken up in players they've traded up for, players they've picked after moving back, and NFL veterans they've acquired through trade.

Players Acquired in Trade-Ups

2018—2:64 DL Tyquan Lewis (sent 3:67 and 6:178)
2019—4:109 S Khari Willis (sent 4:129 and 4:135)
2020—2:41 RB Jonathan Taylor (sent 2:44 and 5:160)

The Colts were completely remodeling their defense in 2018 and Lewis was exactly the type of lineman they wanted. A player with the versatile blend of size and athleticism to play either three-technique tackle or left end, Lewis has started 12-of-41 games and earned a second contract this offseason due to being a key part of their defensive line rotation. Injuries have severely hampered Lewis' potential, costing him 24 games.

Willis has started 33-of-39 games with the Colts at strong safety. Like Lewis, he's a solid, average, starting-level player who has been held back a little bit by injuries, missing 10 games in three seasons.

Taylor's a freak; plain and simple. The dominant, record-breaking rusher we saw in college at Wisconsin has translated to the NFL with the Colts, leading the NFL in rushing (1,811) and yards from scrimmage (2,171) in his second season.

Overall, if you're going to move up for a player, it better be worth it. Lewis should have established himself as a starter by now but injuries seem to have dictated that. He flashed in two of his first three years and was initially the Colts' starter at left end when training camp started last year. Willis has been the Colts' starting strong safety since he took over midway through his rookie year, and Taylor is arguably the best running back in the league.

Players Acquired in Trade-Backs

2017—RB Marlon Mack and LB Anthony Walker Jr.
2018—G Quenton Nelson, OT Braden Smith, ED Kemoko Turay, RB Jordan Wilkins, WR Daurice Fountain, and WR Deon Cain
2019—CB Rock Ya-Sin, ED Ben Banogu, and CB Marvell Tell III
2020—WR Michael Pittman Jr., S Julian Blackmon, OL Danny Pinter, WR Dezmon Patmon, and LB Jordan Glasgow
2021—QB Sam Ehlinger and WR Mike Strachan

This is where Ballard and the Colts' scouting department really shines. The value they've gotten out of these players is tremendous. Out of the 18 players, 12 have held a meaningful role with the Colts, 11 are still with the team, and seven have been regular starters with the Colts.

Regardless of those who weren't able to make an impact while with the Colts or are still with the team and haven't yet carved out that role, every one of them has done something notable.

Fountain and Cain both had superstar summers during training camp but had significant injuries that derailed that season. Banogu was one of the biggest winners of last year's camp before settling back into an inactive role during the season. Patmon has shown steady development in two years and caught his first career touchdown in 2021. Tell has shown promise and earned playing time as a rookie in 2019, and although he failed to live up to expectations in 2021, the Colts elected to re-sign him this offseason.

Veterans Acquired in Draft-Pick Trades

2017—DL Billy Winn (sent 7:233)
2020—DL DeForest Buckner (sent 1:13)
2021—QB Carson Wentz (sent 2021-3:84 and 2022-1:16)

Winn was an adequate role player for the defensive line for his lone season in 2015, starting 3-of-12 games. For the role he played, he was worth a seventh-round pick that occurred two years after he was acquired but not much more.

Buckner has been everything the Colts wanted and more when they traded for him, earning First-Team All-Pro honors in his first season in Indianapolis (2020) and a Pro Bowl in his second (2021). He's led the Colts in sacks from the three-tech defensive tackle position in each of his two years, accumulating 16.5 total.

Wentz, well... they tried. The Colts thought they could make it work, and the compensation wound up being too rich for him being in Indianapolis for just one season. While the Colts lost a 2021 third-rounder and a 2022 first, they traded him and a pair of picks for a second and third-round pick in 2022 and a conditional Day 2 pick in 2023.

Do you agree with Ballard's approach to the draft? Drop your thoughts below in the comment section!

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