5 Best Bets That Stand Out in Colts' Tough Matchup With Steelers

The Colts head to Pittsburgh looking for their third straight win, and we've got five player props worth backing.

Oct 4, 2026; Tottenham, ENG; Indianapolis Colts quarterback Daniel Jones (17) passes the ball against the Washington Commanders during the first quarter at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Indianapolis Colts are heading into Pittsburgh for Week 5, and we've got five more player props worth targeting.

Through four weeks, we're sitting at 9-2 on Colts props and 9-9 overall. We've had our struggles with opposing players, but our reads on Indianapolis have been consistently profitable.

Sunday presents an interesting challenge.

The Steelers own the NFL's second-highest run-defense grade (73.3), via PFF, which could force Shane Steichen to lean more heavily on Daniel Jones and the passing attack.

With Aaron Rodgers facing an already vulnerable Colts defense, I wouldn't be surprised if Indianapolis finds itself playing catch-up and is forced to air it out more than expected.

With that in mind, here are my five favorite props for Sunday.

Daniel Jones Over 19.5 Pass Completions (-116)

Oct 4, 2026; Tottenham, ENG; Indianapolis Colts quarterback Daniel Jones (17) passes the ball against the Washington Commanders during the third quarter at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Jones has cleared this number in two of his last three games, with the only miss coming in London last week when he finished with exactly 19 completions.

He's also hit this number in both of his previous career matchups against Pittsburgh.

With the Steelers owning one of the league's best run defenses, I expect Jones to be forced into throwing the football more than usual.

Josh Downs Over 58.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Dec 14, 2025; Seattle, Washington, USA; Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Josh Downs (2) celebrates after catching a touchdown pass against the Seattle Seahawks during the second quarter at Lumen Field. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Downs has cleared this line in two of his last three games, with performances of 77 and 72 receiving yards.

He's averaging seven targets over his last four games, and Pittsburgh allows the seventh-most yards on throws behind the sticks. That is exactly where Downs does a lot of his damage.

With Darius Slayton and Ashton Dulin ruled out, Keenan Allen questionable, and Alec Pierce on injured reserve, Jones is running out of places to go with the football.

After a quiet afternoon in London, I expect Steichen to get Downs involved early and often.

Spencer Shrader Over 1.5 Field Goals

Oct 4, 2026; Tottenham, United Kingdom; Indianapolis Colts place kicker Spencer Shrader (3) at press conference after the 2026 NFL London Games against the Washington Commanders at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

At this point, I'm not sure why we would stop taking this bet.

Shrader has cleared this line in three straight games and eight of his last 10. He also hit this number in 80% of his games in 2025.

Even more impressive, Shrader has connected on 27 field goals over his last 10 full games and is a perfect 11-for-11 this season.

Against a Steelers defense capable of stalling drives in scoring territory, Shrader should get his opportunities. This has been a money machine, and we're riding it until the wheels fall off.

Darnell Washington Over 22.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Sep 27, 2026; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers tight end Darnell Washington (80) is introduced for a game against the Cincinnati Bengals at Acrisure Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Barry Reeger-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Washington has posted 67 and 27 receiving yards in his last two games, clearing this number both times.

Indianapolis owns a 41.4 coverage grade against pass catchers, ranking 30th via PFF. With Carlies sidelined, the thought of a rookie linebacker trying to cover a 6-foot-7 tight end is not exactly comforting.

Washington has also cleared this line in two head-to-head matchups against Indianapolis. That is a matchup I expect Rodgers to take advantage of.

Jaylen Warren Over 19.5 Receiving Yards (-137)

Sep 27, 2026; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers running back Jaylen Warren (30) is introduced for a game against the Cincinnati Bengals at Acrisure Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Barry Reeger-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Warren has cleared this number in all four games this season, posting 27, 34, 49 and 33 receiving yards.

It's the same concern with Indianapolis' linebacker situation. With Carlies out and inexperienced players potentially stepping into bigger roles, covering Warren out of the backfield could become a major problem.

The approach is straightforward this week. Pittsburgh's run defense could force Indianapolis to lean heavily on the passing game, creating opportunities for Daniel Jones and Josh Downs to produce.

And if the Steelers manage to stall a few drives, Spencer Shrader should be right there to capitalize.

We've had success trusting the numbers on Colts props all season, and I don't see a reason to change that approach now.

Good luck and bet responsibly.

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