Colts vs. Chiefs Best Bets | Back Tyler Warren and Travis Kelce

The Indianapolis Colts vs. Kansas City Chiefs bets and player props are in a matchup loaded with firepower.

Oct 26, 2025; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Indianapolis Colts tight end Tyler Warren (84) warms up before the game against the Tennessee Titans at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Goddin-Imagn Images | Robert Goddin-Imagn Images

As we gear up for one of Week 12’s premier matchups between the Indianapolis Colts and Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead, it’s time to scan the board for real betting value. Few environments in football can swing momentum like Kansas City, and Vegas clearly agrees.

The Colts enter as +3.5 underdogs, walking straight into one of the toughest road venues in the sport. And with Kansas City fuming after a tight divisional loss to Denver in Week 11, the urgency is unmistakable.

An angry Chiefs team with its back against the wall is the last group any contender wants to see. But with two weeks to prepare, this well-coached Colts unit should take the field with a surgical level of poise and precision.

see you sunday. pic.twitter.com/BKKOmjyYIm

— Indianapolis Colts (@Colts) November 19, 2025

Let’s dive into the lines and player props for this pivotal Week 12 showdown. We’re 26-17 on Colts Best Bets this season and looking to get back on track.

If you’ve watched Indianapolis lately, you know the offense runs through star RB Jonathan Taylor. Everyone knows it — including Kansas City DC Steve Spagnuolo.

Kansas City’s secondary ranks third in the NFL in coverage grade (80.4), per PFF. Their run defense sits 13th (67.8), which remains the softest point of their defense.

But Spagnuolo is a defensive mastermind. He’ll load the box to prevent Taylor from dictating the game flow, just as he did last February when he held Eagles RB Saquon Barkley to 57 rushing yards in the Super Bowl.

Aug 9, 2025; Glendale, Arizona, USA; Kansas City Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo against the Arizona Cardinals during a preseason NFL game at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Philadelphia still dominated that matchup overall, but the lesson remains the same: with this personnel, the Chiefs are comfortable giving ground elsewhere if they smother the run. That’s why we’re turning to alternate props while still backing the hot hand.

If Kansas City succeeds in bottling up the Colts’ rushing attack, Colts HC Shane Steichen will still manufacture touches for Taylor. That’s why Colts RB Taylor Over 2.5 Receptions (+100) is one of our favorite plays on the board.

Taylor has cleared this number in seven of his last ten games. He also caught three passes in their most recent meeting.

For our next pick, we’re sticking with the Indianapolis passing game. Colts TE Tyler Warren Over 50.5 Receiving Yards (-113) offers real value.

Warren posted 99 yards last week and has eclipsed this 50.5 line in four of his last five outings. Kansas City also surrendered 101 receiving yards to Buffalo Bills TE Dawson Knox just two weeks ago.

Per Next Gen Stats:

Entering Week 12, Tyler Warren has averaged 7.8 yards after the catch.

Warren has 293 yards after the catch, which leads all tight ends and is the 2nd-most by a rookie tight end since 2016 (2024 - Brock Bowers: 611), despite having 7 more games to play. pic.twitter.com/zmbPvJFWFc

— Cody Manning (@CodyTalksNFL) November 19, 2025

With those two air-game props locked in, we’re returning to the most reliable bet in football. Colts RB Jonathan Taylor Anytime TD (-230) — for the 11th straight week.

Taylor has recorded 17 touchdowns in his last nine games and is fresh off a three-score performance in Berlin. Behind the Colts’ No. 2 run-blocking unit (74.6) facing a No. 13 Kansas City rush defense (67.8), the trend remains impossible to fade.

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Now let’s flip to the other side of the matchup and examine how Chiefs HC Andy Reid will look to attack Indianapolis. The formula points to a heavy dose of passing.

The Colts rank 22nd in coverage grade (50.5) and 15th in pass rush (71.4), which is the exact combination that buys Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes time to operate. That extra time also invites his trademark scrambles and plays outside of the pocket. 

That’s why we’re taking Chiefs TE Travis Kelce Over 51.5 Receiving Yards (-110). Kelce has shattered this number in six straight games and is coming off a 91-yard performance against a tough Denver Broncos defense.

Sep 25, 2022; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce (87) breaks tackle attempts by Indianapolis Colts cornerback Kenny Moore II (23) and linebacker Zaire Franklin (44) as he rushes the ball during a game at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Scheer/IndyStar Staff-Imagn Images | Robert Scheer/IndyStar Staff-Imagn Images

We’re staying with the Chiefs’ aerial plan for our final pick. Chiefs QB Mahomes Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-172) rounds out the card.

Mahomes has thrown 10 touchdowns in his last five games and enters this matchup needing a statement performance. With both Kansas City and Indianapolis ranking third and fourth in passing yards this season, the script calls for fireworks.

NFL Week 12 Game Preview

Indianapolis Colts vs Kansas City Chiefs#ForTheShoe #ChiefsKingdom pic.twitter.com/2eeqIDQGM8

— SūmerSports (@SumerSports) November 20, 2025

This matchup has all the ingredients of a classic: elite coaching, top-tier quarterback play, and two offenses that can score from anywhere on the field. With playoff implications for both sides, expect a fast, aggressive chess match from the opening kickoff.

Indianapolis has the preparation edge, but Kansas City’s desperation makes them just as dangerous. No matter which side you’re backing, the board is loaded with value in one of Week 12’s most compelling games.