Horseshoe Huddle

Five Offseason Predictions That Could Shape the Colts' 2026 Season

The Indianapolis Colts have numerous storylines to follow this offseason.
John Davis|
Oct 5, 2025; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson (5) holds a football during warmups before the game between the Las Vegas Raiders and the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images
Oct 5, 2025; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson (5) holds a football during warmups before the game between the Las Vegas Raiders and the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images | Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images

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Indianapolis Colts

The franchise tag window has officially opened in the NFL as the league continues to crawl into free agency. The Indianapolis Colts have their hands full, with a variety of players set to hit the open market this March.

Evaluating internal affairs, external options, and an upcoming draft for a franchise that hasn't posted a winning record in two seasons, what does this offseason look like for Indianapolis?

Daniel Jones, Quarterback of the Future...?

No position matters more than the quarterback. That became apparent when the team received the best football of Daniel Jones' career, and in turn gave the franchise their best start to a season since Peyton Manning. I don't think there's a world where Jones gets the chance to test the open market before Indianapolis offers him a sizable contract.

Posting 19 touchdowns and eight interceptions across 13 games played, Jones was en route to a career-best season. His 3,101 passing yards were a career-high. Entering the bye week at 8-2, Jones emerged from the hiatus with a fractured fibula that he opted to play through.

Even in the success, it would be malpractice to ignore Jones' five-turnover day in Pittsburgh, where the team scored on the game's first drive, then not again until the fourth quarter. Jones tore his Achilles tendon in the team's third game after the bye week, and Indianapolis finished the season 8-9, losing its last seven games.

Can Indianapolis bank on Jones, who has never played a full season in his NFL career, returning to full health? It seems the organization feels like that is their only option, so they are choosing to believe it.

Operating with $35 million in cap space, an extension for Jones will take almost every penny. If Chris Ballard opts for the investment and success doesn’t immediately follow this fall, his job will bear the brunt of it.

Alec Pierce Gets His Payday

The growing sense is that the Colts will extend Alec Pierce, and it will undoubtedly be the right move. The question only becomes how? Assuming Pierce is second in priority only to Jones, where will the team get the cap space to offer their only 1,000-yard receiver from last season a deal?

It was the 2024 season that Pierce broke onto the scene, leading the league in yards per catch at 22.3 across 37 receptions. His seven receiving touchdowns led the team. Come 2025, he led the team with 1,003 receiving yards. His six receiving touchdowns were second only to Michael Pittman Jr.'s seven.

Pierce became the first player since 1990 to lead the league in yards per catch in back-to-back seasons. He became the second player since 2000 to notch 1,000 yards on fewer than 48 catches, joining only DeSean Jackson's 2010 campaign.

I doubt Indianapolis lets Pierce hit the open market. Far and away the most consistent receiver on the team in 2025, allowing such talent to leave the building would not bode well with ownership or the fan base. When the team traded receiver Adonai Mitchell at the trade deadline mid-season, it pretty much left the team no option but to retain Pierce, no matter the cost.

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The Michael Pittman Jr. Ultimatum

According to Spotrac, Pierce's market evaluation is over $20 million annually. For the Colts to enter a world where they can entertain offering Pierce a contract near that number, the front office will have to consider altering Pittman's contract. He is owed $29 million this season, the largest cap hit of any player on the roster.

By releasing Pittman, the Colts would save $24 million, incurring just $5 million in dead cap space. Ballard and company managed to ensure that the team could get out of nearly every contract from the 2024 season without much penalty ahead of the third and final years of the respective deals. Even superstar guard Quenton Nelson's dead cap hit is $6.2 million compared to his $24.2 million deal.

Since notching 109 receptions and 1,109 yards in 2023, Pittman hasn't finished a season with over 80 catches. The emergence of both Pierce and Josh Downs has left Pittman's role within the team's offense to feel minimal and truthfully replaceable.

Without a truly dominant skill that you can't find from another player, like Pierce's down field ability or Downs' lateral quickness, it becomes difficult to see the team not exploring moving on.

I believe the team will approach the six-year veteran about taking a sizable pay cut to stay with the team, and if Pittman isn't open to forgoing nearly half of his salary for this season, the Colts have a responsibility to explore a trade partner. Pittman has just one year left on his contract, likely making it difficult for teams to see value in paying his price and giving up capital without a long-term commitment.

Ultimately, I think the two sides work out a way for Pittman to stay in Indianapolis. However, there is a very real chance he doesn't wear the horseshoe next season.

Anthony Richardson Sr.'s Time in Indianapolis is Over

In what will ultimately be remembered as one of the largest "What If" cases in the franchise's recent history, the odds are stacked against the 2023 fourth overall draft pick.

Anthony Richardson Sr. has dealt with injuries in all three of his seasons with the team, from a season-ending injury to his throwing shoulder to back spasms, to faulty locker room equipment that fractured his orbital bone, sidelining him for the entire 2025 season.

Unfortunately, the best ability is availability. The Colts haven't been able to count on Richardson being healthy, and it would be a disservice to the entire team to choose to rely on him while operating under the false guise that somehow he could stay out of injury trouble, which has sadly never been the case.

With rookie quarterback Riley Leonard's closeness to Jones and support from the coaching staff, I believe the front office will ultimately move forward with him as the team's backup quarterback. Richardson has the tenth-highest cap hit on the team at $10.8 million, but the entirety of that would become dead cap if the team were to release him.

Giving Richardson a fresh start via trade would seemingly be the ideal outcome for both parties. Not to Richardson's fault, but his presence in the locker room creates more questions than Shane Steichen can offer answers for. If the Colts can find any team willing to give up remotely decent draft capital, I doubt they'll hesitate to pull the trigger.

Swinging Big on Trey Hendrickson

The Colts have been attached to Bengals' star pass rusher Trey Hendrickson's name in the rumor mill for nearly a year. Having played under defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo in Cincinnati, the NFL's leading sack getter in 2024 is set to hit free agency this March after being franchise tagged ahead of last year's period.

Since the retirement of Robert Mathis, Indianapolis has lacked a truly dominant edge defender. Former first-round draft pick Kwity Paye showed promise early, but has posted an otherwise disappointing tenure with the team across five seasons. He's set to hit free agency this March.

The team drafted Laiatu Latu as the first defender off the board in 2024, and while he has shown flashes as well, it'd be irresponsible to enter next season with him alone atop the depth chart.

Hendrickson's market value is estimated at $25.5 million annually, according to Spotrac. He will turn 32 years old this year, and played in just seven games in 2025 due to a severe hip/pelvis injury that required core muscle surgery this past December.

As it stands right now, the Colts don't have enough money to pay both their starting quarterback and top wideout without a handful of cap space maneuvers to create the money. Would it be responsible for the team to then dedicate almost $26 million annually to an aging veteran coming off an injury? No, not in the slightest. Will the team do it? Probably.

Overarching Theme

What you can take from these five moves I expect the Colts to make is a unified, shared theme that seems to exist within the Colts' ownership and front office: they feel that they are close to being a true contender in this league. But is that true?

With a lack of first-round picks for the next two years, thinking that way is their only option. The team lacks the resources to attempt any type of rebuild or true retool. Even though Indianapolis finished with a losing record, the desire to recapture the feeling the team had at 8-2 is the guiding thought behind most of what will transpire this offseason.

In the scenario laid out above, Indianapolis is banking on Daniel Jones to recover from a torn Achilles and come back identical, if not better, to how he played last season. They are banking on a 32-year-old pass rusher to also recover from his surgery, and then produce similar play to three years prior.

A regime hanging on by a thread won't care if they handicap the team with massive contracts or a lack of draft capital. "All-in" is the only feasible direction for a front office that thought last season's campaign would end in February.

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John Davis
JOHN DAVIS

John Davis covers the NFL and the Indianapolis Colts. He's currently pursuing a degree in Sports Media at the University of South Carolina. John also founded and operates Colts Report on Instagram, a big Colts Fan Page.

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