Horseshoe Huddle

Colts vs. Jaguars Best Bets - Urgency, Air Yards, and Value

Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars is set up for passing volume and a sharp Week 17 betting board.
Michael Greene|
Dec 22, 2025; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Indianapolis Colts quarterback Philip Rivers (17) looks on in the second quarter of the game against the San Francisco 49ers at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images
Dec 22, 2025; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Indianapolis Colts quarterback Philip Rivers (17) looks on in the second quarter of the game against the San Francisco 49ers at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images | Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images

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Indianapolis Colts

Week 17 arrives with postseason urgency, as the Indianapolis Colts host the Jacksonville Jaguars in a must-win matchup with playoff implications on both sides.

The margins are thin, the pressure is real, and everything funnels into Sunday inside Lucas Oil Stadium.

Indianapolis must win and receive help from Houston to keep its postseason path intact. That desperation creates a betting environment where volume, urgency, and game flow matter just as much as raw efficiency.

Both offenses are positioned to dictate this game. The Colts and Jaguars rank sixth and seventh in points scored, while both secondaries sit near the bottom of the league in pass coverage, setting up a board that screams offense.

That offensive setup starts up front, where the matchup clearly favors Indianapolis. Philip Rivers is operating behind the Colts’ second-ranked pass-blocking unit, while Jacksonville brings the league’s 21st-ranked pass rush, a combination that should allow Rivers to stay comfortable and dictate tempo.

Colts QB Rivers Over 204.5 Passing Yards (-115) is our first play of the card. Rivers cleared this number comfortably last week with 277 yards and is starting to look increasingly settled in as the games matter more.

Jacksonville has historically been a favorable matchup for Rivers, who owns an 8–3 career record against the Jaguars with 3,195 passing yards, 26 touchdowns, and just eight interceptions.

That comfort shows up in the efficiency, including a 112.1 passer rating and a 363-yard, 78.3 percent completion performance against Jacksonville in 2020.

With Rivers pushing the ball, the next layer of value shows up in the short and intermediate passing game. The connection with Josh Downs continues to strengthen at the exact right time.

For our second play, we’re looking at Colts WR Downs Over 37.5 Receiving Yards (-110). Downs saw nine targets last week, turning them into 65 yards, and has become a reliable chain-mover in this offense.

He averages 47 receiving yards per game against Jacksonville, and Rivers has always leaned heavily on slot receivers and tight ends in high-leverage spots.

With coverage leaking on the back end, this line feels light for the role Downs is playing right now.

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Kicking also remains firmly in play given how both teams move the ball without always finishing drives. That sets up a familiar angle we’re happy to revisit.

For the second week in a row, we’re riding with Over 3.5 Total Field Goals (+110). Rivers consistently gets the Colts into scoring range, but stalled red-zone possessions remain part of the profile.

Colts kicker Blake Grupe (Blue Uniform Number 10) kicks a field goal
Indianapolis Colts kicker Blake Grupe (10) kicks a field goal Monday, Dec. 22, 2025, during a game against the San Francisco 49ers at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. | Christine Tannous/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

That keeps Blake Grupe involved, while Jacksonville counters with Cam Little, who already drilled an NFL-record 68-yard field goal earlier this season. All signs point to multiple kicking opportunities on both sides.

Jacksonville’s offense also presents clean value against a Colts defense that is struggling mightily right now. The secondary simply has not held up against competent quarterback play.

I see value in Jaguars QB Lawrence Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-150). Indianapolis allowed five passing touchdowns last week and failed to force a punt for the first time since 2007.

Trevor Lawrence has thrown three touchdowns in his last game and 15 total over his past five. Against this coverage unit, two passing scores feel like the floor.

The final angle targets volume over explosiveness. Jacksonville has shown a willingness to pepper its top receiver underneath when defenses soften.

For our last play to round out the card, we’re going with Jaguars WR Brian Thomas Over 3.5 Receptions (+118). Thomas has cleared this line in seven of his last ten games, and the Colts allow the most receptions to wide receivers in the league, per PFF.

This game profiles as fast-paced, pass-heavy, and high-stakes from the opening drive. When urgency meets vulnerability, overs tend to cash.

As always, shop your lines, manage your units, and enjoy one of the most consequential Colts games of the season. If Indianapolis is going to keep its season alive, the numbers suggest fireworks along the way.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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Michael Greene
MICHAEL GREENE

Michael Greene is a graduate of Indiana University and the Scouting Academy. He's in his first year covering the Indianapolis Colts and NFL, with a unique focus on fantasy football.

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