Predicting Riley Leonard's First Start for Colts Against Texans

Indianapolis Colts rookie QB Riley Leonard is entering an inferno for his first start against the Houston Texans.

Dec 7, 2025; Jacksonville, Florida, USA; Indianapolis Colts quarterback Riley Leonard (15) runs with the ball while being chased by Jacksonville Jaguars defensive end Josh Hines-Allen (41) during the first half at EverBank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images | Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images

Rookie sixth-round quarterback Riley Leonard gets his first start under center for the Indianapolis Colts against the Houston Texans on Sunday, a team riding an eight-game winning streak.

As for the Colts, they're trying with might to finish the season with an improbable victory while ending a brutal six-game losing streak.

It won't be easy, and Leonard will undoubtedly have his struggles, but there's the slim chance he can lead Indianapolis to a victory.

With this on tap, it's time to briefly predict how Leonard will play against the Texans to close out a season that has fallen off a cliff.

Passing

Nov 23, 2025; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Indianapolis Colts quarterback Riley Leonard (15) warms up against the Kansas City Chiefs prior to a game at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-Imagn Images | Denny Medley-Imagn Images

Leonard is heading into a battle with a Houston defense that is only allowing 177.6 passing yards per game, good enough for fourth in the NFL.

Also, they've sacked opposing QBs 46 times (fifth in the NFL), with 26 of those coming from edge rushers Danielle Hunter (14.0) and Will Anderson Jr. (12.0).

In short, given that this duo has wrecked better teams than Indy, and that rookie Jalen Travis will have to handle things from the right tackle position, it makes it harder to envision Leonard won't get pressured into mistakes.

Also, Derek Stingley Jr., Jalen Pitre, Kamari Lassiter, and Calen Bullock are four of the most potent defensive backfield talents in the league, and have accounted for a whopping 16 interceptions.

I also think that DeMeco Ryans will do everything possible to sell out and stop Jonathan Taylor from giving Leonard an easier time, forcing the former Notre Dame Irish QB to throw more than he should.

Given that Leonard's not the greatest passer, this is a recipe for a potential disaster against Houston, and I can't hold back on the prediction. In short, I don't think it will be pretty - at all.

Prediction: 17/38 for 212 yards, 1 touchdown, 3 interceptions

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Rushing

Indianapolis Colts quarterback Riley Leonard (15) scores in the fourth quarter during an NFL football game at EverBank Stadium, Sunday, Dec. 7, 2025, in Jacksonville, Fla. Jaguars won 36-19. [Doug Engle/Florida Times-Union] | Doug Engle/Florida Times-Union / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Leonard's best quality as a quarterback is his ability to generate yards with his legs, something he more than displayed during his impressive 2024 season with the Fighting Irish.

Last year, Leonard was astounding, stacking up 906 rushing yards and 17 scores with his feet. It will be critical to get him involved in the ground game to help the offense function.

But with the dominance Houston's defensive front has shown, Leonard's impact on the ground could be snuffed out, regardless of how many times he runs the football.

While I think he'll be cleaner in this regard than his passing prediction, I still can't imagine he'll truly threaten this top-tier defense in his first ever NFL start.

I'm going with the lower end here, but I think he'll still put one into the end zone.

Prediction: 7 attempts for 23 rushing yards, 1 touchdown, 1 fumble lost

The Bottom Line

Indianapolis Colts quarterback Riley Leonard (15) passes in the second quarter during an NFL football game at EverBank Stadium, Sunday, Dec. 7, 2025, in Jacksonville, Fla. [Doug Engle/Florida Times-Union] | Doug Engle/Florida Times-Union / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Leonard is talented, there's no question about that. But for this sixth-round rookie to get his first chance to shine against a brutal defense like Houston's isn't encouraging when considering how it will pan out.

He'll make plays and potential dazzle Colts fans a few times, but in the expansive view for the entire game, it could go horribly wrong for the youngster.

Perhaps he'll shut people like me up with a heroic performance against the NFL's premier defensive unit. If he somehow does that, get ready for buzz to generate that he could be the future of the franchise.

However, don't expect it to happen this way.