Colts on Shaky Ground in AFC South Despite Great Start

The Indianapolis Colts have been impressive, but their positioning in the AFC South isn't cemented.

Oct 19, 2025; Inglewood, California, USA; Indianapolis Colts quarterback Daniel Jones (17) speaks with head coach Shane Steichen in the first quarter against the Los Angeles Chargers at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images | Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

The Indianapolis Colts are out of their Week 11 bye and have started preparations for a big matchup on Sunday at Arrowhead Stadium with the Kansas City Chiefs.

However, despite being 8-2 and 2-0 in the AFC South, Indy isn't far and away in the lead to steal the division for the first time since 2014.

Jeff Howe and Austin Mock of The Athletic point out that the AFC South isn't secured by Indy despite the Colts possessing one of the best records in the NFL.

"The Colts were one of the best stories of the first half, but nostalgia won’t get them very far. They have one of the most difficult schedules in the league the rest of the way, and it’s daunting enough that their two-game lead in the AFC South is hardly secure."

Oct 26, 2025; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor (28) rushes for a touchdown as Tennessee Titans safety Amani Hooker (37) defends during the third quarter at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Goddin-Imagn Images | Robert Goddin-Imagn Images

The Colts have only seen two AFC South games, both against the 1-9 Tennessee Titans. That pair of games went Indy's way easily, with scores of 41-20 and 38-14.

However, when examining the Jacksonville Jaguars and Houston Texans, those teams are 6-4 and 5-5. Also, the Texans have played a bulk of their divisional games and have a solid record in the AFC South of 3-1.

As for the Jaguars, while they only have a 1-1 divisional record, they're coming fresh off the heels of a dominant 35-6 victory over the Los Angeles Chargers, who are a legitimate playoff contender.

In short, Indianapolis must shape up quickly for what will be a brutal stretch of games to finish the season, with four of their remaining seven being in the AFC South.

Back from the bye week, and my first impression is that Jaguars win over the Chargers means Colts can't hit cruise control in AFC South.

Indianapolis has the fourth-toughest remaining schedule in the NFL; Jacksonville has the fifth-easiest, albeit with two against the Colts.

— Joel A. Erickson (@JoelAErickson) November 17, 2025

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Oct 26, 2025; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Indianapolis Colts quarterback Daniel Jones (17) looks to pass during the first quarter against the Tennessee Titans at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Goddin-Imagn Images | Robert Goddin-Imagn Images

The Colts do have Kansas City to focus on, and they'll have to come out of that game with a win while playing far better than they have in recent weeks.

Over Weeks 9 and 10, the Colts fell to the depths offensively, minus the incredible performances from running back Jonathan Taylor. Most of the sluggishness came from QB Daniel Jones.

Jones was sacked a whopping 12 times during that span; he also coughed up six fumbles and threw four picks to just two TD tosses. If this follows Jones into the Chiefs bout, it will spell disaster for a third-straight game and might leak into the divisional games.

While the Colts have been one of the most potent and destructive offenses up to this point, it's not the best look that they've been exposed in recent weeks, even if they won against the Atlanta Falcons in Berlin.

Indy has the tough Texans defense immediately after they play the Chiefs. This means they can ill-afford to lose at Arrowhead, even if Jones bounces back and the offense looks better in protection and execution.

Shane Steichen has luckily had an entire week to reset himself, his team, his gameplan, and approach ahead of a crucial AFC clash with the Chiefs.

While everything doesn't hinge on Indy winning against Patrick Mahomes, it would really help their confidence and momentum ahead of their tilt with the Texans in Week 13.

We'll see what ensues for Indianapolis throughout the week as they get ready for a contest that has the appeal of a primetime NFL matchup.

Colts going to face the Chiefs in KC coming off b2b losses and their season on the brink at 5-5. Would be quite a win if they could go in there and pull it off.

— Josh Boeke (@JoshBoeke) November 17, 2025