Will Indy Break the Curse? Looking at Colts Best Bets vs. Jaguars

The Indianapolis Colts will try to break a decade-long curse vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars as we look at the best bets.

Indianapolis Colts tight end Tyler Warren (84) makes a catch for a touchdown Sunday, Nov. 30, 2025, during a game against the Houston Texans at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. | Christine Tannous/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Looking ahead to a pivotal Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars matchup in Jacksonville, Indianapolis is trying to snap one of the strangest droughts in football: the Colts haven’t won at EverBank Stadium since September 21, 2014.

After dropping three of their last four, Indianapolis is scrambling to steady the ship and keep pace in the AFC playoff picture.

Let’s dive into the Week 14 player props and tendencies. We enter the week at 29–24 on the season with Colts Best Bets.

heading into week 14. pic.twitter.com/5hOD2zsUDh

— Indianapolis Colts (@Colts) December 3, 2025

Jacksonville enters this matchup as a very middling team across most metrics, landing between 12th and 22nd in nearly every category except two: run defense (7th) and coverage (6th). Those strengths matter, especially with the way defenses have keyed on Jonathan Taylor in recent weeks.

Indianapolis faced the No. 6 rush defense in Houston last week; now, they get the No. 7 rush defense in Jacksonville. Taylor couldn’t find the end zone in Week 13, and Shane Steichen will need to find different ways to get his star running back going.

We’re starting the card with a hungry dog runs faster mentality. This Colts team needs a win badly and is desperate to shake off the embarrassing losing streak in Jacksonville.

I like Colts ML (-125) to open the card. Jacksonville’s 20th-ranked pass rush should finally give Daniel Jones some breathing room after weeks of heavy pressure, helping steady this offense.

The last time Daniel Jones played at EverBank Stadium against the Jaguars:

🎯 19/30 completions
📈 202 passing yards
🔥 1 pass TD | 1 rush TD
👀 107 rushing yards
⭐️ 88.2 QBR#ForTheShoe pic.twitter.com/oQG8vwBbof

— SleeperColts (@SleeperColts) December 3, 2025

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This play pairs perfectly with Colts Team Total Over 23.5 (-130). Indianapolis has cleared 23.5 points in 8 of 12 games this season—and in every single one of their wins.

So if you’re taking the Colts to win, tag the over 23.5 on your card.

Teams are clearly keying on stopping Jonathan Taylor at the line of scrimmage. I expect Shane Steichen to get the ball in his star back’s hands through the passing attack.

That leads us to Jonathan Taylor over 2.5 receptions (-145). He’s hit this line in 7 of his last 10 games, and Indianapolis is clearly trying to manufacture touches for him.

Looking at Jacksonville props, Indianapolis hasn’t been able to shut down passing offenses in crunch time. That’s why I see value in Trevor Lawrence over 215.5 passing yards (-110).

Nov 30, 2025; Nashville, Tennessee, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) passes the ball against the Tennessee Titans during the first half at Nissan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steve Roberts-Imagn Images | Steve Roberts-Imagn Images

Lawrence has cleared this number in 7 of his last 10 outings. The Colts' secondary ranks 29th in coverage grade, making this a favorable matchup for him.

Staying with Indy’s coverage issues, there’s value in Brian Thomas Jr. over 47.5 receiving yards (-113). Thomas has posted 103 and 122 yards in his two career games against Indianapolis and has hit this line in 75% of his last 20 games.

The Colts enter Week 14 in a spot where every possession and every margin matters. If Indianapolis can finally break the Jacksonville curse, these plays set up well for a profitable card.

The matchup trends all point to a tight divisional game that comes down to execution and adjustments. If the Colts handle their business, the board gives us plenty of angles to attack.

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