NFL QB Rankings 1-To-32: Where’s Cowboys’ Dak Prescott Fit?
Given that he's slated to have a $59.46 million cap hit in 2024, this upcoming campaign will be a crucial one for quarterback Dak Prescott, as he tries to earn another major contract from the Dallas Cowboys.
So where does Prescott -- looking to rebound from a relatively disappointing 2022 season -- stand among the top quarterbacks in the NFL? Here are our rankings of the best quarterbacks in the sport ahead of the 2023 season.
32. Sam Howell, Washington Commanders - Howell had some impressive moments in a Week 18 win over the Dallas Cowboys, but you do have to wonder why the fifth-round pick didn't play sooner if the team believed he could be their full-time starting quarterback in 2023.
Howell now has offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy at his side, and a pretty respectable group of skill-position players at his disposal. We just haven't seen Howell play enough in the NFL to make sweeping projections.
31. Desmond Ridder, Atlanta Falcons - Ridder took over as starting quarterback for Marcus Mariota in the final month of his rookie season, but really wasn't asked to do much more than manage head coach Arthur Smith's offense.
There's no doubt that Ridder will have more on his plate in 2023, but in an offense with running backs Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier, wide receiver Drake London and tight end Kyle Pitts, the former third-round pick still probably won't be the focal point offensively for the Falcons.
30. C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans - New tight end Dalton Schultz has already called Stroud -- the No. 2 overall pick in this year's draft class -- "a baller." That's a welcome sign for a Texans team that's won just 11 games over the last three seasons.
Stroud's supporting cast is still being built around him, but he should be able to lead the team in the right direction with the aforementioned Schultz, running back Dameon Pierce and wide receivers Robert Woods, Nico Collins and John Metchie III at his disposal.
29. Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts - Richardson was the ultimate boom-or-bust pick for the Colts at No. 4, but should be able to lean on his incredible athleticism as he matures as a passer. New head coach Shane Steichen is hoping to mold Richardson into a complete quarterback in the coming years, the same way the Buffalo Bills did with a very raw Josh Allen after taking him seventh overall in the 2018 NFL Draft.
28. Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers - Love appeared to have grown in the 21 pass attempts that he threw last season, looking particularly impressive in relief of Aaron Rodgers during a Sunday Night Football game in Philadelphia in late-November.
But like with Howell, there just isn't enough evidence to make an assessment on Love yet. What we do know is that following up Rodgers and Brett Favre isn't an enviable task.
27. Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh Steelers - Pickett had some gutsy moments late in games during his rookie season, but he also threw seven touchdowns to nine interceptions and was concussed twice in 2022.
The picture is still very much being painted on the former first-round pick, and if Pickett doesn't take a major step forward in his second season, offensive coordinator Matt Canada may be looking for a new job.
26. Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Even if you thought the Cleveland Browns had a ceiling with Mayfield, he had some very impressive moments in four seasons after being selected No. 1 overall. It's hard to read too much into his split season last year with the Carolina Panthers and Los Angeles Rams, and he clearly wasn't healthy for his final season in Cleveland.
The belief here is that, at a minimum, Mayfield is one of the 32 best quarterbacks in the NFL. But he needs to leave no doubt about that in 2023, or he'll be a backup moving forward.
25. Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers - Young's 5-foot-10 height isn't that concerning, but his weight -- 204 pounds at the NFL combine, and likely less when his rookie NFL season begins -- is. It's hard to argue with Young's collegiate production, which included 79 touchdown passes over his final two seasons at Alabama. But can head coach Frank Reich help the No. 1 overall pick to protect himself at the NFL level?
24. Mac Jones, New England Patriots - Jones had the best rookie season of any quarterback in the 2021 NFL Draft class, but regressed in 2022 after Matt Patricia and Joe Judge were tasked with taking over key offensive coaching positions following the departure of Josh McDaniels.
Bill O'Brien is back at offensive coordinator in 2023, so that should help to fix one major issue. However, other major issues -- a lack of skill-position talent being at the forefront -- remain in New England.
23. Jimmy Garoppolo, Las Vegas Raiders - Garoppolo's placement on this list assumes that he recovers from the left foot surgery in March, passes a physical and does indeed play for the Raiders. From there, we kind of know what Garoppolo is -- a starting-caliber quarterback with limitations that teammates seem to rally around but is likely to get injured at some point. Maybe Garoppolo will be a better fit in the aforementioned McDaniels' offense, but he certainly doesn't seem to be a talent upgrade over his predecessor.
22. Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans - Tannehill has generally been an average-to-above-average quarterback during his four seasons with the Titans, but he has quite a few things working against him in 2023. Even if wide receiver Treylon Burks breaks out in his second NFL season, the Titans are still thin (pending a move) on pass catchers. And it feels like second-round pick Will Levis is being groomed to succeed Tannehill at quarterback as soon as 2024.
21. Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals - It wasn't that long ago that Murray appeared to be on the cusp of being one of the top-five quarterbacks in the NFL. But his work ethic being questioned was the most notable part of the five-year/$230.5 million extension Murray signed prior to the 2022 season. And after tearing his right ACL late in the 2022 regular season, it's unclear when Murray will be ready to play again.
Given the possibility that the Cardinals will have two top-five picks in the 2023 NFL Draft, it is conceivable that new general manager Monti Ossenfort and head coach Jonathan Gannon seek a way to move on from Murray in favor of another QB prospect after 2023.
20. Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos - Wilson's decade with the Seattle Seahawks was arguably good enough to put him into the Hall of Fame regardless of what happened in the future, but he certainly tested that theory in a disastrous first season with the Broncos.
Sean Payton -- who some think a lock to one day be enshrined in Canton -- is in as the head coach. If Wilson, now 34, doesn't rebound in 2023, he may not get a third season with the Broncos. … even with the challenging cap ramifications.
19. Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers - There are plenty of qualifiers to be issued when discussing Purdy, the biggest being that he benefitted from stepping into a loaded offense led by head coach Kyle Shanahan, arguably the best offensive mind in the sport today. But the 49ers were 5-0 in games Purdy started in the regular season, with the seventh-round pick tossing 13 touchdowns to four interceptions.
It's unclear if Purdy would have led the 49ers to a victory over the Philadelphia Eagles had he not torn his UCL in the NFC Championship Game, but he's earned the right to start at quarterback for the 49ers whenever he's healthy.
18. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions - The Lions could have gotten out of Goff's contract after 2022, but he and the Lions played so well down the stretch that it wasn't even a consideration this offseason. Still, Detroit drafted quarterback Hendon Hooker in the third round of the NFL Draft, so they are keeping their long-term options open. If the former No. 1 overall pick isn't able to lead the Lions to their first playoff appearance since 2016, there's no guarantee he'll be back in 2024.
17. Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints - In his first -- and as it turned out, only -- season playing under head coach Josh McDaniels, Carr underwhelmed. But he's just a couple years removed from leading the Raiders to a postseason berth, even in a season where the team had every excuse to collapse.
In a wide-open NFC South, Carr could easily join an offense with running back Alvin Kamara and second-year wide receiver Chris Olave and help the Saints to win a division title.
16. Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks - There's two types of people: Those who predicted Smith's late-career breakout season in 2022 and those who are honest.
Smith led the Seahawks to a surprising playoff berth in their first year post-Wilson, throwing 30 touchdowns to 11 interceptions and racking up 4,282 passing yards. The former first-round pick of the New York Jets was rewarded with a three-year/$75 million deal in the offseason, but it's one that the Seahawks could get out of after just one campaign if Smith regresses in 2023.
15. Daniel Jones, New York Giants - Jones got too much blame when the Giants team around him was disastrous for a bulk of his first three NFL seasons. Some have perhaps gotten a bit carried away in touting him now that he has a legitimate playcaller in head coach Brian Daboll and was able to lead the Giants to a playoff win in Minnesota in January.
You can win games with Jones, particularly when you lean on his legs, and limit his turnovers. But is winning one playoff game the ceiling with Jones as your quarterback? That remains to be seen.
14. Justin Fields, Chicago Bears - Fields has accomplished less at the NFL level than some of the quarterbacks below him on this list. But outside of Michael Vick and Lamar Jackson -- more on him in a minute -- Fields may be the most gifted running quarterback that the sport has ever seen, as evidenced by the fact that he rushed for 1,143 yards in just 15 games a year ago.
If he can have the same type of third-year jump as a passer that Jalen Hurts did for the Philadelphia Eagles last year, Fields could very well compete for an MVP. Chicago offensive coordinator Luke Getsy is probably a future head coach, and with the addition of wide receiver D.J. Moore, the Bears should be able to get the most out of Fields in 2023.
13. Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams - Stafford was arguably too good of a solider in Detroit, wasting parts of 12 seasons with a poorly-run franchise before finally asking for a trade. Naturally, he helped guide the Rams to a Super Bowl title in his first season with the team.
The former No. 1 overall pick's second season in Los Angeles was fairly disastrous, though, as two stints in concussion protocol limited him to just nine games. Head coach Sean McVay and former All-Pro wide receiver Cooper Kupp are still in Los Angeles, but the team around Stafford -- as it typically was in Detroit -- doesn't look great. And you wonder if the beating he took in over a decade with the Lions has finally caught up with him physically at the age of 35.
12. Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins - There were definitely quite a few underthrows from Tagovailoa in 2022, but despite that, the production that he put up in his first season in head coach Mike McDaniel's offense -- 25 touchdown passes, 3,548 passing yards in parts of 13 games -- is undeniable. Could Tagovailoa and the elite wide receiver duo of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle make a deep run in the AFC playoffs? Sure, if he's able to avoid concussions, and other injuries, that have put his career in jeopardy.
11. Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings - There's a dropoff between the ceiling of the top 10 quarterbacks and Cousins, but you can only overlook seven seasons of throwing for over 4,000 yards for so long. You may not be able to win a Super Bowl with Cousins leading your offense, but he's a quarterback capable of getting you to or close to the postseason every year. If this is his final year in Minnesota, there will no doubt be a market for the 34-year-old in free agency next offseason.
10. Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns - There's no overlooking the sexual misconduct allegations that cost Watson the better part of two NFL seasons, even as he now moves forward with his career.
What we would say is that he was a top-five quarterback before his alleged off-field behavior and the organizational incompetence of the Texans interrupted his career. At 27, it's hard to believe he won't re-emerge as one of the better players in the league.
9. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys - Prescott did finish in a tie for the league-lead with 15 interceptions, despite being limited to 12 games. But he's been incredibly productive since entering the league in 2016, and should benefit from the addition of veteran wide receiver Brandin Cooks and the potential re-emergence of fellow wideout Michael Gallup, on top of star target CeeDee Lamb.
The pendulum on Prescott has swung too far in the wrong direction based off of a relatively disappointing season.
8. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars - Lawrence led the Jaguars to a remarkable playoff comeback last January, helping Jacksonville to overcome a 27-0 deficit at the hand of the Los Angeles Chargers and escape with a 31-30 victory. But the former No. 1 overall pick also threw four first-half picks, a major reason why they faced a seemingly insurmountable deficit. If Lawrence can limit his turnovers -- he had eight interceptions and 12 fumbles in 2022 -- he'll be a top-five quarterback.
With the addition of wide receiver Calvin Ridley, Lawrence should be able to do just that in his second year under head coach Doug Pederson.
7. Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets - Even after a disappointing final season in Green Bay, Rodgers could only fall so far on this list. He's one of the greatest quarterbacks in NFL history, and he has quite the history of performing at an elite level when he's operating out of spite.
A move to the Jets -- where he'll join rising star wide receiver Garrett Wilson and running back Breece Hall -- should allow Rodgers to extend his career as long as he chooses.
6. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens - Jackson is a bit of a wild card because he's only played in 24 of a possible 34 regular-season games the past two seasons. But the dark cloud of his contractual status no longer hangs over the team, as he inked a five-year/$260 million deal that guaranteed him $185 million back in April.
Greg Roman was the right offensive coordinator for Jackson in 2019, but his offense didn't grow enough as Jackson made great strides in his passing ability. New offensive coordinator Todd Monken should open up the passing game, as should the additions of Odell Beckham Jr., Zay Flowers and Nelson Agholor around the former NFL MVP.
5. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles / The growth that Hurts has shown in three NFL seasons is hard to fathom. He's dramatically improved as a passer, without sacrificing his elite decision-making. He's also run for 750+ yards and at least 10 touchdowns in each of the past two seasons.
Former offensive coordinator Shane Steichen was rightfully given quite a bit of credit in helping to develop Hurts, which is why he's now the head coach in Indianapolis. But that goes both ways, and the skillset of Hurts may mean that Steichen's successor -- former quarterbacks coach Brian Johnson -- is soon a head coach himself.
4. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers - Because Herbert hasn't led the Chargers to a playoff win in his three NFL seasons, some will scoff at him being this high. But what we see in Herbert is the next evolution of Stafford, a super-tough quarterback with a cannon of an arm that's also a threat to run the ball.
The Chargers are a snake-bitten franchise, and have been since Philip Rivers was their quarterback in San Diego. But while we hesitate to ever bet on Los Angeles, there's a real feeling that he could explode in his fourth season if new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore goes bombs away with Herbert.
3. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills - Allen has a chance to go down as the most physically-gifted quarterback in NFL history. He's 6-foot-5, 237 pounds and is capable of both running by you or over you, perhaps to a fault. He's also got one of the strongest arms that the sport has ever seen. In his second year under offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, Allen needs to limit his turnovers.
Perhaps the Bills can aid him in that quest by finally being able to turn to someone other than Allen to be their leading rusher in crucial games.
2. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals - Burrow certainly isn't the second-most talented quarterback in the NFL, but he's more than good enough when you couple his skillset with an "it-factor" that's off-the-charts even for star quarterbacks.
If you could build a QB in a lab, you'd be more likely to build Herbert or Allen. But while someone like Allen is comparable to a peak version of Rodgers, Burrow might have a Tom Brady-esque career where his team always ends up among the final ones standing in the postseason.
1. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs - Mahomes will turn 28 early in the 2023 season, and already has two NFL MVPs, two first-team All-Pro selections, two Super Bowl MVPs and two Super Bowl titles on his resume. With Brady retired, Mahomes is unquestionably the face of the sport. And he's on track to finish on the Mount Rushmore of quarterbacks, even if it means displacing someone like Peyton Manning, John Elway or Joe Montana.
You can follow Tim Kelly @TimKellySports on Twitter, Facebook and Instagram.
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