Cowboys Record: Best- And Worst-Case Scenarios
The Dallas Cowboys have every reason to be optimistic entering 2021.
A healthy Dak Prescott, a raring to go Ezekiel Elliott, and no more Mike Nolan. Combine these factors with a rejuvenated and young defensive corps and, hopefully, an improved offensive line, and the potential isn't hard to see.
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But, can Mike McCarthy push aside the woes of 2020 and get the most out of their team this year? Well, Pro Football Focus has predicted both the best and worst scenario outcomes for every NFL team, and they seemed cautiously optimistic.
The worst-case scenario has the Cowboys finishing with a painfully familiar number of wins... 6-11:
Dallas’ defense isn’t able to keep them in enough games. The Cowboys can’t keep opposing offenses from running all over them, much like 2020 when their 2.3 yards allowed before contact per run was a half-yard worse than any other defense in the league. Randy Gregory’s strong close to last season (80.5 PFF grade) doesn’t carry over in a full-time starting role in 2021, leaving Demarcus Lawrence with little help along the defensive line. And the secondary plays up to its 31st-place preseason ranking.
Whether this should be read as Dan Quinn failing or their young defense struggling to mesh straight away is up to you, but either way, it would be difficult to see the likes of Cooper, Prescott, Lamb, and co. producing yet again... only to be let down by a leaking defense.
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On a more positive note, the best-case scenario does at least predict a vastly improved defense and an 11-6 record:
The offense lives up to the expectations many had for it heading into the 2020 season with a healthy Dak Prescott, Tyron Smith and La’el Collins. Dallas ranked second in expected points added (EPA) per play in 2019 behind only the Baltimore Ravens, and there’s potential for the unit to be even better with an improved Prescott and CeeDee Lamb’s addition at wide receiver.
Trevon Diggs looks more comfortable in his second NFL season, and the Cowboys get enough out of rookies Kelvin Joseph and Nahshon Wright at cornerback that the defense isn’t a major liability. Dallas boasts one of the best linebacking corps in the league, as well.
Now, this is more like it.
A winning record, red hot offense, blossoming defense, and a linebacker corps for the ages.
Maybe expectations should be tempered slightly so as to not overwhelm the youngsters on the roster, but none of this should be out of reach.
2020 was a poor year.
But this team is still young enough and hasn't lost any irreplaceable talent this offseason. If McCarthy and his team can learn from last year's mistakes, Quinn is able to get their defense in shape, and the players can avoid any 'Hard Knocks' during training camp (Sorry), then the best-case scenario could even be an underestimation...
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