What Are Realistic Expectations for the Dolphins Offense?

There are always high expectations for the Miami Dolphins offense under head coach Mike McDaniel. He’s a highly regarded play-caller and has had a ton of success generating offense in his three years with Miami.

However, the 2024 season — for several reasons — saw the offense take a step back. We have already covered the team’s struggles to generate explosive plays and a consistent running game in depth, but what are realistic expectations for the 2025 group?

Since the Dolphins’ season starts this weekend with a trip to Indianapolis to face the Colts, it’s a good time to dive into what fans should expect from this year’s offense.

Realistic Expectations for Miami’s Passing Game

The Dolphins made a lot of personnel decisions to help the running game this offseason, but this team will only go as far as the passing game takes them.

The running game can do a lot, but Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle need to have better seasons if Miami wants to end its playoff drought. The crux of Miami’s offense is still centered around maximizing Tua Tagovailoa’s accuracy and anticipation with Hill and Waddle’s speed.

That sets up the outside zone rushing attack, and it’s what makes the Dolphins dangerous any given week. Last year, Miami finished 15th in passing yards per game and EPA per dropback.

Given Tagovailoa missed six games last season, finishing in the middle of the pack is actually pretty good. For our realistic expectations, we will assume Tua plays most of the games this season.

In the games Tua played last season, Miami’s passing offense was one of the most efficient groups in the league. It finished fourth in EPA per dropback with Tua at the helm and expecting top-five efficiency from this group in 2025 feels realistic.

Efficiency is one thing, but the team needs to generate more explosive plays this season. Regardless of who was at quarterback in 2024, that wasn’t the case. This obviously incorporates the running game, but we think it’s reasonable to expect Miami’s passing game to be somewhere in the 12-15 range in explosive play rate.

Overall, if Tua stays healthy and the Dolphins’ star receivers play up to their potential, Miami should have a top 10 passing offense. That’s absolutely a realistic expectation for this group.

Realistic Expectations for Miami’s Running Game

The passing game is easier to have faith in due to the star talent that anchors the unit. The running game has a lot of moving parts that go hand in hand.

Let’s start with the running backs. De’Von Achane became a bellcow back last season, but that didn’t lead to better results. There was no way Achane could re-create his 7.8 yards per carry from 2023, but seeing it drop to 4.5 in 2024 was a tough blow.

Achane is expected to get most of the team’s carries again this season, as his primary backup is set to be rookie sixth-round pick Ollie Gordon II because Jaylen Wright is injured. The big question for Achane is whether he can improve his vision.

On the offensive line, the team added Jonah Savaiinaea and James Daniels at guard and is swapping Patrick Paul for Terron Armstead at left tackle. That should lead to some more power in the running game, even if it results in struggles elsewhere.

If you exclude kneel-downs and quarterback scrambles, no team had more negative rushing plays than the Dolphins in 2024.

We think it’s realistic to assume another year of development for Achane’s vision and improved run blocking up front moves the Dolphins closer to the middle of the pack in that category — call it somewhere in the 12 to 15 range.

Pulling back a bit, the Dolphins were 21st in rushing yards per game last season. Assuming they cut out some of the negative plays, that should immediately vault them closer to that same 12 to 15 range.

However, we think it’s realistic to expect legitimate improvement from this group — not just regression to the mean. The Dolphins were sixth in rushing yards per game in 2023, which feels a bit like the group’s ceiling.

Sure, the Dolphins could surpass that, but we think a more realistic expectation is for the team to hover around the 8 to 12 range in 2025.

Final Thoughts

Making a broad prediction that Miami’s offense will be better than last year’s isn’t hard. The team was hit hard by injuries, and key players performed much worse than their talent level.

Plus, the Dolphins have never struggled to generate total yards and points under McDaniel if you look at season totals. The real test for the Dolphins will be whether how they generate those yards and points is more sustainable than in previous years.

The team’s 2023 offense was top of the league in practically every category, but when the chips were down at the end of the season and in the playoffs, the offense mostly folded.

In a recent press conference, general manager Chris Grier mentioned that the team might not have been winning “the right way” over the last couple of years.

Miami needs to find changeups in the passing game. It can’t just be throwing to spots in zone coverage 100% of the time. It’ll need someone like Nick Westbrook-Ikhine or Darren Waller to give them some physicality down the field.

The same can be said of the running game. The team must find the ability to run something that isn’t outside zone consistently. Whether that’s duo, inside zone, or power-based concepts isn’t overly critical, but the Dolphins have to leverage those new guards in some way.

We’re realistically predicting the Dolphins to finish with a top 10 offense if key players stay healthy this season. However, those are all empty numbers if the Dolphins don’t change how their offense actually works.

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