Checking Out the AFC East Opponents on First Day of Free Agency

NFL free agency started Monday with the first day of the legal negotiating period. Although the Miami Dolphins were mostly quiet (so far), the team’s AFC East rivals made a few moves.

The Buffalo Bills have won the division the past five seasons, while the New York Jets and New England Patriots have struggled in recent years. Miami has gone either 4-2 or 3-3 against the AFC East every season since 2021, with the Bills being the primary thorn in their side.

With the Dolphins’ only addition, as of this writing, being backup QB Zach Wilson, here’s a look at what the AFC East did on Monday and how it affects the Dolphins.

Buffalo Bills

Signings: WR Josh Palmer [Agreed to 3-year, $36M deal]

The Bills have only added one new player so far in free agency.

Palmer joins a receiver room that includes Khalil Shakir, free agent Amari Cooper and Keon Coleman. The former Los Angeles Chargers wideout should provide the Bills with another solid separator. However, the Dolphins shouldn’t be too scared of Palmer’s impact.

Palmer has never eclipsed 800 yards in a season and has only had more than 40 catches once in his four-year career. He’s played in multiple offenses and with a good quarterback, Justin Herbert, so Palmer suddenly becoming a dynamic threat seems unlikely.

The real impact Buffalo’s moves will have on the Dolphins is ensuring Miami will have to deal with this version of the Bills for years to come. Before free agency began, the Bills inked Josh Allen, Shakir, Gregory Rousseau, and Terrell Bernard to extensions.

Outside of James Cook, the Bills have locked up their best players on both sides of the ball for the foreseeable future. If the Dolphins want to take back the division crown, they’ll have to figure out how to beat these Bills.

New York Jets

Signings: QB Justin Fields [Agreed to 2-year, $40M deal], LB Jamien Sherwood [Re-signed on 3-year, $45M deal], CB Brandon Stephens [Agreed to a 3-year, $36M deal]

The Jets’ signings indicate they’re a team betting on upside this coming season.

We proposed cornerback Brandon Stephens as a potential option for the Dolphins because he has a lot of room to grow. However, the Jets are signing Stephens to replace DJ Reed, who signed with the Detroit Lions.

Stephens is a worthwhile bet, but he’s nowhere near as consistent as Reed was. For the Dolphins, this should make the Jets’ defense even easier to attack this coming season. New York has struggled to rein in Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle before, and Stephens will likely struggle against whichever one he sees most often.

The other major upside bet is on quarterback Justin Fields. He led the Steelers to a 4-2 record last season before getting benched, but didn’t look that impressive. He recorded 1,106 yards, five passing touchdowns, five rushing touchdowns, and one interception.

Fields spent his time in Pittsburgh operating as a game manager. He mostly took what the defense gave him and tried to minimize costly mistakes.

On first glance, Fields looks like a downgrade from Aaron Rodgers, which is good news for the Dolphins. Rodgers played well against the Dolphins last season, and Fields is much less threatening as a passer.

However, the Dolphins have struggled with mobile passers through the years, and Fields is one of the best running quarterbacks in the league. Additionally, while Fields is less consistent than Rodgers, he does have a much stronger arm.

In Fields’ only start against the Dolphins (2022), he completed 60 percent of his passes for 123 yards, three touchdowns, and zero interceptions. The Dolphins still won that game against the Chicago Bears, 35-32, and much has changed since then.

If the Dolphins can keep Fields’ legs in check, he shouldn’t pose much of a threat.

As for Sherwood, he was arguably the Jets’ best defensive player last season and is still an ascending talent. Miami would’ve likely preferred if he went somewhere outside the AFC East.

New England Patriots

Signings: QB Josh Dobbs [Agreed to a 2-year deal], TE Austin Hooper [Re-signed on 1-year, $5M deal], OL Morgan Moses [Agreed to a 3-year, $24M deal], EDGE Harold Landry III [Agreed to a 3-year, $43.5M deal], DL Milton Williams [Agreed to a 4-year, $104M deal], LB Robert Spillane [Agreed to a 3-year, $33M deal], CB Carlton Davis [Agreed to a 3-year, $54M deal], WR Mack Hollins (Agreed to a 2-year, $8.4M deal)

The Patriots were one of the busiest teams Monday, which was expected since they led the NFL in cap space and had a lot of holes on the roster.

New England didn’t make too many impact moves on offense, but Morgan Moses is a quality starting offensive lineman. The line will still be a pushover if Moses is the only addition, but that seems unlikely.

The real change for the Dolphins will be playing against the Patriots’ defense. New England’s defense was 22nd in total yards allowed per game last season, so it needed a huge infusion of talent, and that’s what it got.

It’s fair to say they overpaid for players like Landry, Williams and Spillane, but all three should be productive starters next season.

The Patriots already had a few good young defenders, such as cornerback Christian Gonzalez, defensive lineman Keion White, and safety Kyle Duggar. Plus, the Patriots hired Mike Vrabel as head coach, and he’s got a good track record of coaching quality defenses.

Overall, the Dolphins shouldn’t feel threatened by the Patriots just yet, but they won’t be a pushover like last season. The defense has plenty of talented players and should be well coached.

If New England can figure out the offensive side of the ball, they might be competing for division titles sooner than later.

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