Kelly: Dolphins 2023 Mock Draft
Draft simulators are fun for all fans because it provides us an opportunity to become our favorite franchise’s decision-maker.
Just imagine filling in as Miami Dolphins General Manager Chris Grier during this critical weekend of restocking the roster.
But I’ve often used them to forecast what might happen during the NFL drafts, identifying a pool of talent that will be available to Miami in each round and showing where runs at positions might take place.
For instance, expect the Dolphins to be left empty-handed on the defensive line unless they use pick No. 51 to address that position.
In my humble opinion, the best way to utilize a draft simulator to produce a realistic outcome is to not reset when your ideal target is taken (don’t lie and say you don’t do it), and to avoid trades (unless that’s your thing) because it produces an unrealistic draft.
Here’s a look at the outcome of a Pro Football Network mock draft simulation I did Tuesday morning, two days before the actual draft kicks off.
I’ll also provide a thorough explanation of the picks.
Round 2, 51st overall — Georgia TE Darnell Washington
The Dolphins’ circle of trust openly admits they will target a tight end in this outstanding draft class for that position. Washington is one of my top 10 targets for the Dolphins, and I feel there’s a decent chance he could be there at 51. Not a strong chance, just a decent one. It depends on when the run on tight ends begins and how many teams picking ahead of Miami need an in-line specialist. Ironically, the Dolphins don’t need an in-line specialist because that’s Durham Smythe’s role, but Washington is an elite blocker, and has the size and talent to start at right tackle. While he timed fast enough (4.64 in the 40-yard dash), he’s a build-up-speed type of route runner, which is a turnoff, so in my opinion that limits him to red zone work. The bottom line is I’m targeting him because of all the blocking help he can provide Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Chosen Anderson and Braxton Berrios on horizontal, stretch plays. I can just imagine how creative head coach Mike McDaniel will become with toss sweeps, jet sweeps, receiver screens, etc.
Round 3, 84th overall — Syracuse OT Matthew Bergeron
With tight end addressed, I’m targeting offensive and defensive linemen with the second of two early-round picks Miami possesses. And I’m not being picky about it either when it comes to adding talent on the offensive line because center Connor Williams, right guard Robert Hunt, right tackle Austin Jackson and projected backups Dan Feeney and Robert Jones all are playing on the final year of their deals. I picked Bergeron over Ohio State’s Dawand Jones because the Buckeyes tackle is carrying some luggage regarding his work ethic and weight. In my opinion that’s a bad combination, and I can’t take those types of chances in Miami, where players easily lose focus. I suspect Bergeron’s style of play will make him an appealing target for zone-blocking teams like Miami. His body type is unimpressive, which is why he’ll likely be available in the third round. But the movement skills are solid. However, he might need a season or two of development.
Round 6, 197th overall — Michigan TE Luke Schoonmaker
With the board cleaned out of quality defensive linemen and offensive line help, I pivot to taking the best available prospects still available in the later rounds. I'm adding at any position but receiver and quarterback (I'll add undrafted players there). I’m stunned when Schoonmaker is still on the board because this late-blossoming Wolverines prospect was atop my secondary tight end options if/when the top six rated tight ends were gone. NFL draft analyst Lance Zierlein is a big Schoonmaker fan, and believes the Dolphins will target him on the second day because he’s “a perfect fit” for how Miami wants to utilize its tight ends. I’ve been told the Dolphins are aggressively shopping for an H-back type to replace Gesicki. Adding Schoonmaker in the same draft class I added Washington might be viewed as overkill, but keep in mind Miami selected Smythe in the same draft they took Gesicki, and Smythe started more games than Gesicki in their five seasons together. My point: You just never know.
Round 7, 238th overall — Maryland C Spencer Anderson
With Miami’s final selection, a seventh-round pick, I’m drafting a player who I feel can not only make the team but can help run the scout team during the season. The scout team is the unit of developmental players who get the first-team offense and defense ready for each week's opponent. They usually are made up of practice squad talent and back-of-the-roster players. Anderson is a versatile lineman who has played just about every position for the Terrapins. According to draft analyst Tony Pauline, another evaluator I respect, Anderson is a hard worker with leadership skills who gets the most out of his ability.
UNDRAFTED FREE AGENTS
When it comes to the undrafted rookie class, I’m sending out offers with $30,000-$100,000 in guaranteed salary to any prospect not selected who were on my draft board. And for the right talent I might go higher than $100,000. It doesn’t matter the position because Miami needs to add a dozen rookies who will serve as cheap labor, and talent for the practice squad.
I’m also taking a flier on potential draftees whose character, limited size, and medical red flags might have gotten them taken off other team’s draft boards.
That’s how the Dolphins ended up with Davone Bess, Chris McCain, Neville Hewitt, Jonathan Freeny, Jordan Kovacs, A.J. Francis and Preston Williams over the years, and those kinds of undrafted gems will be critical to this franchise’s success the next two seasons as the salary cap gets challenged by eight massive contracts that eat up $187 million in cap space next season.
