McDaniel Gets High Daring Rating ... But Will It Continue?
In this story:
Mike McDaniel attracted a lot of attention in his first year as Miami Dolphins head coach, and one of the factors was his bold decision-making on fourth down.
Turns out he was more aggressiveness and daring than all but one other head coach in the NFL, according to a research project from Football Outsiders.
McDaniel came in second in FO's 2022 Aggressiveness Index, which measures how often coaches went for it on fourth down compared to the normal expectations.
McDaniel was given a score of 1.52, indicating he was 52 percent more likely than the average coach to go for the first down in fourth-down situations outside of obvious must-gos — like when a team is trailing in the fourth quarter. The only score higher than McDaniel's was — not surprisingly — that of Philadelphia Eagles coach Nick Sirianni's 1.57. The Eagles, of course, went for it on fourth down throughout the season, most often using the "Tush Push" that's now rumored to be in jeopardy.
Rounding out the top 10 were Arthur Smith of the Atlanta Falcons, Kliff Kingsbury of the Arizona Cardinals, Matt LaFleur of the Green Bay Packers, Dan Campbell of the Detroit Lions, Sean McDermott of the Buffalo Bills, Kevin Stefanski of the Cleveland Browns, Mike Vrabel of the Tennessee Titans, and Kevin O'Connell of the New York Giants.
The least aggressive coach on the Football Outsiders index was Robert Saleh of the New York Jets.
For comparison purposes, Brian Flores ranked 27th on the Football Outsiders Aggressiveness Index for 2021, his last season as Dolphins head coach.
BREAKING DOWN THE MIAMI DOLPHINS' FOURTH-DOWN ATTEMPTS OF 2022
Overall, the Dolphins went for it on fourth down a total of 24 times last season and were successful 13 times for a conversion rate of 54.1 percent.
The Dolphins converted seven times with a run, five times with a pass, and once when the New England Patriots were flagged for a neutral zone infraction in the opener.
Maybe most remarkable of all as we break down the Dolphins' fourth-down attempts is they went for it in the first quarter seven times, second only to the fourth quarter, which happened eight times and is more expected because of comeback situations.
Also remarkable is that the Dolphins went for it on fourth down in their own territory almost as many times (11) as on the plus-side of the field (12) with that New England fourth-down penalty in the opener coming exactly at midfield.
Individually, Jeff Wilson Jr. was 3-for-4 in getting a first down on a fourth-down running play, Raheem Mostert was 2-for-3, Alec Ingold 1-for-1, Tua Tagovailoa 1-for-1, with Chase Edmonds and Clayton Fejedelem (on a fake punt) each 0-for-1.
In the passing game, the Dolphins converted five of the 12 times they threw on fourth down, with two conversions each by Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle and one by Trent Sherfield.
The highlight there, of course, was Tua's 42-yard touchdown pass to Waddle on fourth-and-7 to give Miami a 17-0 lead against New England late in the first half of the opener.
EVERY MIAMI DOLPHINS FOURTH-DOWN ATTEMPT FROM 2022
New England, Week 1
First quarter, 0-0 score, fourth-and-1 from midfield, NE penalized for a neutral zone infraction, first down, drive ends with field goal
Second quarter, Miami leading 10-0, fourth-and-7 from NE 42, Tagovailoa 42-yard TD pass to Waddle
Baltimore, Week 2
Second quarter, Miami trailing 14-7, fourth-and-1 from MIA 34, Ingold 1-yard run, first down, drives end with punt
Second quarter, Miami trailing 21-7, fourth-and-1 from MIA 45, Tagovailoa 1-yard run, first down, drives ends with INT
Buffalo, Week 3
No fourth-down attempts, punts came on fourth-and-2, fourth-and-18, fourth-and-11, fourth-and-2, fourth-and-11
Cincinnati, Week 4
Fourth quarter, Miami trailing 27-15, fourth-and-4 from CIN 45, Bridgewater pass incomplete, turnovers on downs
N.Y. Jets, Week 5
Fourth quarter, Miami trailing 40-17, fourth-and-1 from MIA 34, Mostert run for 0 yards, turnover on downs
Fourth quarter, Miami trailing 40-17, fourth-and-7 from MIA 4, Skylar Thompson pass incomplete, turnover on downs
Minnesota, Week 6
Third quarter, Miami trailing 10-3, fourth-and-1 from MIA 34, Fejedelem run for 0 yards, turnover on down
Fourth quarter, Miami trailing 16-10, fourth-and-5 from MIA 48, Bridgewater 14-yard pass to Hill, first down, drive ends with fumble
Pittsburgh, Week 7
Third quarter, Miami leading 16-10, fourth-and-3 from PIT 14, Edmonds run for 0 yards, turnover on downs
Detroit, Week 8
First quarter, Miami trailing 7-0, fourth-and-4 from DET 44, Tagovailoa 9-yard pass to Waddle, first down, drive ends with fumble
Chicago, Week 9
Third quarter, Miami leading 35-25, fourth-and-6 from CHI 35, Tagovailoa pass incomplete, turnover on downs
Fourth quarter, Miami leading 35-32, fourth-and-1 from CHI 14, Tagovailoa pass incomplete, turnover on downs
Cleveland, Week 10
First quarter, Miami trailing 7-0, fourth-and-1 from MIA 36, Wilson 4-yard run, first down, drive ends with TD
Second quarter, Miami leading 10-7, fourth-and-1 from CLE 14, Wilson run for minus-1 yard, turnover on downs
Houston, Week 12
First quarter, Miami leading 3-0, fourth-and-1 from HOU 12, Tagovailoa 9-yard pass to Sherfield, first down, drive ends with TD
San Francisco, Week 13
Fourth quarter, Miami trailing 23-17, fourth-and-1 from MIA 19, Tagovailoa 9-yard pass to Hill, first down, drive ends with turnover on downs
Fourth quarter, Miami trailing 23-17, fourth-and-2 from SF 36, Tagovailoa pass incomplete, turnover on downs
L.A. Chargers, Week 14
No fourth-down attempts, punts came on fourth-and-10, fourth-and-15, fourth-and-19, fourth-and-14, fourth-and-9, fourth-and-22, fourth-and-11
Buffalo, Week 15
First quarter, score tied 0-0, fourth-and-1 from BUF 23, Mostert 3-yard run, first down, drive ends with field goal
Green Bay, Week 16
Third quarter, score tied 20-20, fourth-and-1 from MIA 34, Mostert 9-yard run, first down, drive ends with missed field goal attempt
New England, Week 17
First quarter, Miami trailing 7-0, fourth-and-1 from MIA 34, Wilson 2-yard run, first down, drive ends with TD
Fourth quarter, Miami trailing 23-14, fourth-and-16 from MIA 26, Thompson 9-yard pass to Jeff Wilson Jr., turnover on downs
N.Y. Jets, Week 18
First quarter, score tied 0-0, fourth-and-5 from NYJ 44, Thompson pass incomplete, turnover on downs
Third quarter, score tied 3-3, fourth-and-5 from NYJ 41, Wilson 8-yard run, first down, drive ends with FG
WILL MIKE McDANIEL REMAINS AS AGGRESSIVE IN 2023?
McDaniel was asked about his fourth-down philosophy before the start of the 2022 season and replied that he didn't want to generalize because every situation would be handled on its own merits.
But he sure looked like a guy who was going to be bold in his first season in the NFL, and maybe that was a way of setting a tone for his players.
It certainly wouldn't be out of line to suggest he might scale back in 2023, particularly when the ball is in Miami territory, and another factor at play could end up being the defense if it improves under new coordinator Vic Fangio, as expected.
One example of a coach scaling back the aggressiveness in a big way is Brandon Staley, who was at the top of the FO Aggressiveness Index in 2021 by a large margin (his rating was above 2, meaning he was more than twice as likely as the average coach to go for it in non-obvious situations) and then fell to 13th last season.
The best assumption here is to expect McDaniel to still be aggressive in his fourth-down decision making in 2023, but perhaps not at quite the same level.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thanks for reading. Make sure to bookmark this site and check back daily for the latest Dolphins news and analysis year-round. Also, you can follow me on Twitter at @PoupartNFL, and that's where you can ask questions for the regular All Dolphins mailbags. You also can ask questions via email at fnalldolphins@yahoo.com.
