Why the Dolphins Will Defeat the Chiefs in Week 14, Why They Will Lose, And What's Actually Going to Happen

The Miami Dolphins will look for their eighth victory in nine games and more importantly keep pace in the AFC playoff race when they face the Kansas City Chiefs at Hard Rock Stadium on Sunday.

The Dolphins (8-4) are coming off a 19-7 victory against the Cincinnati Bengals, while the Chiefs now are tied for best record in the NFL at 11-1 after defeating the Denver Broncos 22-16 on Sunday night.

Here are different ways this game could play out:

The Dolphins will win because ...

-- There aren't many teams that have the kind of defense that can slow down Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense, but the Dolphins happen to be one of those teams.

-- Safety Eric Rowe will prevent tight end Travis Kelce from being the kind of difference-maker he's been in recent weeks, continuing the great coverage work he's done all year.

-- The Dolphins will get more aggressive with their play-calling and Tua Tagovailoa will respond with the first 300-yard game of his young NFL career.

-- The Chiefs will trust cornerback Bashaud Breeland to cover DeVante Parker one-on-one on the outside and will end up paying a big price for it.

-- Tight ends Darren Waller (9-88-1) and Rob Gronkowski (6-106-0) both put up big numbers against the Chiefs defense over the past three weeks and Mike Gesicki will have a similar kind of performance.

-- The interior of the Dolphins offensive line will neutralize Chris Jones and Frank Clark and give Tagovailoa the time he needs to complete passes downfield.

-- Jason Sanders will do what Jason Sanders does and kick four field goals, including one or two from 50 yards or more.

-- Brian Flores and Josh Boyer will come up with a great defensive game plan that will frustrate the Chiefs long enough to pull out a victory.

-- The last one is very simple: The Dolphins will win because they'll show their 8-4 record is not simply the result of having played a relatively soft schedule to this point.

The Dolphins will lose because ...

-- The first reason is rather obvious, and it's that Mahomes will have a typical Mahomes game.

-- The defense will not have any answers as to how to contain speedy wide receiver Tyreek Hill.

-- Kelce will dominate Rowe the same way he's dominated so many other safeties and linebackers this season.

-- The Chiefs running game actually will be the most damaging element of their offense in this one, with rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire putting up big numbers.

-- The Dolphins offense simply won't be able to keep up with Mahomes and company.

-- The Dolphins running game — without Myles Gaskin, Matt Breida and Salvon Ahmed — simply won't be able to perform well enough to help the Dolphins control the clock and keep Mahomes on the sideline.

-- The Dolphins' use of high tempo on offense will backfire when they go three-and-out a couple of times.

-- Harrison Butker will show he's a pretty good field goal kicker himself and make some long-distance kicks.

-- In a big-picture sense, the game will show the Dolphins are simply not yet ready to contend with the best teams in the AFC.

What actually will happen ...

My prediction record for Dolphins games (8-4) continues to mirror that of the team itself and I'm on a two-game winning streak, though predicting that the Dolphins would beat the Jets and Bengals is not exactly a great feat.

This one is trickier, even though the point spread (Chiefs minus 7) suggests it's pretty clear who should win.

But is it?

Are the Dolphins a product of having faced the weakest schedule in the NFL so far (based on opponents' combined winning percentage)? After all, it's not like they had control of who they had to face, and what's wrong with taking care of inferior opponents, which the Dolphins have done decisively on a regular basis this year.

We all can remember the famous Bill Parcells quote: "You are what your record says you are."

It's a fun saying to repeat, though it obviously lacks nuance. After all, did anybody really think before the Steelers lost that they were a better team than the Chiefs because they were 11-0 compared to 10-1?

So maybe the reality when it comes to the Dolphins is that they're still pretty good, but maybe not 8-4 good.

One thing for sure, we'll find out a lot about them in this game.

Brian Flores faced the Chiefs twice in 2018 as the de facto defensive coordinator of the Patriots and shut down Mahomes in the first half, though Mahomes went off in the second half both times.

And it certainly can be argued that while the Dolphins secondary might be on a par to what the Patriots had in 2018, Miami probably is not as good in the front seven.

That's worrisome.

On the flip side, it's encouraging that the Chiefs didn't look overwhelming against Denver last Sunday night and struggled in the red zone.

This will be the sixth time the Dolphins have faced a team that currently has a top 10 offense (in terms of yardage) and the previous results were mixed.

The Dolphins completely shut down the Rams and Chargers, but struggled against the Bills, Seahawks and Cardinals. Of course, it needs to be pointed out that the Dolphins were without Byron Jones for all of the Seattle game and all but four snaps of the Buffalo game. That can't be overstated.

But the Chiefs are a different animal. Plus they're now tied for best record in the AFC and are playing to earn the top seed and the one bye in the first round of the playoffs.

For the Dolphins, a win would be monumental not only for their playoff push but also because it would legitimize their record and stamp them as true contenders.

Unfortunately, it's not good business to pick against Mahomes, who's just some kind of special.

Can the Dolphins win this game? Absolutely.

Will they? Hmm, we'll say not likely.

Chiefs 27, Dolphins 23