How Many Games Experts Predict the Miami Dolphins Will Win in 2026

The Miami Dolphins are entering a rebuild year. With Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle highlighting their departures, the Dolphins have record-setting dead cap numbers, and are replacing their big names with an influx of young, unproven talent.

The expectations are substantially lower than in the Mike McDaniel era, but how much lower? Here are what some industry experts think.

Mike Clay (ESPN): Bottom of the Barrel

Mike Clay projects wins, losses, and individual stats for all 32 NFL teams, and the Miami Dolphins have the worst numbers in the league by a solid margin.

Clay has the team finishing with 2.5 wins, citing the second most difficult schedule in football and a lack of confidence in new quarterback Malik Willis, whom he projects will finish with only 13 touchdowns to 11 interceptions.

Among Clay’s unit rankings (where he looks at 10 position groups), Miami ranked dead last in five categories: wide receiver, tight end, edge rusher, cornerback, and safety. Running back and off-ball linebacker are the only groups that didn’t fall in the bottom six.

Austin Mock (The Athletic): Simulation Snub

While Austin Mock has a slightly higher win total for the Dolphins, his model (which simulates the entire season 100,000 times) still has the team as the worst in football.

The 4.4 win mark is the only one in the league under five, and is accompanied by a 1.3% chance of making the playoffs and 0 percent odds of winning the Super Bowl (both rank last). The Arizona Cardinals are the only other team with a 0 percent chance at a championship.

Moe Moton (Bleacher Report): Ripping on Rookies, Receivers

Bleacher Report’s post-schedule-release prediction is, largely, the same story we’ve seen. Highly touted players being replaced by rookies and one-year deals is a common cause for concern, and Moton highlights it here.

Moton called Miami’s receiver group a “bottom-tier unit” and identified the need to establish an identity under a new head coach as a key to winning games. With Miami’s young roster, Moton stated that may not happen until next season. Thus, he predicts the team will finish with the worst record in the NFL.

Greg Auman (FOX): Focus on the Jets

This is our highest win total so far, and Greg Auman writes that it’s “actually an optimistic projection," given Miami’s over-under is set at 4.5 wins.

He gave the goal of staying “ahead of the Jets”, describing games with the division rival as “easy wins," along with the Las Vegas Raiders, whom Miami will go on the road to face in week 1.

This prediction, according to Auman, means a solid season from Malik Willis, and a road map to acquiring talent in 2027, when Miami has the third most cap space in the league.

Vinnie Iyer (Sporting News): In Bad Company

The optimism (at least when compared to the Vegas line) doesn’t carry over to Vinnie Iyer’s projection. The four teams with over-unders of 5.5 wins or lower (Dolphins, Jets, Raiders, and Cardinals) all received UNDER projections from Iyer, who states the Dolphins’ "figure to be one of the league's worst teams."

Other Predictions

A league’s worst record is nearly a consensus belief. Pro Football Sports Network, Matt Verderame of Sports Illustrated, and Jarrett Bailey of SB Nation each have the Miami Dolphins finishing with three or fewer wins.

ESPN Dolphins writer Marcel Louis-Jacques' one prediction for the team's 2026 season was four wins at Hard Rock Stadium.

The level of variance is low as well. The range of results, among the eight analysts in this piece who provided complete predictions, is between two and five wins, which, at best, would have been tied for the sixth worst record in football in 2025.

There is little conviction that Miami will be competitive, let alone a possible surprise team. We’re still in the middle of the offseason, however, and are lucky that these games aren’t played on paper.

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