Breaking Down the Dolphins' Tragic Numbers

Examining where the Miami Dolphins stand versus other AFC playoff hopefuls

Los Angeles Chargers free safety Derwin James (3) carries the football after an interception against the Miami Dolphins during the fourth quarter at Hard Rock Stadium. | Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

The Miami Dolphins' current four-game winning streak has allowed the team to remain mathematically alive for a playoff berth heading into the final four games of the regular season, but the fact remains tragic numbers are now a factor.

For those not familiar, the tragic number is the exact opposite of the magic number, that combination of wins by one team and losses by specific opponents to clinch a playoff spot.

So the tragic number is the combination of Dolphins losses and wins by certain teams that would automatically eliminate them from beating them out for a playoff spot.

And unfortunately, too many of those numbers are too small.

It's why the Dolphins could be eliminated by late Monday night if they lose against the Pittsburgh Steelers combined with two of the three following outcomes: the Buffalo Bills defeating the New England Patriots, the Houston Texans defeating the Arizona Cardinals and/or the Jacksonville Jaguars defeating the New York Jets.

There are other elimination scenarios involving ties, but those happen rarely enough that we're not going to bother with them.

The Dolphins are tied for ninth in the AFC standings, but the reality is they're that close to being mathematically eliminated from catching some of those teams ahead of them.

THE VARIOUS TRAGIC NUMBERS

At 6-7, the Dolphins already cannot catch in the overall standings the Denver Broncos and New England Patriots, who both are 11-2 and the best the Dolphins can do is 10-7.

The AFC North champion obviously will earn another one of the seven AFC playoff berths regardless of final record.

That leaves three wild-card berths for the Dolphins to target, but with four teams ahead of them in the wild-card chase at the moment.

This is where the Dolphins get hurt by their head-to-head losses against the Los Angeles Chargers and Indianapolis Colts, though head-to-head results are used only in the event a team has swept the others involved in the tiebreaker.

If that doesn't apply, then the next tiebreaker for wild-card spots is conference record, and the Dolphins are in bad shape there because their 3-6 mark in AFC games is the worst among the top 11 teams in the conference standings.

It's why the Dolphins are so close to elimination.

Here are the other teams in playoff contention and the Dolphins' tragic numbers as it relates to each of them:

Jacksonville Jaguars (9-4) — 1*. We put an asterisk here because one Jacksonville win or Dolphins loss will make the best-case scenario for Miami to tie the Jaguars, except that if that result involves an AFC game, it will clinch the tiebreaker for Jacksonville there based on conference record.

L.A. Chargers (9-4) — 1. No asterisk needed here because one Chargers victory or Dolphins loss means the best Miami could do is match the L.A. record and the Chargers not only won the head-to-head matchup, they also have clinched a better conference record.

Buffalo Bills (9-4) — 2. This is simply a matter of record because any combination of two Buffalo wins or Dolphins losses will make it impossible for Miami to match the Bills' record.

Houston Texans (8-5) — 2. While the Dolphins are two games behind the Texans and not three, like the previous three teams we mentioned, Houston already has seven conference wins and the best the Dolphins can do is six conference wins.

Indianapolis Colts (8-5) — 2*. Like Jacksonville, this one has an asterisk because the tragic number is two if one of the bad results (Colts win or Dolphins loss) is an AFC matchup because the best the Dolphins can do right now is match Indianapolis' conference record.

HOW THE DOLPHINS GET IN

Based on the New York Times playoff simulator, the Dolphins still have a less than 1 percent chance of making the playoffs — despite their four-game winning streak — and their bad standing in tiebreaker situations is a big reason.

The Dolphins pretty much have to run the table to have any sort of chance to make the playoffs, but then still would need help, such as any combination of four losses in the last four games by the Chargers, four losses by Jacksonville, three AFC losses by Buffalo, three losses overall by Houston and three losses by Indianapolis.

Yeah, not likely.

There are a couple of scenarios where the Dolphins could make the playoffs even with one loss in their final four games, but those would require either Jacksonville or Buffalo losing out — and with the Jaguars, it would require Miami's loss specifically to be against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in an AFC-NFC game.