Dissecting Tua Tagovailoa's 2025 Regression

What’s wrong with Tua Tagovailoa? It’s a question that many people around the Miami Dolphins and South Florida are asking after his brutal performance against the Cleveland Browns in Week 7.

We already covered some of what went wrong Sunday, but something’s been off with Tua all season. Even his better games (Jets, Panthers) haven’t looked anything close to the standard he set in 2022 and 2023.

In fact, it’s mostly been worse than what happened last year. While 2024 was a step back, Tua was at least an efficient passer who helped the Dolphins go on a small run when he returned from his concussion.

What we’ve seen on the 2025 tape is much worse than whatever limitations showed up last season. Frankly, trying to separate Tua’s struggles from the overall offensive downturn that started at the end of the 2023 season is incredibly difficult.

However, while we might not have a concrete answer for who’s at fault, we do have some theories as to why things look worse in 2025.

Tua’s Best Throw Has Become His Worst

If you watched the 2022 and 2023 Dolphins, you’d know the entire passing game was built on in-breaking, middle-of-the-field routes, roughly 10 or more air yards down the field.

Those were the throws that made Tua one of the NFL’s best anticipation quarterbacks. Combine that with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle’s speed, and you have a unique offense that is difficult to defend.

During those two seasons, Tua completed 122 of 170 passes between the numbers of at least 11 air yards. He also threw 12 touchdowns and eight interceptions, according to PFF charting. This was the bread and butter of the Dolphins’ offense.

In 2024, we started to see a downtick. Tua completed 35 of 54 attempts, but that was far fewer attempts than normal. In 2023, Tagovailoa attempted 41 passes to just the right side of the middle.

If you watch the tape from 2024, it’s easy to see that many defenses were taking it away. It didn’t seem like Miami wasn’t going to that spot because Tua couldn’t, but because it wasn’t open.

For example, the Green Bay Packers did not do a good job closing the middle of the field, and Tua hit eight of his 10 passes there with at least 11 air yards. The Dolphins could take it when it was there last season.

That brings us to 2025, and things have taken a turn for the worse.

Not only can the Dolphins not access the intermediate in-breakers that made the offense hum in previous seasons, but Tua is missing them when they’re open.

This season, Tagovailoa is just nine of 19 on passes in the middle of the field of at least 11 air yards. On those attempts, he’s thrown five of his 10 interceptions this season. The tape on some of these throws is incredibly ugly, too.

Here’s a compilation of some of Tua’s misses in the middle of the field. Not all of these are in-breaking routes, but still, they’re all rough misses.

By no means the first to point this out, but when I think about where Tua is struggling independent of Miami’s other offensive failings, these MOF throws stick out. pic.twitter.com/HW1oHIimbY
— Dante Collinelli (@DanteCollinelli) October 21, 2025

Why Is Tua Missing These Throws?

Look, if I knew the real answer to this, I’d be employed by the Dolphins, but the tape does offer a few answers — however unsatisfying they might be.

The first thing that sticks out is Tua’s footwork. In previous seasons, Tua’s footwork was so quick and precise that he was accurate on these types of throws despite lacking the traditional arm strength to live in this area of the field.

In 2025, he’s gotten happy feet in the pocket, not aligning his steps with his eyes. This has pushed him to sail some of these passes high over the middle.

That uncomfortable QB play has led him to double-clutch on throws he wouldn’t otherwise. Remember his first INT against the Chargers that bounced off Waddle’s hands?

That play was a double clutch where Tua’s feet and eyes were not aligned. The INT is not his fault at all — Waddle needs to catch that pass, but it’s so strange to see Tua lose his impressive feel for the middle of the field.

The other concern here is arm strength. Tua has never had a strong arm, and his inconsistent footwork has sapped some of his arm strength. When he’s trying to drive these deep middle throws, he’s struggling and missing high.

This Makes the Dolphins Uniquely Limited

If you can’t count on Tua to win on those middle-of-the-field routes, what can you count on? It turns out the answer is: not much. Tua is eighth in the NFL in attempts with zero or fewer air yards and 23rd in attempts of more than 20 air yards.

Miami’s passing game has turned into an offense that can’t stretch the field or operate in the intermediate, so it’s devolved into a short-game-only system.

Yes, this is also a reaction to how defenses are playing them. This trend started in 2024, and Mike McDaniel’s lack of adaptation is at least equally, if not more, to blame for why the offense is like this.

Are defenses playing the Dolphins this way because they know it’s all Tua can do, or is it because they know that’s all the Dolphins offense is willing to do? In 2024, it felt like the answer leaned toward the latter.

However, given how bad things have gotten in 2025, it’s hard not to see it as a case where both things can be true. Miami’s offense is limited because of McDaniel’s inability to adapt and because Tua has regressed, independent of the failing pieces around him.

In other words, it’s the worst-case scenario for a team that just signed Tua to a big-money contract.

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