Dolphins Monday Night Game Now Literally a Must Win

What the early Sunday game results meant for the Dolphins' playoff possibilities

Miami Dolphin's head coach Mike McDaniel stands on the field during a week 14 football game between the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins at MetLife Stadium on Sunday, Dec. 7, 2025. | Julian Leshay Guadalupe/NorthJersey.com / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

After a disappointing — though not totally unexpected — lack of help from outside sources, the Miami Dolphins now will be facing elimination when they face the Pittsburgh Steelers at Acrisure Stadium on Monday night.

The Dolphins' tragic number was reduced to one after the results of the early games Sunday, specifically the victories by the Buffalo Bills against the New England Patriots, the Houston Texans against the Arizona Cardinals, and the Jacksonville Jaguars against the New York Jets.

There was a slim possibility the Dolphins could make the playoffs even with one loss in their final four games, but that disappeared, and now Miami has to finish 10-7 to have any chance.

Basically, this is where the Dolphins stand: The only teams ahead of them in the playoffs they can catch are the Buffalo Bills, Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts.

The only way that can happen with Buffalo is if Miami wins out (against Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Tampa Bay and New England) and Buffalo loses out (at Cleveland, vs. Philadelphia, vs. New York Jets).

In that event, both teams would be 10-7, and the Dolphins would get the tiebreaker by virtue of a better division record (would be 4-2 vs. 3-3 because that would assume a Miami victory at New England in Week 18, along with the Buffalo loss against the Jets).

The Dolphins would lose a tiebreaker against Houston based on conference record, so they have to win out, and Houston would have to lose its final three games (vs. Las Vegas, at L.A. Chargers, vs. Indianapolis).

With Indianapolis, which sits at 8-5, the Colts would need to lose at least three of their final four games (Seattle, San Francisco, Jacksonville and Houston) to end up at 9-8.

HOW THE RESULTS HURT THE DOLPHINS

Here's a quick look at how the early games impacted the Dolphins:

-- Buffalo over New England: The Bills moved to 10-4 with their victory, which means Miami has to win out, and Buffalo has to lose its final three games to create a tie at 10-7.

-- Jacksonville over N.Y. Jets: This is the same scenario as the one involving Buffalo, with the Jaguars moving to 10-4 on the season.

-- Houston over Arizona: The Texans moved to 9-5 with the win, meaning the best the Dolphins could do with one more loss is tie them, but Houston already has clinched the tiebreaker by virtue of its seven conference wins, while the best Miami can do is six conference wins.