Dolphins Playoff Outlook Heading Into Week 17 ... And All the Wild Possibilities

The Miami Dolphins worked their way into seventh place in the AFC standings with two weeks to go in the 2021 NFL regular season, but there remains a crazy logjam among playoff contenders that has opened up all types of scenarios.

Right away, there are two absolutes when it comes to the Dolphins and their playoff outlook heading into Week 17:

1) If they defeat both Tennessee and New England, they will be back in the playoffs for the first time since 2016.

2) If they lose against both the Titans and the Patriots, they will not make the playoffs.

But in between those two possible outcomes lie endless possibilities because of all the teams involved, with every team in the AFC still in contention outside of the Jaguars, Texans and Jets.

For the Dolphins, the possible outcomes go from a worst-case scenario of being eliminated next weekend to losing and still being alive for the playoffs, according to analytics website FiveThirtyEight.com.

And the best part is there is a path to the playoffs for the Dolphins with a 1-1 finish, regardless of the team that hands them that one loss. It involves five other favorable outcomes over the final two weeks.

So ...

The Dolphins will make the playoffs if ...

They go 2-0.

Or if they go 1-1 and ...

-- Denver beats the L.A. Chargers in Week 17.

-- Cleveland beats Pittsburgh in Week 17.

-- Cincinnati beats Cleveland in Week 18.

-- Pittsburgh beats Baltimore in Week 18.

-- L.A. Chargers beat Las Vegas in Week 18.

Here's the worst-scenario, though, again according to FiveThirtyEight.com ...

The Dolphins will be eliminated in Week 17 if ...

This scenario obviously begins with Tennessee ending the Dolphins' winning streak at seven games.

If that happens, and Las Vegas wins at Indianapolis, New England wins at home against Jacksonville and the L.A. Chargers win at home against Denver, then the Dolphins will be eliminated from playoff contention.

Why the Dolphins are in seventh place among four teams with an 8-7 record

The Dolphins are one of four AFC teams with an 8-7 record, along with the Baltimore Ravens, L.A. Chargers and Las Vegas.

So why is it that they get the seventh spot in the AFC standings ahead of the other three?

Here we go:

Step 1 in multiple-team tiebreaker scenarios for a wild-card berth is to settle division tiebreakers first. In that scenario, the Chargers defeated the Raiders earlier this season (they play again in Week 18), so the Raiders are out.

Step 2 is head-to-head results, but we can't apply here because the Dolphins didn't face the Chargers and the Ravens split against the other two teams.

Step 3 is conference record, where the Dolphins and Chargers are 5-5 and the Ravens are 5-6. That knocks out the Ravens.

Step 4 is record in common games, and that's where the Dolphins beat out the Chargers. The common opponents have been the Patriots, Raiders, Texans, Ravens and Giants, and the Dolphins have a 4-1 record against those teams compared to 2-3 for the Chargers.