Revisiting the Five Biggest Reasons for Concern for Dolphins Heading into 2023 Regular Season

The Miami Dolphins have reached the halfway point of the 2023 season (sorta) and they overall have to be pretty happy with their 6-3 record and first-place standing in the AFC East.

Before the season began, we listed the five biggest reasons for concern that the Dolphins might not be able to duplicate their playoff season of 2022, so it's a good time to revisit those to see how they played out in the first nine games, along with the outlook for the rest of 2023 (and January).

1. THE INJURY HISTORY

Before the season: Let's start here by saying that pointing out that injuries could derail a season could apply to just about any team in the NFL because, let's face it, the Chiefs aren't the Chiefs without Patrick Mahomes, the Bills aren't the Bills without Josh Allen, and so on. It's just that the Dolphins have some key players with a lengthy injury history that suggests it's more likely than not that they'll miss some games. That, of course, starts with quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, but also includes another key player on offense, tackle Terron Armstead, whose status for Week 1 is in question after he went down with a lower-leg injury in the second joint practice at Houston. And that's not even mentioning that the team's prized acquisition of the offseason, cornerback Jalen Ramsey, is out until December because of a knee injury.

Through nine games: It's been a mixed bag for the Dolphins when it comes to injuries because they have had their fair of players go down, but they didn't lose key players for the season (or most of it) like Buffalo with Tre'Davious White, Matt Milano and Da'Quan Jones; like the Jets with Aaron Rodgers and Alijah Vera-Tucker; like the Ravens with J.K. Dobbins; like the Browns with Nick Chubb, and so forth. Armstead indeed had to miss some games, but Tua didn't miss a snap in the first half of the season except in blowout situations and Ramsey made it back to the lineup in October to obliterate the projected timeline.

The outlook for the rest of 2023: There's just simply no way of knowing how things will play out in terms of injuries the rest of the way, but what we do know that rookie sensation De'Von Achan is nearing his return to the lineup and that's only going to help the Dolphins as they begin the stretch run.

2. A LOADED CONFERENCE

Before the season: Such is life in the NFL that the balance of power shifts from conference to conference every few years, and it's unfortunately heavily skewed toward the AFC at this time. And we mean HEAVILY skewed. If the Dolphins were in the NFC, the biggest question at this time would be what seed the team could attain for the playoffs. In the AFC, it's an entirely different story because there will be some very good, playoff-caliber teams that won't make the playoffs. At this time, it sure appears that Kansas City, Cincinnati and Buffalo stand a hair above others in terms of favorites, but then you start going through the list of AFC playoff contenders and it just never ends: Dolphins, Jets, Ravens, Steelers, Browns (yes, the Browns), Jaguars, Chargers. That's now 10 good teams and that's not even including the Denver Broncos, who would surprise no one if they bounced back in a big way now that Sean Payton is their head coach. The Dolphins are a good, maybe even very good team, heading into the 2023 season. They're just one of many of those, however.

Through nine games: Look at the AFC standings and the 10 teams we mentioned are among the 11 who are .500 or better through nine weeks, the only one crashing the party being the upstart Houston Texans of new head coach DeMeco Ryans and rookie hotshot QB C.J. Stroud. The Jets are hanging in there at 4-4 despite having lost Rodgers and having a barely functional offense, while the Chargers are having a typical Chargers year, meaning they're not as good as many had expected. But this is still a loaded conference — much better than the NFC, that's for sure — just as we expected it to be.

The outlook for the rest of 2023: There absolutely figures to be a wild battle for the final playoff spot or two (or three) in the AFC, but the Dolphins sure look heading into the second half of the season like a team that will comfortable get in, particularly when considering they're likely to be favored in each of their next five games — against the Raiders, at the Jets, at Washington, vs. Tennessee, vs. the Jets. The question will be whether they can hold off the Bills to win the AFC East title for the first time since 2008 and maybe even make a push for one of the top seeds in the conference, if not THE top seed.

3. WAS THE OFFENSE FIGURED OUT?

Before the season: We don't need to remind Dolphins fans that the offense went from borderline unstoppable at the end of November to a struggling unit in the final six games of the regular season, and the problems began before Tua was sidelined with his second concussion. So the question is whether sub-par execution was the issue for the Dolphins or opponents found the antidote for an offense that was hurting defenses with its speed. Whether the Dolphins offense can return to its top form of 2022 is a key question, but it certainly can't go back to the struggles of later in the season.

Through nine games: Well, judging by the fact the Dolphins are first in the NFL in total yards and passing yards and for most of the season also were first in rushing yards, the answer is a resounding "no" here. But ... it's hard to get away from the fact that the Dolphins managed only 20, 17 and 14 in their three marquee matchups against the Bills, Eagles and Chiefs. This is where, of course, we point out that all three of those games were on the road and that when the Dolphins faced lesser competition at home, they steamrolled everybody — especially the Broncos.

The outlook for the rest of 2023: The Dolphins will get more chances to show their offense can be potent regardless of the opponent with their closing three-game stretch of Dallas, Baltimore and Buffalo. Until then, it's safe to anticipate the offense continuing to put good numbers (though it might not be so easy against the Jets). Bottom line, though, the answer to this question very well could be the biggest indicator of how far the Dolphins can go this season.

4. ARE SPECIAL TEAMS SOLIDIFIED?

Before the season: Given the difficulty of the Dolphins' 2023 schedule, a little help from the special teams would be welcome. At the very least, it would be nice if the special teams weren't a hindrance like they were last year when the Dolphins were 32nd in kickoff return average allowed, 31st in punt and kickoff return average produced, and 25th in punt return average allowed. Yeah, that's not going to cut it. The question now is whether things will get better this season.

Through nine games: Things got off to a really bad start, with a missed PAT in Week 1, a blocked field goal attempt in Week 2, and a kickoff return for a touchdown allowed in Week 3 (albeit in the fourth quarter of the blowout win against Denver), though things have settled down since. Braxton Berrios has been very solid as the returner, the kick coverage has been good since that snafu, and Jason Sanders has made his kicks (though it's usually been extra points and not field goals). So this is a win for the Dolphins.

The outlook for the rest of 2023: Special teams really have decreased in importance around the NFL in recent years, so there's no guarantee they'll be a factor down the stretch. At the very least, the Dolphins can take some comfort in knowing they're now solid in the kicking game and that Sanders did come through last season (after a disappointing year for him) with that clutch 50-yard field goal against the Jets to send the Dolphins to the playoffs.

5. CAN THE DEFENSE LIVE UP TO EXPECTATIONS?

Before the season: The arrival of Vic Fangio as defensive coordinator created huge expectations for the Dolphins defense, and why not? After all, Fangio is universally recognized as one of the brightest defensive minds around and he's got a track record of quick turnarounds whenever he's given the keys to a new defense. But, the Jalen Ramsey injury aside, is it really that simple that his arrival will help the defense become, say, a top 10 unit in 2023? There's really a certain level of disrespect for former defensive coordinator Josh Boyer, particularly when you consider the defense was a clear factor — maybe bigger than the offense — in several victories last season (New England, Buffalo, Pittsburgh come to mind). So, yes, every NFL analyst will call Fangio's arrival a major upgrade, but it's not like he'll be tackling players or catching interceptions himself. So, sure, there should be high hopes for the defense. That doesn't mean it's a lock it will have that dramatic improvement.

Through nine games: It took longer than expected or hoped, but it sure looks like that defense we thought we'd get with Vic Fangio's arrival has arrived. The Dolphins have held four of their past five opponents under 300 total yards and the idea that maybe the surge was the byproduct of facing mediocre offenses (like the Giants or Patriots) disappeared when they held Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs to a meager 267 yards last Sunday. The only thing missing from the defensive performance lately has been a good volume of takeaways, but the defense has become a strength on this team and played more than well enough against Kansas City.

The outlook for the rest of 2023: There is zero reason to think the Dolphins defense can't continue its strong work because Jalen Ramsey will only get better the more games he's removed from his return from knee surgery and the same goes for Xavien Howard after his return from his groin injury. The Dolphins will face tough tests against Dallas, Baltimore and Buffalo in the final three weeks, but they seem well equipped to face those, and in the meantime maybe the takeaways will start coming.

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