The Alarming Stat That Must Improve Under the New Regime

New Miami Dolphins general manager Jon-Eric Sullivan emphasized shortly after his hiring that he wanted the team to get bigger because, as he said, fast gets slower but big doesn't get smaller when the weather turns cold and the competition gets hotter.

It's obviously a solid plan because the Dolphins came up short too often in the physicality department the past four years.

And one area where that lack of physicality really showed up — and not in a good way — was in short-yardage situations.

That was illustrated in a social media post by NFL analytics guru Warren Sharp on Friday where he listed each team's success rate on fourth-and-1 over the past three seasons.

The Dolphins were dead last among the 32 teams.

The Dolphins were the only team with a success rate below 50 percent.

That's got to change.

And fast.

And it should change, if Sullivan follows through on his word and makes sure the Dolphins bring a physical element to their offense.

THE UGLY NUMBERS

The Dolphins converted at a 45.5 percent rate on fourth-and-1 from 2023-25, with the next-worst team (according to Sharp) being the Arizona Cardinals at 52 percent.

At the top of the list were the Kansas City Chiefs at 88 percent followed by the Philadelphia Eagles at 85 percent — and perhaps not coincidentally those are the two teams that won the Super Bowl in those past three seasons.

For the Dolphins, this is how the numbers break down, first by year:
2025: 4-for9
2024: 2-for-6
2023: 4-for-7
Total: 10-for-22

And then there's the conversion rate by run or pass:
Run over the past three seasons: 5-for-12
Pass over the past three seasons: 5-for-10
Total: 10-for-22

In either case, not good enough.

There are many reasons for the issues, including sub-par play from the interior of the offensive line, getting too cute with the passing game with a ratio that's much closer to 50-50 than it should be, the lack of a QB who easily can gain a first down with a sneak, such as Jalen Hurts or Josh Allen, to name two.

When it comes to the offensive line, Sullivan told a group of South Florida reporters at the owners meetings this week that there will be competition at the right guard spot and the same just might happen at left guard if 2025 second-round pick Jonah Savaiinaea doesn't show clear signs of improvement during the offseason program or the early part of training camp.

The Dolphins also could benefit from having a big bruising back because, while Ollie Gordon II and Jaylen Wright have their moments of physicality, they're not what anyone would call a short-yardage specialist. And neither is De'Von Achane, for as wonderfully gifted as he might be.

Malik Willis' scrambling ability obviously could make a big difference here because the Dolphins now will have a quarterback with the speed and mobility to get around edge players off a naked bootleg, which can be a very effective fourth-and-1 call.

And maybe new head coach Jeff Hafley will have new offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik less likely to call pass plays on fourth-and-1.

The bottom line is those 12 fourth-down failures over the past three seasons undoubtedly cost the Dolphins points and the difference between winning and losing in the NFL is such that any wasted opportunity could turn a victory into a loss.

As we look for signs of progress in 2026, keep an eye on those fourth-and-1 — third-and-1 as well — situations to see how the Dolphins handle them and what kind of success they can have.

A turnaround in that area will be helpful if the team hopes to produce an overall turnaround.