The Untold Factor in the Dolphins' Cold-Weather Woes

The Miami Dolphins will try a new approach for their Monday night game against the Pittsburgh Steelers

Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (1) looks to throw a pass during the second quarter against the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field in the 2024 season. | Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images

The Miami Dolphins headed to Pittsburgh for their Monday night matchup against the Steelers on Saturday, breaking their normal routine of flying to a non-West Coast city the day before the game.

There obviously was a clear purpose for the change, and the purpose was so that the Dolphins could practice at Acrisure Stadium on Saturday night.

The idea, of course, is to get somewhat acclimated to what will be difficult weather conditions at kickoff, with the forecast calling for temperatures somewhere around the high teens.

It will be the first true cold-weather game of the season for the Dolphins, using 40 degrees as the standard, because the Dolphins' 34-10 victory against the New York Jets last Sunday came with a kickoff temperature of 41 degrees (so it technically doesn't count).

Under McDaniel, the Dolphins are 0-7 in games with the temperature at 40 degrees or below.

Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, meanwhile, has a record (not that W-L is a QB stat) of 0-5 under the same circumstances because two of the Dolphins' losses under McDaniel came with Skylar Thompson and Tyler Huntley as the starting quarterbacks.

THE MORE IMPORTANT FACTOR

The Dolphins' previous offensive style with the emphasis on the passing game wasn't necessarily conducive to cold-weather games for obvious reasons, but there's another factor in the Dolphins' poor record in cold games that too often fails to get mentioned.

The quality of the opposition.

It's truly jarring.

It's not like the Dolphins have lost against bad teams because they simply couldn't handle the elements. It's more accurate to point out they just lost against better teams and couldn't deliver offensively to be able to pull out victories.

The rundown tells the whole story:

2022 at San Francisco, 38 degrees, lost 33-17 — The 49ers finished the 2022 season with a 13-4 record and reached the NFC Championship Game.

2022 at Buffalo, 29 degrees, lost 32-29 — The Bills finished 13-3 and won the AFC East title.

2022 playoffs at Buffalo, 27 degrees, lost 34-31 — Playoff game, so obviously a quality opponent.

2023 playoffs at Kansas City, minus-4 degrees, lost 26-7 — The Chiefs were the defending Super Bowl champions on their way to a second consecutive title.

2024 at Green Bay, 27 degrees, lost 30-17 — The Packers finished 11-6 and made the playoffs.

2024 at New York Jets, 34 degrees, lost 32-20 — This is the one loss against a bad team, but as defensive coordinator Anthony Weaver pointed out Friday, Dolphins players were watching the scoreboard and their playoff hopes vanish with Denver jumping out to a huge lead against Kansas City while the first half was going on at MetLife Stadium. "I'm sure it didn't help the morale of our guys," Weaver said.

Before McDaniel arrived, Tagovailoa played in two cold-weather games (at or below 40) and the Dolphins got routed in both — 56-26 by the Buffalo Bills in the 2020 season finale and 34-3 by the Tennessee Titans late in the 2021 season.

Buffalo was the No. 2 seed in the AFC playoffs in 2020; Tennessee was the No. 1 seed in 2021.

The challenge Monday night is against a Steelers team that has a 7-6 record, but ranks among the bottom six teams in the NFL in both total offense and total defense.

This is a game the Dolphins absolutely can win based on the quality of each team and how each is playing at this time and it's going to be up to the Dolphins to make sure they don't lose because of the element.

To that end, McDaniel's move was a logical one.