Can New Dolphins Formula Pass the Big Test?

The Miami Dolphins game against the Pittsburgh Steelers in prime time Monday is, of course, critical for the team’s long-shot playoff hopes.

However, it’s also an opportunity to squash some of the longstanding narratives that have haunted the team since head coach Mike McDaniel was hired in 2022.

Monday night in Pittsburgh will be cold. The Dolphins will play a team with a winning record. It will also be a prime-time outing in December. Miami has not fared well in the cold or against winning teams.

However, this version of the Dolphins is different. Well, at least it’s looked like a different team since the loss against to the Baltimore Ravens in Week 9. So that begs the question: Is Miami’s new formula good enough to finally overcome those pesky narratives?

Let’s take a look at each and see if the Dolphins are better equipped to handle either this time.

Is Miami’s Offense Better Equipped for the Cold?

This narrative is slightly misleading. The standard discourse you hear on shows like First Take centers on Miami, a Florida team, not being able to field a capable offense because of the cold.

The misleading part of that argument is that Miami’s real issue was with the wind, more than the actual temperature. With McDaniel and QB Tua Tagovailoa, the Dolphins were a pass-heavy team in previous seasons, and Tua doesn’t have the physical tools to cut through the wind with his throws.

Well, the Dolphins are no longer a pass-dominated team. They’ve fully evolved into a run-first and run-often offense with De’Von Achane and an improving offensive line. Miami has rushed for at least 160 yards in the past four games.

Achane is expected to play this week, but even if he’s limited, the team proved it could run with Jaylen Wright and Ollie Gordon.

The real key is how Miami is running the ball this season. It had an effective running game in 2023, and it faltered in the cold conditions. This season, the Dolphins have leaned into heavier formations.

Some of those are anchored in the team’s new six-offensive-linemen package, featuring Daniel Brunskill, and others are just putting more traditional tight ends on the field and fewer running backs.

The team’s bread and butter is still outside zone and attacking the perimeter, but it’s now capable of threatening defenses in a way that translates better to playing in the cold and wind.

Of the two narratives on this list, this is the one Miami is best built to combat.

Can the Dolphins Beat Teams With Winning Records?

Obviously, our previous narrative plays a big role in this one. Miami’s offense is better equipped to survive December conditions, so it should make the team more competitive.

However, it’s hard to fully trust the Dolphins on either side of the ball because of the level of competition. Plus, Miami is 3-15 (including 1-5 this year) in the past three seasons against teams with winning records during the regular season.

Miami has won five of its last six games, and in that stretch, it has beaten the Atlanta Falcons (5-9), Buffalo Bills (9-4), Washington Commanders (3-10), New Orleans Saints (3-10), and New York Jets (3-10).

In that same stretch, Miami’s defense has seen Kirk Cousins, Josh Allen, Marcus Mariota, Tyler Shough and Brady Cook at quarterback. Outside of Allen, that’s a bunch of QBs who started the season as backups.

On the flip side, that group of teams represents some of the worst rushing defenses in the league, and you can include Buffalo in that this time.

The last point against Miami is the team’s regression in the passing game. Yes, running the ball is more important than ever late in the season, but the Dolphins will need to throw the ball to win some of these games.

Right now, the passing game is a shell of itself.

If you’re looking for the positive side of this argument, the Steelers aren’t exactly a juggernaut at 7-6. Their defense has struggled all season, and they’ll be without T.J. Watt, who underwent surgery for a collapsed lung and was released from the hospital Friday. Pittsburgh’s offense is incredibly limited with Aaron Rodgers, too.

Looking ahead, the Cincinnati Bengals are not a winning team, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers dropped to 7-7 after losing against the Falcons on Thursday night.

The only genuinely above-average team left on Miami’s schedule is the New England Patriots, who are 11-2. But, as we know, anything can happen when two divisional foes meet.

If you combine all of that with the team’s new offensive identity and improved defense, it’s pretty easy to see a path to Miami busting this narrative. That is, of course, if you think Miami’s recent streak isn’t fool’s gold.

So, what’s our final verdict? Yes, the Dolphins are better equipped to beat teams with a winning record than in the past. However, this is truly one of those narratives you can’t squash until you actually do it.

Ultimately, Miami will get its first chance to disprove both narratives Monday night. We’ll see if this time is truly different soon enough.

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