What to Make of Tua's Buffalo History

In anticipation of the Miami Dolphins’ Week 3 Thursday night matchup against the Buffalo Bills, much has been made of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa’s poor record against the Bills.

He’s 1-8 in his career against Buffalo, and 0-5 in Western New York, which is where the Dolphins will play Thursday night. While those numbers look bad for Tua, there’s a lot more to the story than that.

In fact, he’s hardly the reason Miami has lost to Buffalo in the teams' recent matchups at Highmark Stadium, and it’s further proof why “QB Wins,” whether positive or negative, are a terrible stat.

Tua Has Played Well in Buffalo Recently

If you look at Tua’s numbers in his last three starts on the road against Buffalo, it’s hard not to feel like he’s been mostly let down by his defense in those games.

Across those three contests, Tua has thrown for five touchdowns and one interception, while averaging 249 passing yards and a completion percentage of 72.5. His passer ratings in those games were 104, 92.8, and 124.9, respectively.

Those are not the numbers of a player who is playing losing football on the road against a top division rival. The issue is that Miami’s defense has struggled mightily in these matchups.

In those same three games, 32, 48, and 30 points. Regardless of how good the quarterback is playing, it’s hard to win games when the defense can’t get a single stop.

This is not to say that Tua has been perfect by any means, but he’s mostly been the reason Miami has even come close to competing with Buffalo in its home stadium in recent years.

In fact, it’s almost comical to compare Tua’s numbers from his last three starts against Buffalo at Hard Rock Stadium. In those last three contests, Tua has posted three touchdowns, five interceptions, and never thrown for 200 yards.

Yet, one of those games includes his only win against the Bills. It was the early-season bout in 2022 — like the game Thursday night also in Week 3 — in which he threw just 18 passes, and the Dolphins won a low-scoring affair 21-19.

So, if Tua has played well in Buffalo recently and has beaten the Bills at home before, why are the Dolphins just 1-8 in his starts?

Tua Lacks Consistency Against Buffalo

Tua is a pretty consistent quarterback across the board. Generally speaking, you know what you’ll get from him each week in the stat and film department — whether that’s good or not is a whole different conversation.

However, you can’t quite say that when looking at his play against the Bills. In nine starts against Buffalo, Tua’s passer rating has been above 100 in three but below 65 in five of those contests.

That is a huge difference in play from game to game. Passer rating can lie, but as someone who has watched all these games from the All-22 perspective, it’s mostly in line with the film in this case.

That inconsistent play has been highlighted in his last two games against the Bills. He left last year’s Week 2 game early with a concussion, but he played horribly before that. When he returned for the team’s matchup in Week 9, he had one of the more efficient performances of his career.

So, does this let the defense off the hook? Yes and no.

In the five games in which Tua’s passer rating ended up lower than 65, Miami’s defense held the Bills to less than 30 points in just two of them. However, one was the 2023 season finale with the division on the line, so that carries more weight.

What Does All of This Mean?

The main takeaway from this should — again — be that “QB Wins” are a meaningless statistic. And that also applies to “QB Losses,” which in this case relates to this narrative that Tua plays horribly in Western New York.

That’s just not true. His first two starts against the Bills on the road weren’t good, but he’s mostly righted the ship since then. If Miami’s defense had put up anything resembling a fight in the matchup last year, the Dolphins probably would have won that game.

However, Tua does need to be more consistent against the Bills. It seems as though he’s either at the peak of his powers against the Bills or way below average.

Per usual, when a team is struggling or winning, it’s never the fault of one player or unit. Yes, quarterbacks bear more responsibility than most, but they still need help.

Thursday is another opportunity for the Dolphins to combine a strong Tua game with a solid defensive performance. We’ll have to see if they can get it done and start changing the narrative that they can’t beat Buffalo.

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