Trade Up or Trade Back? Examining the Eagles' Strategy in a Bell-Curve Draft

PHILADELPHIA — Last year, Eagles GM Howie Roseman admitted that the organization never assigns 32 first-round grades.

He proved it on draft night when the calls began at No. 22 overall as the organization tried to move up to select Jihaad Campbell, a top-half-of-the-first-round talent who was slipping due to shoulder surgery.

As the reigning Super Bowl champions, Philadelphia’s starting point was No. 32. Ultimately, Roseman couldn’t make a deal until trading up one spot with the Kansas City Chiefs to land Campbell.

This season, Roseman has been more tight-lipped while starting from the 23rd overall pick, refusing to reveal how deep the team’s true first-round grades run at the Jefferson Health Training Complex.

“Yeah, I’m not going to answer that question,” Roseman said with a smile while closing his pre-draft media availability.

Most astute observers already know the answer.

The 2026 draft is widely viewed as weaker than normal at both the top and the bottom — almost like a bell curve, according to one pro scout.

The real value lies in Rounds 2 through 4.

Honesty

Baltimore Ravens GM Eric DeCosta pulled back the curtain on that secrecy during his own pre-draft session.

“First round, there’s definitely a drop-off probably midway through the round in terms of talent,” DeCosta admitted earlier this week.

The Ravens hold the 14th overall pick after backing out of a potential trade that would have sent that selection and a future first-rounder to the Las Vegas Raiders for Maxx Crosby.

DeCosta also made it clear there won’t be much value as usual on the back end of the draft or among undrafted free agents.

“We have just under 200 players that we have ranked as draftable for us,” DeCosta said. “If the board came off exactly the same way as we have it, we’d have to go outside of that to finish our draft because there’s over 250 picks.”

Overall, the Ravens GM — perhaps being generous — said the talent level is “a little less than last year.”

If the Eagles stay put at No. 23, they will likely be selecting a second-round-level player. That makes a trade-up the clearest path toward landing a true difference-maker. Trading back to add volume for more dart throws in Rounds 2 through 4 is another option, though that’s easier said than done when many teams in the bottom half of the first round could clog the roadway south of the trade market.

“Expect the worst,” Roseman said. “I think we go into this draft being very comfortable with having 23 guys we’re ready to take. We’re there, ready and prepared for that.”

The “unicorns” who could prompt a trade-up include Oregon tight end Kenyon Sadiq or athletic Georgia offensive tackle Monroe Freeling, who has limited college experience but enormous upside.

Depending on how his Friday workout goes after hamstring issues limited his combine and Pro Day opportunities, don’t sleep on Arizona State wide receiver Jordyn Tyson either.

At No. 23, the Eagles’ comfort zone could boil down to two offensive tackles, the high ceiling of Tyson’s college teammate with the Sun Devils, Max Iheanachor, or the floor of Clemson standout Blake Miller.

“If something happens where somebody who’s higher on our board than 23rd is available, we’ll be ready for that,” Roseman said. “If there’s an opportunity that we think makes sense to move up based on the value of that player, we’ll move up. If we have multiple guys at our spot and there’s a trade that makes sense to move back, we’ll move back.”

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