Falcons vs. Packers: Three Bold Predictions for Michael Penix Jr.’s Return to Action

Week 3 in the NFL begins at Lambeau Field on Thursday night, as the Packers will welcome the Falcons to Green Bay for an 8:15 p.m. ET kickoff.

The Falcons enter this one with a new quarterback under center, as Michael Penix Jr. is making his return from a torn ACL that cut his 2025 campaign short. The 26-year-old former first-round pick now enters his first season under new head coach Kevin Stefanski and will look to give Atlanta a much-needed boost on offense. Through two games, the Falcons have resorted to playing two reserve quarterbacks in Cooper Rush and Jack Strand, who combined for a lowly 28.8 passer rating in the team’s Week 2 loss to the Panthers.

As for the Packers, they come into Week 3 with a 1–1 record that could have easily been 0–2 if not for a come-from-behind, overtime win against the Jets last Sunday. Green Bay will look to further weather the storm on Thursday night as it waits for star edge rusher Micah Parsons to return from season-ending knee surgery.

Here are three bold predictions for Falcons vs. Packers.

The Falcons will sack Jordan Love at least three times

Despite ranking in the bottom 10 in the NFL with just four sacks this season, the Falcons have one of the league’s highest pressure rates. According to Next Gen Stats, Atlanta has pressured opposing quarterbacks on 41.5% of pass-rush snaps through two weeks—the seventh-highest rate in the league.

The Packers, meanwhile, placed starting tackle Zach Bako-Bewele on injured reserve this week with a torn patellar tendon, lost guards Aaron Banks (toe) and Donovan Jennings (hand) at various points against the Jets on Sunday, and tackle Anthony Belton also popped up on the injury report this week with an elbow injury.

Needless to say, Green Bay’s offensive line is banged up, which is why I’m predicting the Falcons will finally turn those pressures into sacks and bring Jordan Love to the ground at least three times.

MORE: NFL Week 3 Picks From the MMQB Staff

Bijan Robinson will be held to fewer than 50 rushing yards—but score his first rushing touchdown of the season

Bijan Robinson is one of the best running backs in all of football. Since being selected by the Falcons with the No. 8 pick in the 2023 draft, the fourth-year pro has rushed for 1,400-plus yards twice, scored 35 total touchdowns and, in 2025, was named a first-team All-Pro as both a running back and an all-purpose player.

That said, the Packers defense he’ll go up against in Week 3 is a stout one. Through two games, Green Bay has allowed just 174 rushing yards and a measly 2.9 yards per carry. However, the Packers have also allowed three rushing touchdowns—which could bode well for Robinson in the red zone, who’s yet to score a touchdown this season.

While the 24-year-old may have a hard time breaking off chunk gains in this one, I still expect Atlanta to lean on him near the goal line. That’s why I’m predicting Robinson will rush for fewer than 50 yards—a threshold he failed to cross just five times last season—but also find the end zone on Thursday night.

The Packers will win a low-scoring battle against the Falcons and improve to 2–1

Matt LeFleur. — Matt LeFleur and the Packers got their first win of the season last week. | USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Connect

No matter how you slice it, this one has the makings of an ugly Thursday Night Football game.

While Penix’s return should give the Falcons a bit of a spark, it’s still his first game back in more than 10 months, and he’ll likely need some time to get into a rhythm with his teammates in a new offensive system. On the flip side, the start to the Packers’ season has been a less than ideal one, and could very well be exacerbated by the injuries they’re dealing with early in the campaign.

Ultimately, though, with the Packers playing at home, I expect them to come out on top—even if it’s not pretty. I’m predicting this one ends with Green Bay winning a low-scoring affair, 10–7, to improve to 2–1 on the season. The Falcons, meanwhile, fall to 0–3 with plenty of unanswered questions to begin Stefanski’s head coaching era in Atlanta.

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