Falcons HC Arthur Smith: Top 20 Coach? - PFF
The Atlanta Falcons are coming off of a middling 7-10 season in head coach Arthur Smith's first year at the helm. While many found the season to be impressive considering preseason expectations, the team's performance wasn't enough to put Smith amongst the league's best coaches.
In their recent head coach rankings, PFF placed Smith 20th, stating that, "(w)hile Atlanta as a whole struggled in Smith's first season at the helm, his performance is estimated to be generally unremarkable." This was good enough to put Smith in the tier of "average coaches."
PFF's rankings were calculated using a multilevel model factoring in talent level by way of the salaries of starters, and determined the coach's performance by estimating "their contribution(s) to points scored or allowed."
Smith didn't grade out favorably, with PFF ranking him 19th out of 26 (rookie head coaches weren't considered) offensively with +13 points scored a season, and 18th defensively with +6 points allowed a season. For reference, New England's Bill Belichick was the top-ranked coached in both categories at +121 points scored a season and -32 points allowed a season.
Smith inherited a team that went 4-12 the year before, and traded star receiver Julio Jones to the Tennessee Titans a little over one month after the NFL draft. Then, almost two months into Smith's first season, Atlanta's other star receiver, Calvin Ridley, opted out due to mental health.
There's been even more change as Smith prepares to enter his second season with the Falcons, as the team traded quarterback Matt Ryan to the Indianapolis Colts. However, the more things change, the more they stay the same; for Smith, he's been re-united with quarterback Marcus Mariota, whom he coached in Tennessee, along with six other former Titans.
Smith has now had two off-seasons to bring in players that fit his scheme. Moving forward, it's up to him to put these players in the best position to succeed. If Smith can do that, and the players can execute, it's possible that he's higher up the list next year.
