Atlanta Falcons Over/Under Win Total Revealed by DraftKings

Just two years ago, the Atlanta Falcons made the unprecedented move of signing a high-dollar free agent quarterback to a multi-year contract and drafting a quarterback in the top 10.

General manager Terry Fontenot and head coach Raheem Morris entered the 2024 season arrogant enough, or naive enough, to think they could simultaneously take a "win now" and "build for the future" approach with a team that was coming off six straight losing seasons.

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Two years later, both of them were fired, and what's worse, the Falcons still have big questions at quarterback.

The health and eventual effectiveness of third-year pro Michael Penix Jr. is one of the main reasons expectations are low for the Atlanta Falcons among sports books, including DraftKings, which set the over/under win total at 6.5 for the 2026 season.

The only teams behind the Falcons are the Arizona Cardinals (4.5), Miami Dolphins (4.5), New York Jets (5.5), and Las Vegas Raiders (5.5). No one in the NFC South is predicted to have a winning record, with the Buccaneers leading the division at 8.5.

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The Falcons are historically overlooked by national media, but when it comes to preseason predictions, they're usually overrated. Since 2018, the Falcons have only exceeded their preseason win predictions twice, in 2022 and 2025. They won seven games on a predicted 4.5 in 2022, and eight last season on a predicted 7.5.

In the other six seasons, the team has underperformed what had already been low expectations. That might help explain the coaching carousel since 2020 as well.

The Falcons needed a reset, and owner Arthur Blank cleaned house immediately after the disappointing 2025 campaign came to an end. Out went CEO Rich McKay, Fontenot, and Morris, and in came Matt Ryan as president of football, Ian Cunningham as general manager, and Kevin Stefanski as head coach.

They don't have a first-round draft pick in April's draft, and they'll have about $60 million to spend in free agency. If he's healthy, and all indications are that he'll be ready for the opening of the 2026 season, Penix will get another chance to solidify his spot as the quarterback of the future for Atlanta.

He'll need to prove he can stay healthy and that his struggles before getting hurt were a product of the team around him, including a lack of ideas from offensive coordinator Zac Robinson and the disappearance of wide receivers Darnell Mooney and Ray Ray McCloud.

Cunningham will have to restock the wide receiver room that was down to Drake London and a handful of practice squad guys last season and find more talent for defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich's defense on all three levels.

Linebacker Kaden Elliss was the Falcons' MVP on defense last season, and he's scheduled to be a free agent in two weeks. There are big questions around the availability of rookie sensation James Pearce Jr.

2026 was always supposed to be a transition year for Atlanta. The Draft Class of 2024 was made up of replacements for aging veterans, including Kirk Cousins, Grady Jarrett, and David Onyemata. They just didn't plan on losing in 2024 and 2025.

Stefanski doesn't enter the season with immediate playoff expectations with so many questions afloat. Penix gets another chance this season, and if he fails to make the quarterback spot his in Atlanta, the Falcons will be all in on quarterback in the 2027 NFL Draft.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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