Is Hayden Hurst a Good Fantasy Option vs. the Chicago Bears?

After a disappointing Week 1, Atlanta Falcons tight end Hayden Hurst fulfilled his preseason expectations as a dangerous sleeper Sunday, mostly behind a 42-yard touchdown. Hurst posted five catches for 72 yards with the score against the Dallas Cowboys.

The question now becomes whether Hurst can repeat that performance against a tough Bears defense in Week 3.

Chicago has some of the most talented defenders in the NFL, and it's shown the past two years with the Bears ranking among the Top 10 teams in several defensive categories. Chicago's defense has started this season maybe a bit slower than expected, as it's ranked 16th in yards yielded and 14th in yards allowed per play through two games.

The Bears terrific defense somewhat caps Hurst's fantasy upside for Week 3, but still, he's likely to be one of the better tight end options available to owners this weekend, especially in 12-team leagues.

Further cementing the average start for Chicago's defense, the Bears have allowed the 12th-most fantasy points to tight ends in the first two weeks. That strongly suggests starting Hurst, but digging a bit deeper, the stats still show a capped upside for the Falcons tight end.

The Bears allowed both Detroit Lions and New York Giants tight ends T.J. Hockenson and Evan Engram to record 50 yards receiving but neither one reached 70. Hockenson scored to help his fantasy total, but Engram did not.

Hurst saw his targets increase from five to eight from Week 1 to 2. His chemistry with quarterback Matt Ryan should continue to develop and improve all season.

On the other hand, excluding his 42-yard touchdown versus the Cowboys, Hurst is averaging just 9.7 yards per catch through two games. As much as fantasy owners want to continue to see more targets Hurst's way, owners starting him in Week 3 are also counting on him exploding for another big play. With a three-headed monster for the Falcons at receiver, Hurst isn't likely to receive 10-plus targets like preferred fantasy tight ends. That means Hurst must get more out of each target to be worth starting.

The Bears aren't very receptive to giving up extremely long plays to tight ends. The longest tight end play the Bears have given up this season is 24 yards. They've allowed just two completed passes of more than 20 yards to a tight end this season.

However, Hurst could see an uptick in targets should Falcons receiver Julio Jones not play. Jones is dealing with a hamstring strain and didn't practice on Wednesday according to ESPN's Vaughn McClure.

Without Jones, Hurst is a must-start option in nearly all leagues. If Jones plays, Hurst could still have a big game because the Falcons could use their future Hall of Fame receiver as a decoy. In the even Jones dresses, consider Hurst a low-end TE1 in 12-team formats.

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