Tua Tagovailoa or Michael Penix Jr.: Who Should be Falcons Starter vs. Steelers?

FLOWERY BRANCH – Atlanta Falcons Organized Team Activities (OTAs) will finish this week with the third and final sessions. The key story in Atlanta this offseason has been who will be the Falcons' starting quarterback in Week 1, when they face the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Michael Penix Jr is the incumbent who suffered a season-ending knee injury in Week 11, and he will compete with former All-Pro Tua Tagovailoa.

The Falcons signed Tagovailoa as a free agent in March to a one-year deal worth $1.2 million. His former team, the Miami Dolphins, is on the hook for $54 million this season, which worked in favor of the Falcons, allowing them to get Tagovailoa for the league minimum.

Atlanta needed some good fortune in free agency, considering they have $22.5 million of dead money on the books this season for former quarterback Kirk Cousins, who signed as a free agent with the Las Vegas Raiders.

The case for Penix

Penix was anointed the starting quarterback in 2024 after a disastrous stretch of play from Cousins. He took over the final three games of the season and showed promise with 737 yards passing, three touchdowns, and three interceptions.

He started nine games in 2025 before being injured and was inconsistent with nine touchdowns against three interceptions, while taking fewer chances downfield than he did in his three-game cameo in 2024.

The arm talent is obvious. He posted a 43.8% completion percentage on deep passes in his rookie season, which was the most out of the rookie quarterbacks, including Bo Nix, Caleb Williams, and Drake Maye.

But he’s struggled with accuracy on short and intermediate routes and has posted a 4-8 record as a starter.

In seven seasons as a starter through college and the NFL, he’s had five season-ending injuries. That’s obviously a concern, even though he’s working ahead of schedule at OTAs this spring. He looks on track to be a full participant by the time the Falcons take on the Steelers in September.

“I'm running my own race. I can't look into another lane,” Penix said at OTAs last month. “But at the same time, we are working together. That's what it's all about. Working together and working with each other to finish the race.”

Despite his 4.4 speed, Penix’s legs have never been a big part of what has made him effective. He’s fast, but he’s not a runner, accumulating 13 scrambles and 21 designed runs in 2025 according to Pro Football Focus.

The financials also play in Penix’s favor. He’s in the third year of a 4-year rookie deal worth $22.9 million, with a fifth-year option in 2028. They have time to let him prove his worth before committing long-term.

The Case for Tua

Working most importantly in Tagovailoa’s favor is his health. Penix is on track to be ready for September, but Tagovailoa is fully healthy right now. He’s also the more proven player. With a 44-32 record as a starter, a Pro Bowl, and an All-Pro nod under his belt, he’s the safer bet.

One of his strengths is one of Penix’s perceived weaknesses: accuracy.

Tagovailoa has a career 68% completion rate, and he set a career high in 2024 at 72.9%.

That said, his 2024 season was worse than his 2023 season, after only making 11 starts, and 2025 saw his career-worst 88.5 passer rate. That number tied him with Penix, who was in his first year as a starter.

So, the question becomes, are the best days of Tagovailoa behind him, or will a fresh start get his career back on track?

The Verdict:

If Penix Jr. is fully healthy post-training camp, then he should be the starter. He’s got a higher upside than Tagovailoa with the untapped arm strength, and financially, it makes more sense to back the guy with three years left on his contract than the one who is a free agent at the end of the season.

If Tagovailoa wins the starting job outright in camp, or Penix isn’t ready, at worst, the Falcons have a steady veteran who could benefit from a new change of scenery and a veteran offensive line.

But Penix is younger, under contract for multiple years, and is a more talented thrower.

If it’s close, the nod should go to Michael Penix Jr.

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